If you’d told me on March 1st that Kerry Carpenter would be batting 6th on July 20th, I would have assumed the Tigers had the best offense in baseball, or at least that a lefty was on the mound. I would certainly have been wrong.
After years of menacing right-handed pitchers from the top of Detroit’s lineup – his 132 wRC+ from 2024-25 was tied for 23rd, among sluggers like Pete Alonso or Matt Olson – 2026 has been more of a struggle for Detroit’s resident cult favorite. Over 76 games so far, almost
every stat has gone the wrong direction, leading to an underwhelming 93 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR. This is not the Kerry Carpenter from the 2024 ALDS. If the Tigers want to see the 2026 ALDS, they’ll almost certainly need him back in form, so let’s start trying to figure this out.
The first thing to note: while injuries are part of the story, he doesn’t look injured in any observable way. Yes, he missed 3 weeks with a shoulder sprain after he ran into the wall on an insider the parker. Yes, the play was as ugly as you remember. No, I won’t show it to you; I’ll spare Kerry the embarrassment. However, that doesn’t seem to tell the whole story, as neither his sprint speed (27 ft/s) nor his bat speed (71.8 mph) have changed at all from his best seasons. It’s good that he isn’t playing through a nagging injury, but it also means a few days off won’t likely have him magically feeling better, either. If they want to fix Carpenter, they probably need to start with his gameplan at the plate.
Carpenter’s approach has typically been to swing often and hit the ball really hard. He didn’t want to walk, but by swinging early and often, he frequently ended the at-bat before he could strike out. Sure, he chased a lot, but he crushed baseballs and made a lot of contact with a fly ball heavy profile anyways, so who really cared? Unfortunately, either by choice or by chance, Carpenter has seemingly abandoned that approach in 2026 to disastrous results.
To summarize: compared to 2025, Carpenter is seeing fewer strikes, swinging at a smaller proportion of those strikes, striking out more, and making worse contact, all at the same time. On their own, none of those are good,, but combined, they’re pretty disastrous. This new approach has dropped him from 51st to 103rd in barrel rate, and his small improvements in walk rate just haven’t offset the power drop.
So the symptoms are obvious. Carpenter’s entirely out of sorts at the plate, I just don’t know why. Is it a conscious approach change after only a 3.9% walk rate last year? Is he entirely focused on ABS and challenges and letting that throw him off his gameplan? Unfortunately, I couldn’t say from here. All I know is Carpenter went from one of the most feared sluggers when you challenge him in the zone, to a near pushover. He just has rarely been on time, and his distinctive swing, heavily weighted on his back leg and looking to snap the bat off that platform, has looked out of whack most of the year.
Unfortunately, it gets even worse. For some reason, Carpenter has spent more than 60% of his games in the outfield. That is an unwise decision. Despite a strong arm and close to average speed, Carpenter is rating as one of the absolute worst fielders in the game. He’s only played in the outfield for 330 innings – the season’s had close to 900 – and yet is tied for the 15th-worst defender at any position with -7 OAA. If, for some reason, he played every inning of every game, he’d rate about as well as Andrew Vaughn did in right field that one year. I cannot stress how little of a compliment that is. Roughly average offense and bottom of the barrel defense is not a winning combination.
Now, Carpenter’s starting from such a high place that even his fall from grace has him near average at the dish. That includes 27 straight at-bats without a hit before his single on Wednesday; before his dreadful July, he had a 120 wRC+ and a concerning strikeout rate, so the tools have all been there at points of 2026. Only in June did he really break out into good Carpenter territory for a sustained stretch. Unfortunately, as the Tigers learned in May, one bad month can pretty much ruin the whole season. To force the issue in the weeklong sprint to the deadline, and through what will be a months long chase to the finish line even if things go well, they’ll need Carpenter to start slugging again. He might have to start turning it loose more aggressively to do so.
