Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Cubs fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
The Cubs enter today’s games with a 99.7 percent percent chance of making the postseason, per Fangraphs. That number is slightly higher per baseball-reference.com: 99.8 percent.
But the odds of them winning the NL Central title are quite a bit lower. Fangraphs puts that chance at just
12.8 percent.
So for the purpose of this SB Nation Reacts survey, let’s assume that near-certain postseason chance comes true and the Cubs are the first wild card team. It appears the Dodgers and Padres will be fighting for the second wild-card spot, with one of those teams becoming NL West champion and the other heading to the wild-card round
Which of those teams would you rather see the Cubs face?
The Cubs won the season series from the Dodgers, so they’d host all three games at Wrigley Field if those two teams met in the postseason for the first time since 2016. The Cubs won four of five from L.A. in North America after dropping the two against them in Japan. One of those wins featured an epic comeback, with a ninth-inning game-tying home run from Miguel Amaya and a walkoff single in the 10th by Ian Happ.
The Cubs and Padres season series was even at three wins each, with each team winning two of three in its home park. Thus to determine home field if those teams meet in the postsason — for the first time since a 1984 series we’d probably rather forget — we go to the second tiebreaker, which is each team’s record within its own division.
Entering today’s action the Cubs are 24-18 vs. NL Central teams with 10 games remaining (three at the Pirates, four at the Reds, three at home vs. the Cardinals). The Padres have the same interdivisional record — 24-18 vs. NL West teams, with 10 games remaining (seven vs. the Rockies, four at home and three on the road, and three vs. the Diamondbacks). The Padres would seem to have the advantage here, though their current 5-1 mark against the Rockies was all posted in April and May when the Rox were terrible. Colorado’s played better recently.
Personally, I think I’d rather see the Cubs face the Dodgers, especially if they lose the tiebreaker to the Padres. But even if they win that tiebreaker and have home games against either team, I think the Cubs match up better against the Dodgers.
What say you? Vote in the survey and the results will be posted later this week.
