The 1-2 Raiders face off against the 1-2 Bears on Sunday. EPA, or expected points added, signifies a teams efficiency and overall ability to consistently make an impact on a play by play basis. The definition of success rate is defined as a play where the offense gains at least 4 yards in either a pass or rush situation. Defensively, success rate is how often the team is allowing that rate to occur. All rankings are prior to TNF.
Raiders Offense vs Bears Defense
The Raiders are currently posting a -0.085 EPA/play, which ranks 26th
in the NFL. The negative impact for their offense largely comes in the run game where Las Vegas is posting a -0.300 EPA/rush. Essentially if the Raiders rush the ball 23 times in a game they are losing a touchdown. Currently Las Vegas ranks 31st in EPA/rush with only the Patriots (-.400) ranking below them. Additionally, the Raiders rank 31st in success rate at just 29%. As a passing offense, the Raiders are doing slightly better which is to be expected. They rank 18th in the NFL for EPA/dropback at 0.032 but 29th in success rate at 40.5%. Despite their poor offensive showing through three weeks, this week’s matchup is in the Raiders favor with the Bears defense ranking 26th in overall EPA/play on defense at 0.089, nearly the complete opposite of the Raiders. As a passing defense, the Bears who are without star CB Jaylon Johnson, and potentially others due to injury rank 23rd at .174 EPA/dropback. Chicago’s struggles continue as a run defense ranking 23rd at a -0.028 EPA/play. In terms of success rate, the Bears are allowing a 51.4% success rate as a pass defense and a 46.2% in terms of rushing offense.
The Raiders offense matches up at an interesting level vs the Bears, Las Vegas is able to get explosive plays which increase their EPA but they struggle to maintain consistent success in both the run and passing attacks causing inflated numbers and inconsistency. The Bears defense has done a good job at limiting overall explosive plays but they do struggle on a play by play basis ranking near the bottom of the NFL in total defense, especially on 3rd downs. For the first time this season, the Raiders will face a defense that is bottom 8 in terms of run defense which hopefully will allow for the Raiders to get their run offense to get a little push and find some success for what has been a poor running attack. In terms of a passing offense, Las Vegas’ struggles hopefully will improve as they can limit the turnovers and get Brock Bowers more involved (who seems to be coming along from injury). The biggest issue for the Raiders will be consistency, as they rank 32nd in success rate at 36.4% showcasing a reliance on explosive plays largely due to injuries and a horrific running attack.
Raiders Defense vs Bears Offense
Just as we all expected even 2 months ago, the Raiders defense is their “strength” right now. Las Vegas ranks 19th in terms of EPA/play at 0.038, which is heavily brought down due to the pass defense and their 43.5% success rate allowed is 14th in the NFL. As mentioned, the Raiders are struggling on defense in terms of pass defense ranking 27th overall in EPA/play at .230 though their 48.2% success rate is slightly higher at 21st in the NFL. It was expected the Raiders would struggle in their secondary, with Las Vegas allowing back to back games with a 50+ yard completion, one of three teams, to do so this season. The strength of the defense comes in their rush defense, where even despite their week 3 struggles the Raiders still rank 3rd in EPA/rush at -0.260 (was -0.412 prior to facing WSH). Despite that, the Raiders rank 12th in success rate allowed in the run game at 36.1%.
This week is a favorable matchup for the Raiders, seeing as Chicago ranks 19th in EPA/play at 0.00 (essentially they are a league average offense play to play). The Bears don’t see a ton of explosive plays, but they do a great job at limiting their negative plays as well, as seen by their 40.1% success rate ranking 26th. The Bears also struggle in the run game, which should play favorably into the Raiders hand given their strength in that aspect with Chicago ranking 29th in EPA (-0.277) and 24th in success rate (35.2%). Las Vegas has a favorable upside in the run game, though the Bears could see some consistent success in short yardage situations. The Raiders main issue that will need to be prevented is their pass defense, which as noted ranks essentially at the bottom of the NFL in not just EPA but majority of other metrics. The Bears stack up well as a passing offense ranking 13th in EPA/play (0.133) but 24th in success rate (43%) which also shows their reliance on chunk plays and a lack of foundational consistent plays.
Other Notable Metrics
The Raiders current offensive approach involves an ADOT, average depth of target, of 9.18 yards while also ranking 4th in passing yards (831), and the offensive line ranks 30th in pressure rate (28.7%) and 29th in sack rate (9.92%). The Bears are allowing an ADOT of 9.98 yards while also ranking inside the bottom 8 of the NFL for sacks and pressure rate.
Meanwhile the Bears offensive approach is quite similar to the Raiders in terms of passing ranking 7th in ADOT at 8.95 yards while also placing 10th in pass yards (742) and the offensive line is faring better with a 5.31% sack rate and 19.74% pressure rate. Much like the Bears defense, the Raiders are struggling with their passing defense and pass rush with a 9.74 ADOT allowed and also ranking bottom 8 in sacks and pressure rate.
