I’ll confess that I don’t know what the plan is for the San Francisco Giants. It was a lot easier when the nerdy front office telegraphed its statistical interests and preferred player profiles, but these 97-game losers are sort of inscrutable. High contact hitters? Sure. Sinker-slider pitchers with strikeouts and velocity secondary? Okay. Winning? Optional. It leaves me feeling a little uncertain about which way the team will go with most of its roster decisions and even how they might decide with their
arbitration eligible players.
On Friday night, MLB Trade Rumors posted their annual salary arbitration projection article, which uses Matt Swartz’s formula and has come pretty close to nailing the final figure year in and year out. Last year was a little bit different for we spectators and the formula’s relevance concerning our favorite team. The San Francisco Giants had three arbitration-eligible players, with two (Patrick Bailey & Ryan Walker) just missing the eligibility cutoff.
- JT Brubaker (5.162) — $2.1MM | ACTUAL: $1.82MM
- Andrew Knizner (5.090) — $2MM | ACTUAL: designated for assignment
- Joey Lucchesi (5.047) — $2MM | ACTUAL: designated for assignment
Of course, both non-tendered players wound up back with the organization at some point in 2026 — Luccehsi in a Spring Training deal he opted out of when the Giants picked up Ryan Borucki and Knizner in a major league deal back in August to give depth to a depleted catcher corps. Supremely low stakes and low performance all around (these three players combined for +0.7 fWAR in 2025 and -0.4 in 2026), but it’s worth pointing out that being a Major League Baseball player isn’t easy. Fewer than 1,000 dudes a year are good enough to play it.
These arbitration eligible players amount to cases for the team to contemplate as they approach the offseason. They can always sign these players to a contract before anything becomes fraught. That’s where the MLB Trade Rumors formula provides insight. This is the general range if not exact dollar amount teams an player alike are starting with; arbitration-based salaries are based on recent MLB history, but also need. Sure, the team might need player X, but not at cost Y. Sometimes, cost Y is a virtual given, but player X might not be quite worth it — and that’s when you see non-tenders. A non-tender is a team giving up their exclusive “rights” to or “control” of a player, but it doesn’t mean team and player can’t negotiate anymore. And, of course, in addition to non-tendering or winding up in an adversarial arbitration hearing, a team and player can simply agree to a contract.
I mention that because the commentariat seems to think that will happen with one of the Giants’ potential arbitration cases. So, let’s get into these cases, ending each one with my own judgment about what the Giants should do. I used to describe these as “predictions” because I felt a little more confident about what the team’s goals were or what sort of player profiles interest them, but as I mentioned above, I have no idea what’s going on with the team day to day. They do need to improve, though.
Camilo Doval
MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $6.6 million
Yeah, let’s just get the big fish out of the way. The Giants put in a waiver claim at season’s end after the Pirates tried to save a few bucks once it was clear their Wild Card aspirations were toast — okay, and “the Pirates decided that 19 innings with 14 walks allowed was enough to cut bait” — and he wound up being the Orange and Black’s best healthy reliever on the final day of the season.
My poor eyes did wind up popping out of my skull a little as I took a look at his end of the season Statcast. First, I’ll backup your skepticism with his Statcast charting from 2023-2026. Clear decline:
On the other hand, take a look at how his pitch arsenal compares to the rest of the sport:
For velocity:
#13 in sinker (98.2 mph)
#1 in cutter (98.8 mph)
#33 in slider (89.0 mph)
#2 in changeup (94.5 mph) — only threw this pitch 25 times
For spin:
#7 in sinker (2,530 rpm)
#29 in cutter (2,561 rpm)
#30 in slider (2,691 rpm)
#103 in changeup (1,807 rpm) — only threw this pitch 25 times
For xwOBA:
#40 in sinker (.330), +2 RV
#68 in cutter (.358), -4 RV
#28 in slider (.232), -1 RV
XX in changeup (.055) +1 RV — only threw this pitch 25 times
When you look at where he lands on these lists, he’s basically a perfectly average or slightly above average pitcher. The pitch characteristics in the broadest possible sense (velocity and spin) still put him among the elite relievers in the sport, but we know from experience and even from this data that he’s not that. But the temptation ought to be there to see if it’s still possible to coach up control to go with the stuff.
And then there’s another stat to throw in here. Run Value is a stat that is a straightforward scoring of a pitch (ball, strike, home run) without the outcome weighing on it (a ball that’s ball four, a strike that’s strike three, a home run that drives in 3 runs). But Statcast has now added Leveraged Run Value:
Leveraged run value weights the impact of a play based on the base/out situation — in a higher-leverage situation, the positive or negative run value resulting from a pitch will be greater. Hitters and pitchers who have better “clutch” performances might have higher total run values using the leveraged version. This leaderboard also includes how much extra run value a player gains or loses from his performance in different leveraged situations.
