The Champions League is back, and with Real Madrid beginning another pursuit of the trophy that has defined so much of the club’s history, expectations will inevitably be enormous.
José Mourinho’s team enters the competition with a significantly reshaped squad and plenty of optimism after a busy summer transfer window. But where does Madrid actually stand relative to the rest of Europe’s elite?
The latest Champions League odds from FanDuel provide an interesting snapshot of how the field is viewed
heading into the competition. Real Madrid feature prominently across virtually every major market, from winning the tournament outright to finishing in the top eight of the league phase, while Kylian Mbappé is the favorite to finish as the tournament’s top scorer.
Champions League winner
Favorite: Paris Saint-Germain (+500)
Real Madrid: +650
Real Madrid have the fourth-shortest odds to win the Champions League, according to FanDuel. Paris Saint-Germain lead the field at +500, followed by Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Barcelona at +600. Madrid sit immediately behind that group at +650, with Manchester City further back at +950.
In other words, there isn’t much separating the five teams FanDuel views as the principal contenders.
Madrid’s place among that group isn’t particularly surprising. Mourinho inherited a team already overflowing with individual talent and was given significant reinforcements during the summer, including Yan Diomande, Marc Cucurella, Ibrahima Konaté, Denzel Dumfries and Bernardo Silva.
The biggest question is how quickly all those pieces come together. Madrid’s ceiling is obvious, but Mourinho is still early in the process of building the team in his image. The Champions League will provide the most demanding test of how far that process has progressed.
To reach the Champions League final
Paris Saint-Germain: +290
Barcelona: +320
Arsenal: +330
Bayern Munich: +350
Real Madrid: +360
Manchester City: +440
FanDuel takes a similarly optimistic view of Madrid’s chances of reaching the final.
At +360, Real Madrid have the fifth-shortest odds in the market, but again the margins between Europe’s leading teams are small. PSG are the favorites at +290, while Barcelona, Arsenal and Bayern narrowly sit between the defending champions and Madrid.
The numbers essentially reinforce the same message as the outright winner market: there is no overwhelming Champions League favorite. Instead, Madrid belong to a relatively tight group of teams expected to have a realistic chance of reaching the final stages.
Kylian Mbappé favored to lead the Champions League in goals
Perhaps the most eye-catching Real Madrid-related number concerns Kylian Mbappé.
Kylian Mbappé: +185
Harry Kane: +220
Ousmane Dembélé: +470
Erling Haaland: +650
Raphinha: +1900
Lamine Yamal: +2200
Mbappé is FanDuel’s favorite to finish as the Champions League’s top goalscorer at +185, narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane at +220.
There is then a significant gap to the rest of the field, with PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé at +470 and Manchester City’s Erling Haaland at +650.
For Madrid, that expectation will hardly feel excessive. Mbappé will be the focal point of one of the competition’s most talented attacks, and Madrid’s ability to make a deep run could naturally give him more opportunities to accumulate goals.
Real Madrid joint-favorites to win the league stage
Paris Saint-Germain: +500
Real Madrid: +500
Arsenal: +550
Bayern Munich: +600
Interestingly, FanDuel is even more bullish on Madrid when it comes specifically to the league phase.
Real Madrid and PSG are joint-favorites at +500 to finish first in the Champions League table, followed by Arsenal at +550 and Bayern Munich at +600.
Madrid’s eight league-phase opponents are Inter Milan, Arsenal, PSV Eindhoven, Roma, RB Leipzig, Shakhtar Donetsk, LASK Linz and AEK Atrhens. It is not an easy schedule — particularly with Arsenal among the away fixtures — but FanDuel’s numbers nevertheless put Mourinho’s side right at the top of the market.
What do the odds tell us about Real Madrid?
Taken together, the markets paint a fairly clear picture of how Real Madrid are viewed entering Mourinho’s first Champions League campaign since returning to the club.
Madrid aren’t the outright favorites to lift the trophy — PSG currently hold that distinction — but they are firmly inside the competition’s top tier of contenders. FanDuel has them fourth in the outright winner market at +650, fifth to reach the final at +360, joint-first to win the league phase at +500, and as the strongest favorite shown to secure a top-eight finish.
And individually, Mbappé enters as the favorite to lead the entire competition in scoring.
There are still plenty of unknowns. Mourinho has several new players to integrate, and the Champions League’s expanded format creates a long road before the decisive knockout rounds begin. Madrid’s schedule also includes several significant tests.
But the overall assessment from the betting market is straightforward: Real Madrid are expected to be there when the Champions League reaches its decisive stages. For a club that measures European seasons by what happens in the spring, that is exactly where they will expect to be.
