I want everyone to be honest with themselves. Ignoring the sequencing, did you think the Cubs would be on a pace for more than 87 wins? I did. So yeah, I’m a little disappointed where this half of baseball ended up. I don’t have to convince any of you that this team left wins on the table. Though if we are being honest, this team stole a ton of games in the first half too. It absolutely won more than a handful of games that should probably have been lost while losing more than a handful that probably should have been won.
It has been that kind of an odd season.
But the team approaches today’s halfway point of the season at 43-37 and going 9-3 over their last 12 after having dropped to 34-34. Certainly, if you’d listed all of the injuries this team would face over the first 80 games, I wouldn’t have thought they’d win even 43. And yet, we’re left feeling a bit like they’ve underachieved. The only reason that ends up mattering is that the road ahead looks really bumpy and problematic.
I’ve always said that the whole thing about too many teams being in front of you is fairly overrated. The only question that matters when you fall behind the pace is if you are capable of stringing together the type of 10-game winning streak or 15 wins in 20 games type of stretch that really makes up ground. If you are that type of team, you can work your way through a crowd.
The problem for this team is that the projection going forward just can’t be very optimistic. Maybe the lineup and some let up in new injuries in the second half allows the team to play .500 or a little better ball the rest of the way. Playing .500 the rest of the way nets 84 wins. I’ll eat my hat if that is even within a few games of a playoff spot in this year’s NL.
I don’t see how this team can get on any kind of sustained streak and I don’t know how you’d convince this front office and ownership group that you can give up the kind of talent necessary to swing a needle moving trade. Without a needle moving trade, you are relying on healthy productive returns and development from within. I can allow myself to think of Matthew Boyd making strong contributions down the stretch. Do I think Jameson Taillon can? What would I be basing that on? He hasn’t had real sustained success in quite some time.
This team has been excellent against NL East teams struggling at the time the teams meet. This team has otherwise been extremely ordinary. The Cubs are 12-1 against the Phillies and Mets and 31-36 against the rest of the league. After this series, the Cubs will be done with both. The Cubs presently have more wins against the NL East (14 in 19 games) than the Central (8 in 17 games). There are a heck of a lot more games left against the Central than the East.
This series has been a lot of fun. Just prepare for a rough road ahead.
Game 79 Positives:
- The Dansby Swanson game, the Dansby Swanson series. Holy cow. Two homers, seven runs driven in.
- Michael Busch, a solo homer, a walk, a hit by pitch. Two runs driven in and one scored.
- Ian Happ, a double, a walk and a hit by pitch. He scored a run.
Game 80 Positives:
- The Mets defense isn’t ours and their pitching may be in further disarray as a result.
- Nico Hoerner with a three-double game and three runs scored.
- Dansby Swanson, three more hits, one a triple and four runs driven in and one scored. Stole a base. First Cub ever to have three straight four+ RBI games. 15 runs driven in already in the series. Already a record vs. the Mets.
- Pedro Ramirez with a three-hit, four-run, two RBI, two stolen base game.
Game 79, June 24: Cubs 10, Mets 3 (42-37)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.347). 2-4, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Michael Busch (.274). 1-3, HR, BB, HBP, 2 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.082). 1-3, 2B, BB, HBP, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Pedro Ramirez (-.184). 0-3, SH
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.081) . 0-5
- Kid: Javier Assad (-.061). 5 IP, 21 BF, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 5 K (W 6-1)
WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s sixth inning three-run homer gave the Cubs a three run lead. (.356)
Mets Play of the Game: Jared Young’s two-run homer with no outs in the fourth opened the scoring in the game. (.194)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 80, June 24: Cubs 10, Mets 5 (43-37)
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pedro Ramirez (.261). 3-5, 2B, 2 RBI, 4 R, 2 SB
- Hero: Dansby Swanson (.200). 3-5, 3B, 4 RBI, R, SB
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.156). 3-5, 3 2 B, 3 R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Shōta Imanaga (-.167). 5.1 IP, 20 BF, 4 H, BB, 4 ER, 4 K (W 5-6)
- Goat: Michael Busch (-.137). 0-5
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.103). 0-5, DP
WPA Play of the Game: A.J. Ewing’s two-run homer with two outs in the second gave the Mets a two run lead.(.207)
Cubs Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s RBI-triple with a runner at second and no outs in the sixth inning gave the Cubs a 5-4 lead (.182).
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 78 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong over Dansby Swanson 59-50 (113 total votes).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +20
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +19
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Carson Kelly +12.5
- Michael Conforto +9
- Jacob Webb/Jameson Taillon -8
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Caleb Thielbar -13
- Seiya Suzuki -22.5
Dansby Swanson is +7 over the Cubs last six games to leave the bottom of the leaderboard.
Up Next: The fourth and final game of this series and seventh and last game of the season series. The Cubs are a perfect 3-0 in the series and 6-0 on the season against the Mets. Matthew Boyd (2-1, 6.00) returns. He’ll face Freddy Peralta (5-6, 4.83).
