The rubber match in this three-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies will feature a top-tier pitching matchup. This afternoon’s face-off between Freddy Peralta and Ranger Suárez will see two of the National League’s best pitchers determine a series victor.
The Brewers lost game one in a rather disheartening way on Monday, the club’s last in a wild sequence of 19 games in 18 days. On Wednesday, they overcame some early bad news—that Shelby Miller likely needs elbow surgery
and that Christian Yelich was scratched with the dreaded lower back soreness that has plagued him in the past—to jump on Aaron Nola early and hold on for a 6-3 win.
The news on Yelich is relatively encouraging. After yesterday’s game, Murphy said Yelich would likely sit out today’s game as well, but that he hoped to have him for the weekend series in Pittsburgh. That is indeed what seems to be the case today, and Murphy had a few more comments before the game that said that they don’t believe there’s anything wrong other than general soreness.
Today’s Brewers lineup against the left-handed Suárez features Jackson Chourio in the leadoff spot (and back in left field), followed by Isaac Collins, William Contreras (as the designated hitter), and after a day off yesterday, Andrew Vaughn. Caleb Durbin bats fifth, Danny Jansen sixth, and the lineup is rounded out by Andruw Monasterio (in at second base for the scorching hot Brice Turang, who gets the day off), Blake Perkins, and Joey Ortiz.
As for today’s pitching matchup, it’s a good one. Suárez is having his best season as a full-time starter, and has worked to a 3.02 ERA (147 ERA+) and 3.06 FIP in 21 starts and 131 innings. His walks are lower than they’ve been at any point in his career (2.1 per nine innings) and he’s striking out 8.5 batters per nine, which is right in line with what he’s done the past two seasons. Suárez’s greatest strength, though, is avoiding hard contact: he is in the 99th percentile this season in hard-hit percentage and in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity. Suárez has five different pitches that he throws at least 14% of the time, which makes it difficult to anticipate what he’s going to throw; he mixes a changeup and curveball with three different fastballs, a sinker, a cutter, and a four-seamer. The Phillies have won each of Suárez’s last three starts, and his outings on August 18 and August 24 were two of his best starts of the season, in which he went a combined 13 2/3 innings, allowed just two runs, and struck out 21 batters. He was a bit shakier last time out, though, and while he only allowed one run, he gave up ten hits and struck out only two batters.
Peralta, meanwhile, is coming off of possibly the best month of his professional career, one that saw him named the National League Pitcher of the Month earlier this week. In five starts last month, Peralta allowed only one run—earned or otherwise—and in the only game that Milwaukee lost that he pitched in, he left with a 1-0 lead. It’s been a fantastic season for Peralta, who leads the majors with 16 wins and is second among qualifying pitchers in the National League with a 2.58 ERA. Yes, Peralta is benefitting from his great defense and his ERA outpaces his FIP by more than a run, but he’s done more than enough to earn his title as this team’s ace.
First pitch today is at 3:10 p.m. central time on FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin and the Brewers Radio Network.
