The hardest part is getting a second chance. For the Phillies, who upset several National League powers en route to a World Series appearance in 2022 before falling to the Astros in six games, running
back up that hill has proven challenging. In 2023, former Yankee bench coach Rob Thomson’s club couldn’t land the finishing blow on the tenacious Diamondbacks, dropping the sixth and seven games of the NLCS at home in a stunning reversal.
Then, after having clowned their rival Braves in each of the previous two Division Series, the shoe was on the other foot last season as the Mets shoved them into a locker. Fresh off a second straight NL East crown and a first-round bye, Bryce Harper and company’s biggest opponent in the Senior Circuit may just be themselves as they attempt to join the 1980 and 2008 clubs as the only Phillies teams to win it all.
2025 record: 96-66
Manager: Rob Thomson
Top position player by fWAR: Trea Turner (6.7)
Top pitcher by fWAR: Cristopher Sánchez (6.4)
The Phils drew a tough assignment: they will host the defending champion Dodgers in the NLDS. What’s troubling is they’ll be doing so without staff ace Zack Wheeler, who was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome after suffering from blood clots. That ended his season prematurely and cost the veteran one of his final remaining chances at a Cy Young Award. If there’s an upside, it’s that there is no team in baseball better equipped to handle the loss of Wheeler than the Phillies.
The fact is, their rotation has two aces, not one. Cristopher Sánchez (2.50 ERA, 212 K) has blossomed into one of the most fearsome left-handed pitchers in the league, building one heck of a case for the Cy Young himself. The 28-year-old finished second in the National League in innings pitched, third in ERA, second in FIP, fifth in strikeouts, and second in fWAR. Sánchez is one of the rare pitchers who can rack up both whiffs and grounders at an elite clip. The sinker keeps hitters from lifting the ball in the air, and the changeup by itself has a strikeout rate of over 40 percent.
Behind him are two more outstanding southpaws in Ranger Suárez (3.20 ERA, 151 K) and Jesús Luzardo (3.92 ERA, 216 K). Suárez is one of the premier hard-contact limiters in the league and Luzardo, while volatile, has absolutely stomach-twisting stuff when he’s on his game. That portside triumvirate will be as tough to beat as any in the postseason. Veterans Taijuan Walker and Aaron Nola should also be available; though given Nola’s struggles and Walker’s 5.07 regular season FIP, the extent of their roles remains to be seen. The NLDS schedule does allow the Phils to skip a fourth starter and bring Sánchez back on normal rest for Game 4.
That rotation will form the Phillies’ nucleus in the postseason. The more innings your starters can eat up, the less you expose yourself to the volatility of the bullpen on a given night. But Philadelphia’s relief corps, anchored by midseason acquisition Jhoan Duran (2.06 ERA with 80 K’s with Minnesota and Philly) at closer, is a robust group. Matt Strahm, Tanner Banks, and Orion Kerkering form the bridge to Duran in the ninth—but Yankees fans should keep an eye out for the ageless David Robertson, who should make the playoff roster. All in all, runs will be difficult to come by against this staff, which was the league’s very best by FIP and fWAR.
The Phillies’ lineup, talented as they come, has fallen prey to some excruciating outages in recent playoff runs. Of course, they went dormant suddenly in the final few games of the NLCS against Arizona, and they were limited to two runs or fewer in each of their three losses to the Mets last year. But when they’re clicking, it’s difficult to find any team with a more robust home-field advantage.
Bryce Harper (131 wRC+, 27 HR) is of course the face of the franchise, but impending free agent Kyle Schwarber (.928 OPS, 152 wRC+) has stolen headlines with his 56-homer career year. He fell just two round-trippers shy of Ryan Howard’s franchise record set back in 2006. Trea Turner remains a steady contributor at the dish (125 wRC+), but a defensive renaissance at shortstop (+16 Outs Above Average) has made him the Phillies’ best regular in 2025. A hamstring injury forced him to miss most of September, but he returned for Game 162.
Overall, the Phils’ offense finished top-five in MLB in all three triple-slash stats, and they finished top-ten in home runs with 212.
Beyond those three stars, the lineup thins out rather significantly. Catcher J.T. Realmuto is getting long in the tooth, and the Phils haven’t seen much in the way of progress from homegrown infielders Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. Meanwhile, the eternally fascinating Nick Castellanos has mostly tumbled out of the starting lineup entirely, replaced by Harrison Bader. The man who helped resuscitate an ailing Yankees lineup back in the 2022 playoffs has surprisingly been the most valuable hitter who got moved at the Trade Deadline (129 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR with Philadelphia). Expect him to share the outfield with some combination of Brandon Marsh, Max Kepler, Johan Rojas, and Weston Wilson.
The Phillies last saw LA in the postseason in 2009, when they dispatched a Dodgers club managed by Joe Torre for the second NLCS in a row en route to another pennant and an eventual World Series loss to the Yankees. If they can hold serve over the defending champions here, they will likely be seen as favorites throughout the rest of the playoffs, even if they start the NLCS on the road against the top-seeded Brewers (who will have to get past the Cubs). Their veteran-heavy roster boasts a plethora of postseason experience, so they won’t enter any series overawed.
That said, this incarnation of the Phillies has been known for teetering on the razor’s edge, a few steps shy of disaster. A World Series crown for the City of Brotherly Love and a bitterly disappointing Division Series exit feel like equally believable outcomes.
