The Dallas Cowboys are hosting their NFC East rival, the Washington Commanders, on Sunday. We checked in with our sister site, Hogs Haven, for a little knowledge on the enemy. We asked five questions and got
five answers.
Blogging The Boys: How has Year 2 looked for Jayden Daniels? What has he improved on over his rookie year, and what does he still need to work on?
Hogs Haven: We have somewhat of a small sample size because he missed weeks 3 & 4 due to injury. However, I’d say he’s following a similar pattern to last year of starting the season looking a bit rusty. Last year, he started the season with a poor QBR of 31.3 and 37.8 (which was borne out by the eye test), before rebounding with a QBR of 94.8 and 92.4 in weeks 3 & 4. This year, he started out with a QBR of 51.6 and 20.3 in weeks 1 & 2, but bounced back with QBRs of 72.6 & 69.6 in weeks 5 & 6 and I think he’s back in his groove now.
He honestly looks very similar to last year, not significantly better or worse. He reportedly worked a lot on his footwork during the offseason, which should result in more accuracy and consistency on his passes, though he looked pretty accurate last year and I can’t say I see too much difference. He also added some muscle and I do think I see a bit more zip on his throws. According to PFF, his biggest weakness is making plays when moving to the left or backward, as he’s more likely to take a sack in that situation. I suspect that means he needs to be better at having awareness of pressure (particularly up the middle) and throwing the ball away before taking a sack. He relies a lot on scrambling when under pressure, but it’s harder to scramble away from pressure up the gut.
BTB: Let’s do the same question, but apply it to Dan Quinn.
HH: Honestly, I think the coaching has looked very similar to last year, with a lot of the same buy-in and effort from players, but also a lot of the same mistakes. It wasn’t just Jayden Daniels, a lot of the team looked like they were shaking off rust in weeks 1 & 2, which is probably partly due to Dan Quinn’s preference for light practices over training camp and resting starters in preseason games to keep them healthy. It’s also probably partly due to having lots of roster turnover in the offseason the last 2 years, as this roster is still very much being rebuilt from a terrible state in the Ron Rivera years.
It’s clear the defensive coaching staff (including Quinn) want to play primarily man coverage, but don’t have the personnel for it. Both last year and this year the secondary got torched in the first few games by trying to play man coverage with players (particularly older players) who are better suited to zone. Both last year and this year, they started to adjust to playing more zone in week 4, but there are still some busted coverages that may not have been there if they’d focused on installing a primarily zone scheme in training camp. Overall, I wish the coaching staff (particularly the defensive coaching staff) would do a better job of self-scouting and tailoring the scheme to the players in the offseason.
On the plus side, the special teams coaching looks much improved, though it may just be due to better personnel and another year working together. Washington has the 3rd highest special teams DVOA according to FTN, which includes the 6th-most yards gained on punt returns, 4th-fewest punt return yards allowed, NFL-highest yards gained on kick returns, and 11th-fewest kick return yards allowed.
BTB: What do you consider the biggest strengths on offense and defense for the Commanders?
HH: The biggest strength of the offense is the overall run game, as Washington is tied with the Bills for the 2nd-most rushing yards per game in the NFL. Part of this is due to a good scheme and good coaching from OC Kliff Kingsbury, who also ran a prolific run game while HC of the Arizona Cardinals. Part of this is due to the efficiency of RB Jacory “Bill” Crosky-Merritt, who is rushing at 5.7 Y/A, 3rd highest among NFL RBs. And part of this is due to QB Jayden Daniels, who is a rushing threat himself and forces defenses to maintain eye discipline to see if the ball is kept for a QB run and forces them to spread out to keep contain on the edges to defend against QB runs.
The biggest strength of the defense is the run defense against runs up the gut. Rebuilding the defensive line in the offseason was a priority for GM Adam Peters, and the additions of DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Eddie Goldman, and EDGE Deatrich Wise Jr (now on IR) were meant to do just that. In addition, LB Bobby Wagner is an excellent tackler and great at limiting runs between the hashes.
BTB: Same question, but what are the weaknesses?
HH: The biggest weakness on offense is probably the blocking from the two guard positions and the ability of the interior OL to handle stunts and blitzes. RG Sam Cosmi is still recovering from an ACL suffered in last year’s playoffs, so backup Nick Allegretti took his place to start the season. However, Allegretti struggled and Andrew Wylie was switched from backup RT to RG to fill his spot. Note, it’s possible Cosmi makes his debut this week. LG has been a bit of a placeholder since last year, with former LT Brandon Coleman starting the year at LG, but being replaced by 2022 7th-round pick Chris Paul due to performance. The fact that both guards are essentially backups and there has been a fair amount of turnover at the positions has resulted in some poor play and communication/assignment problems.
I think a lot of Commanders fans would say the biggest weakness on defense is the secondary, but I think their play has improved over the last few weeks as they switch to more zone coverage, though slot CB Mikey Sainristil has been getting picked on even in zone. However, I think the biggest defensive weakness is run defense against runs to the edge, particularly to the strong side (right of the QB). The loss of Deatrich Wise Jr really hurt the Commanders edge defense and he usually lined up on the strong side. While Bobby Wagner is strong at defending runs up the middle, he has lost some athleticism with age and has had more trouble running to the numbers to seal the edge. Likewise, our DBs haven’t looked very good tackling or getting off blocks when runners get to the second level either.
BTB: How do you see Sunday going and who wins?
HH: Sunday could absolutely go either way and I find it difficult to predict, other than to say it will probably be a high-scoring game. For some reason, Jayden Daniels struggled quite a bit both times he played the Cowboys last year (QBR of 58.9 and 16.7 in those games), so I’m hoping that doesn’t carry over to your new DC (and absent Micah Parsons). I think for the Commanders it will depend heavily on whether or not they can get their run game established and whether our secondary continues to improve in discipline and communication in zone to avoid coverage busts in the secondary. If I had to make a score prediction, I’d go something like 28-27, though it’s a coin flip which team ends up with which score.
Thanks for the knowledge, Hogs Haven.
