Fresh off an 8-2 homestand, where the Royals improved their record to 66-62 on the season and passed everyone ahead of them in the Wild Card race and in the division, they have set themselves up nicely in the last 34 games of the season.
They are 9.5 games behind the Tigers in the division, unless the Royals go 6-0 against them, that race is too large to overcome. HOWEVER, they are the first team out currently in the Wild Card. They sit 2 games behind the scuffling Seattle Mariners, a team the Royals play
in their final homestand. They split the first four games against them in Seattle, so that three game set could determine if the Royals get in or not.
They are also just 2.5 games behind the Red Sox and 4 games behind the Yankees. Although, the head-to-head tiebreaker doesn’t fall in the Royals favor, so you can add another game to the deficit the Royals have on them. The Yankees and Red Sox do have to play 7 times against each other down the stretch, so the Royals need to be winning during that, so they can gain on at least one of them. (Boston and New York play a 4-game series this weekend).
Last season, the Royals finished 86-76, that was good enough to snag the second Wild Card spot, I do think if they post the same record, they will be playing October baseball once again. Is 20-14 down the stretch really unfathomable?? Check out some stats down below.
If they can play right about where they have been the last month and a half, they’ll get in. The schedule favors the Royals for the most part, so let’s check it out and talk about the most realistic way they can get to those 20 wins. (Obviously, results can be flipped around or the Royals do worst or better than I predict, I am just trying to pick the most reasonable and realistic path to 20 wins over the next 34 games.)
6-game road trip: Tigers and White Sox
This upcoming road trip is a big one for the Royals. Can they continue to carry that momentum from the long homestand? The Tigers after free falling have won 9 of their last 11 games and are really good on their home field. Tarik Skubal will not pitch this weekend against the Royals. Ironically enough, the Royals are 2-0 this season against Detroit when Skubal has started. They unfortunately are 0-5 in all other contests. The Royals haven’t played the Tigers since late May/early June. Both teams are different, but especially the Royals, who even in the first 7 games were right there in most of those games and easily could’ve flipped some results.
The Chicago White Sox are bad, and the Royals have beaten up on them as they should. The Southsiders have been playing around .500 ball post All-Star Break, and they took the only other series in Chicago against the Royals this season. But that’s a series the Royals should continue to add to their win column.
Final Verdict: 3-3 road trip. (Overall record: 69-65)
9-game homestand: Tigers, Angels, Twins
We already discussed the Tigers, I won’t repeat myself, but if my math is correct, Skubal shouldn’t pitch in this series either.
The Los Angeles Angels are yet to play the Royals this season. The Royals went 5-2 against them last season, and while the Angels are slightly better this season, they are 61-66 on the season and fading from the playoff race. So that could be a checked-out team by the time they roll in for the start of September baseball.
The Twins are a bunch of guys fighting for a spot on the club next year. The Royals are 5-5 against them this season. While they are still dangerous, their little surge post trade deadline has seemed to worn off. This is a series the Royals should take, if not sweep.
Final Verdict: 6-3 homestand (Overall record: 75-68)
7-game road trip: Guardians and Phillies
This weeklong road trip will be HUGE for the Royals playoff chances. While they are a currently a game ahead of Cleveland, in a couple weeks who knows where they will be standings wise. They didn’t trade too much at the deadline, but two of their better pitchers are out with gambling suspensions. The Royals are 4-5 against Cleveland this season, and if they want to have the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage if needed, they need 3 of 4 in Cleveland.
The Phillies are really good and around the time the Royals visit, might be putting the finishing touches on the NL East Division. To me, this is probably the best team the Royals have remaining on their schedule and will be the most complete team they’ll face.
Final Verdict: 3-4 road trip (Overall record: 78-72)
Final 6-game homestand: Mariners and Blue Jays
September 16-18th. Tuesday and Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon will be the three most important days of the Royals playoff chase. This is a must win series against the Mariners, to be able to win the head-to-head tiebreaker and depending on what’s happened, leapfrog them for the final spot.
The Blue Jays will be the last team to visit the K in the regular season this year, the Royals took 2 of 3 from them north of the border right after the deadline. This will be a tough battle, but a series where you again have to defend home field.
Final Verdict: 4-2 homestand (Overall record: 82-74)
Final 6 games: at the Angels and Athletics
The Royals will start in Anaheim before heading to Sacramento as they finish the season out west. They need a winning week of baseball to get in. This will be the second time they play the Angels in the month.
The Athletics swept the Royals in KC during that brutal month of June, and a lot of their young players have been playing great lately. While this A’s team is better than in recent years, they still aren’t good, and the Royals need to take advantage of that.
Final Verdict: 4-2 road trip (Overall Record: 86-76)
Results may vary, but I think the goal is 20 wins and if the Royals hit that I like their chances of getting in. Outside of the Yankees and Red Sox playing each other 7 times still, their schedules are easier like the Royals. The Mariners have a tougher go of it, and I think that’s the team the Royals are going to have to leapfrog to get into the playoffs. Let me know in the comments if you agree, think they need more wins or what series might have different results. But something we can all agree on, is that it should be a fun finish to the end and the Royals need to keep winning.
