The first thing you should know is that this game matters. It matters because beating the Saints is the sacred duty of this franchise, one they need to fulfill, and in doing so leave a sour taste in the mouth of New Orleans and their fans for the first couple months of the offseason. This is important work, not to be taken lightly.
How will it go, though? The Falcons are better than they were the last time they faced the Saints, probably, but New Orleans has also clearly improved. This has led to
Saints fans having some genuine swagger, which cannot be tolerated, especially in service of the belief that Tyler Shough is not only a rare second round franchise quarterback, but an old second round franchise quarterback. To dispel that notion, Atlanta will need to build on their effort last time out when they picked Shough off once and sacked him five times, all while containing a bulldozing back in Audric Estime, keeping Chris Olave from popping off, and enduring a few half-hearted Taysom Hill snaps.
Here’s what you need to know about the season finale.
Team rankings
They have beaten four teams in a row—the freefalling Buccaneers, Panthers, Jets, and Titans—and that’s a sign of life, especially because they stomped out a Jets team the Falcons lost to. But nobody’s going to confuse the Saints with a good football team; they’re relatively stingy through the air but don’t do anything else at a super high level. There will need to be one or (hopefully) two good offseason before this roster is in real shape to contend, but Tyler Shough has given them some upside through the air and the defense continues to be better than I’d expect it to be.
The Falcons have settled in at last and chained together three wins, but their overall statistical profile still indicates something like a 7-9 win team, and they’ll end up with seven or eight wins. Again.
How the Saints have changed
Since the last time the Falcons saw them, the big shift (besides winning) has been that their running back corps has been hit hard by injuries. Alvin Kamara went down in the Saints game, and impressive rookie fill-in Devin Neal has hit injured reserve. Audric Estime and Evan Hull are the last men standing, though Estime is coming off an impressive week.
Injuries have hit the Saints hard, in fact, but they’ve managed to weather them based on a combination of improved play and an easy schedule.
They will also be without Chris Olave, who is out after doctors discovered a blood clot in his lung; thankfully that’s not expected to be a long-term problem for him, but he’s wisely getting care and not suiting up Sunday. The Saints receiving corps will be Mason Tipton, Kevin Austin Jr., and Dante Pettis.
What to know about Week 18
Everything the Falcons have done well this year will have to come together to ensure a win, and everything they’ve done poorly will need to be limited. The margin for error is wider than it was against the Rams, obviously, but games against the Saints are rarely as lopsided as the last one was.
The Saints are down to a skeleton crew at running back and wide receiver, which means the primary threats they’ll contend with are bruising plodder Audric Estime, professional annoyance Taysom Hill, and Shough. The latter has improved since the last time Atlanta saw him, avoiding interceptions the past three weeks and cutting his sack rate, but the Falcons defense is a far better unit than the sagging Jets or Titans and both forced an interception and sacked him five times last time out. His ability as a runner and strong arm still give him the potential to cause some havoc, so the Falcons can’t assume they’ll face the same largely overmatched rookie they saw last time out, even if his weapons are lesser.
Estime could be a little more challenging given Atlanta’s on-again, off-again issues with tackling. Hill will only be an issue if they let him be an issue, mostly by falling for the extremely remote possibility that he’ll pass the ball instead of simply running it as always.
The Saints pass rush will be one to watch against Kirk Cousins, as they’ve put together a quietly effective season and Cousins got happy feet under pressure last week. Leaning on Bijan Robinson, who is on fire at the moment, and Tyler Allgeier, who loves playing the Saints run defense, is clearly going to be the smart path to victory.
Otherwise, this is about avoiding turnovers and trying to force an overwhelmed Shough into mistakes without his top target. Do that and trim the penalties down and this should be a season-ending win; fail to do so and it might be the second time in three years a crushing loss to New Orleans precipitates a firing.
