As the newly-minted 16th-ranked team in the country, the Virginia Cavaliers are back on the road looking to make a statement early on in conference play against the Louisville Cardinals. Winners of its
last three games, the Cavaliers come in averaging 85 points per game on 48% shooting, with the potential to gain a huge boost as sharpshooter Jacari White has been listed as ‘probable’ as of Monday night after missing the past five games with a wrist injury.
The Cardinals enter at 12-4 overall and 2-2 in the ACC and struggling so far in the new year, dropping a road game to Stanford and a home game to Duke in which they led by nine points at the half. Pat Kelsey’s team most recently took care of business against Boston College, with the game being tighter than you’d expect for the majority of 40 minutes.
Kelsey’s team is led by Ryan Conwell at the guard spot. Averaging 19.9 points per game, the lefty will be one of the best guards the ‘Hoos have seen up to this point with familiar face Isaac McKneely flanking him on the wing. The longtime ‘Hoo has found a key role in the Cardinal offense as the third-leading scorer, averaging 11.4 PPG and shooting 37.9% from three-point range.
As a team, Louisville loves to shoot the ball from deep. And while the Cardinals get up the second-most threes a game of any ACC team, they don’t necessarily shoot it efficiently, making just below 35% of those looks. Good enough to sit squarely in the middle of the ACC.
A huge opportunity awaits the Cavaliers. Here are two keys and a prediction for Tuesday night’s game, which is set to tip off at 7 p.m. on ESPN2.
Two Keys
Earn quality shots
This one comes straight from Ryan Odom at his Monday presser, saying, “One of the keys is getting quality shots on the offensive end, so that we can get into our press and begin to slow (Louisville’s offense) as best we can.”
Since the Virginia Tech loss, where the ’Hoos shot 36% from the field and 22% from three, things have looked much better from a shooting perspective. In the three wins since, UVA’s averaging 48% from the field and 32% from deep, with the Stanford game pulling things down from a three-point perspective, but to Odom’s second point on setting the defense, the ‘Hoos held Stanford to 55 points on Saturday, the lowest of any power-conference team the Cavaliers have faced this year.
Louisville comes into this game among the ACC’s worst when it comes to turning the ball over, as Kelsey’s team is averaging just under 12 giveaways a game — the fifth-worst in the league. The perfect matchup for a guy like Chance Mallory to be cut loose and fully weaponize UVA’s press, but it can only happen if the ‘Hoos play efficient ball offensively to get things set up.
Control the crowd
Cassell Coliseum was the first time this team walked into a hostile environment, which bodes well for Tuesday night, already having a juiced-up game under Odom and his team’s belt. UVA’s been much more buttoned up all around since that Tech loss and walking into what will be the first of a handful of prize fights across the ACC coming up, perhaps they can lean on the experience of that kind of atmosphere.
Louisville loves to push tempo and put up threes left and right. A playing style that acts like a powder keg that, if working well, can light up what should be a solid crowd, but can also drain the life out of a building should UVA consistently force the Cardinals into difficult looks.
The Yum! Center will be rocking for a Cardinal program that’s finally back in the mix in the ACC in Kelsey’s second season at the helm. The ‘Hoos need a solid start to corral that energy and settle into the game. Louisville’s been cursed in its own arena in games against the ‘Hoos since joining the ACC, with the ‘Hoos winning eight of the last 11 in the Yum! Center — maybe some of that De’Andre Hunter magic still lingers around the place?
One Prediction
UVA gets to play the underdog role going on the road here as a 3.5-point road dog, despite being the better-looking team the past few weeks. There’s been a different fire from the NC State game and on, and I think that shows up again on Tuesday night. Give me the ‘Hoos to make it four and a row in the first of what should be a telling three-game stretch in the coming days.
Prediction: ‘Hoos 80, Louisville 75
