With only one week left in the regular season, we all know where the teams stand. Texas A&M is undefeated and in sole possession of first place, while Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss are all tied up with one conference loss each. Georgia plays out-of-conference Georgia Tech this week, so that game doesn’t matter in the context of the SEC, whereas Alabama and Ole Miss both catch their in-state rivals, Auburn and Mississippi State.
If Ole Miss loses while Alabama and Texas A&M win, then things are simple.
The Aggies maintain the top spot, and then Alabama wins the tiebreaker over UGA since the Tide beat the Bulldogs head to head this season. If Ole Miss wins, though, is where things get interesting.
You’ll have to go to the “Official” tiebreakers published by the SEC, but the short of it is that the three-way tie between Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss will have to be broken by looking at each teams strength of schedule within the conference.
You can ignore all the parts about the “Common Conference Opponents,” as there is no other team that all three squads played against this year.
So, moving on to strength of schedule.
Alabama’s SEC opponents this season currently have a combined 29 wins. For this exercise, we’ll assume Auburn loses. The other game that will matter for the Tide is the Arkansas/Missouri game. Tennessee and Vanderbilt play each other, as do Oklahoma and LSU. So Alabama winds up with 31 opponent victories at minimum, with 32 if Missouri wins.
For Ole Miss, things are less rosy, as their schedule currently only has 21 wins. No matter what happens, they can’t catch up.
The there’s Georgia. The Dogs currently have 27 opponent victories, and once you assume Alabama and Ole Miss both get their own wins, they’ll have 29. If Tennessee beats Vanderbilt, then they’ll have 30. Either way, it’s less than Alabama, so the Tide wins out and goes to Atlanta.
Interestingly, there’s one other scenario where Texas A&M loses to Texas, putting A&M, UGA, Bama, and Ole Miss all in a 4-way tie for first place.
In this case, the Aggies have a much worse conference win percentage than both Alabama and Georgia, and even worse than Ole Miss.
However, this also gives UGA one more win on their schedule resume, leaving both Alabama and Georgia tied with 31 wins if Arkansas upsets Missouri. At this point, the tie breaker takes Alabama and Georgia to the SEC Championship, and gives Alabama the top seed since the Tide holds the head-to-head over the Bulldogs.
All that make sense?
The only thing you really need to know is that an Iron Bowl win this weekend clenches a spot in the SEC Championship game for Alabama. Win, and you’re in. The rest now doesn’t matter.
