So many things go into an NFL team having a successful season. Coaching, injuries, roster depth, plain ol’ luck, good or bad – they can all play a part in how well a team plays. But there is one thing that is almost always a barometer of how well a team is doing, and that’s the play at quarterback.
Sure, a QB can play well while his defense lets him down (cough, 2025 Cowboys, cough), or a world-class defense can lift a team despite the shortcomings of its QB. In general, though, how your QB goes is a good
indicator of how your teams is going.
So how will Dak Prescott do in 2026? We’ll break it down into one stat – TD passes. We’ll use that as a shorthand for Prescott’s year. We have four options for the number of TD passes Prescott will throw in 2026, and offer a short reason for each range of numbers.
Less than 20
If you’re in this category, you probably believe in the recent ‘every other year’ injury curse for Prescott. In no season when Prescott plays more than 12 games has he thrown for under 20 TDs. But since 2020, Prescott has alternated injury-shortened seasons with healthy ones, and 2026 just happens to be an injury season in that cycle.
20-29
This was Prescott’s normal range early in his career. If he is in this range in 2026, it likely means the running game is really performing and the defense is keeping games relatively close so as to not force Prescott into playing hero ball. The last time Prescott was in this range was 2022 when he only played 12 games, so injury could also be the issue.
30-39
This is Prescott’s normal range at this point in his career if he plays a full season. Four times since 2019 Prescott has been between 30 and 39 TD passes when he plays the full season. This is his default mode.
40+
If Prescott finally breaks through and throws for 40 TDs or more, it could mean two things. One, the offense is on fire with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens running wild. Or it could mean the defense is terrible again and Prescott is playing hero ball. Of course, both those things could happen at once.
Vote in the poll then hit the comments to let us know your reasoning.
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