Over two weeks, the San Francisco 49ers have exceeded expectations, securing blowout wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins to start the season 2-0. Their offense has looked on point, while their defense has allowed just 20 points through two games.
Despite some of the injuries, the 49ers have been humming, and they get the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 as they look to continue their strong start to the season. When you look at the numbers, San Francisco has done quite well across the board.
They’re fourth in points per game (31.0), eighth in yards per game (380.5), and tenth in yards allowed per game (287.0). They’ve also maintained their excellence on third downs, converting at over a 63 percent rate so far, which ranks second in the NFL. So, they’ve done well with their new personnel on both sides of the ball.
However, when you dive deeper into the numbers, there is one area that stands out for improvement. Currently, the 49ers are 17th in rushing yards allowed per game (112.0), but they’re 13th in yards allowed per attempt (3.9). Both of those numbers aren’t concerning.
But when you look at the games, the 49ers did seem to struggle with the run against both the Rams and the Dolphins in the first halves. And the numbers back that up.
The 49ers currently rank 13th in rush EPA allowed per play (-0.177). However, they rank 27th in success rate allowed (46.4 percent). When you specifically look at the first half, the 49ers’ rush EPA allowed per play drops dramatically to 30th in the NFL (0.165). Their rush success rate allowed? Easily the worst in the NFL at 60.6 percent, an ugly number.
While the 49ers have been dealing with some injuries on the defensive line, the numbers and the tape both indicate there has been a problem with the team’s run defense, which has been masked by the fact that San Francisco’s offense has just dominated opponents.
So far, it hasn’t been a problem. But we saw last year how the 49ers struggled against the run, and the defense is relying on quite a few younger players to fill the void this season. In closer games, that problem could be exemplified further.
Now, the 49ers pass defense has been quite good. They rank eighth in dropback EPA allowed per play (-0.071) and third in dropback success rate (37.5 percent). Even when games have been close in the first half, the 49ers are still ninth in dropback EPA allowed per play (-0.122) and fifth in dropback success rate (33.3 percent).
So there definitely have been some defensive improvements. But there is a concern that the rush defense could be exposed in closer games where opposing offenses can’t abandon the run in the second half. Reinforcements should join in the coming weeks, although it doesn’t seem like Mykel Williams will return to practice this week. But this could be the main deficiency for the 49ers this season.