That’s very valuable for a reliever. Context-neutral, Doval is below average, with his pitching amounting to a -2 in Run Value (2o1st out of 300); and, unsurprisingly, Doval is far from elite even by the Leveraged Run Value measure, but at +2, he’s 89 out of 300 — above average, suddenly. Not tremendously so, but about as effective as Seranthony Dominguez was this year, and he signed a 2-year $20 million before the start of the season and wound up exactly replacement level (0.0 fWAR). Doval was about the same this year: 0.1 fWAR across 3 teams, his same value in 2024 over a full season for the Giants (he was +0.6 last year for the Giants & Yankees).
Tender or non-tender? TENDER.
At the time of the acquisition, and because of MLB Trade Rumors’ tremendous track record in projecting arbitration salaries, most people (myself included) following the transaction closely — not just the storyline of his return, but that he was in good health and still throwing 98+ and had another year of team control — took this part of the MLBTR article as fact when formulating their opinion about what the Giants might do with him now that he was back in the fold:
Doval is making $6.1MM this season and can be retained for next season via arbitration. He won’t be able to get a huge raise based on this year’s 4.30 earned run average, but should be able to get into the $7-8MM range.
Now they’re projecting something distinctly different and in the much more reasonable in terms of the Giants tendering him a contract. Now, the team could still tender him, fail to come to an agreement, file a number with the arbitration panel and lose that case in which they could pay more, but then they could pull a J.D. Davis on him. On the other hand, why not keep him, or come to some sort of deal that’s in the $6.5 million range with some incentives for games finished, provided he can win back the closer job he had in his previous stint? This is about the going rate for a reliever of his type.
Rowan Wick
MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $800,000
Tender or non-tender? TENDER, but… the Giants already hold an option for 2027. He was signed before 2026 with full knowledge that he would spend the entire 2026 rehabbing. He hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2022, spent all of 2023 in the minors, but in 2024 & 2025 pitched in Japan where he had ERAs of 3.09 and 1.32 ERA.
According to the big injury update we received last Tuesday, is in Arizona throwing two side sessions per week and is expected to transition to live BPs in October. He turns 34 in November.
I’m sure his inclusion on this list is only a technicality. The Giants haven’t officially announced that they’ve exercised his option and, therefore, his MLB service clock (4.114) would trigger a sort for arbitration eligible players without a contract already for 2027. But, it’s more correct to say that the team has 8 arbitration-eligible players… or fewer, if these next couple of cases don’t actually land on the right side of the cutoff.
José Buttó
MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $800,000
My reservations about José Buttó stem entirely from his lack of an option. His 3.83 FIP from (2023-2025) is slightly more encouraging, but the 4.43 xFIP isn’t. A blood clot is a scary injury to come back from and there could simply be a numbers game the Giants can’t make work.
From a human being perspective, tendering him a contract allows him to continue his rehab with the team until the lockout hits. On the other hand, it’s hard to know just who the Giants have. He was truly dominant in 2024 and the 2025 results are approaching the polar opposite. 2026 was an injury year. Does the cycle reset and he returns to a sub-.200 batting average against guy?
Tender or non-tender? NON-TENDER.
Sinkers are still the coin of the realm (+331 Run Value, league-wide, compared to -31 for four-seamers), but Butto’s 94-96 version is easily duplicated with players the Giants already have on hand and the roster spot might be more important going to a more experienced or talented veteran or simply paying a little bit less to get more upside. If this year hadn’t been such a catastrophe in the bullpen, then I might’ve said he was an easy tender. Now, I think the team needs to cool it on their practice of holding spots for guys returning from injuries.
Now, last year, I ran into a problem where I didn’t factor in the Super Two cutoff (how early players could be eligible for arbitration), but as I’ll note below, it would seem that this case and the next one do meet the criteria for arbitration in 2027.
Randy RodrĂguez
MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $800,000
As with JosĂ© ButtĂł, RodrĂguez appears to be just past the cutoff point for arbitration eligibility. From this August post on MLB Trade Rumors:
[…] players automatically qualify for arbitration when they have at least three years of service time and don’t already have a guaranteed contract. For players who finish a season between two and three years, the top 22% of players in terms of service time also qualify, as long as they spent at least 86 days of the most recent season on the active roster or injured list. The cutoff will vary slightly from year to year, depending on the details of the players in the 2-3 window. Looking at previous years, the recent cutoffs have been as low as 2.115 and as high as 2.146:
2025: 2.140
2024: 2.132
2023: 2.118
2022: 2.128
2021: 2.116
2020: 2.125
2019: 2.115
2018: 2.134
2017: 2.123
2016: 2.131
2015: 2.130
2014: 2.133
2013: 2.122
2012: 2.140
2011: 2.146
Rodriguez is at 2.148, which would seem to just surpass the cutoff, based on history (Butto is 2.168). It’s immaterial to his case, of course, as the Giants will tender him a contract and sign him to a deal.
Tender or non-tender? TENDER. The only thing that might be interesting to see is if they sign him to a multi-year deal or include some incentives in this next one. On the other hand, he is the closer in waiting who’ll be 27 in 2027. His agent could simply ask for something more in line with those figures. The arbitration panels aren’t a total free-for-all — he could only be compared to players who’d previously been in his situation: a 27-year old right-handed relievers in his first year of arbitration. They also tend to emphasize counting stats, and with only 4 major league saves under his belt, it’s probably not a compelling case. Still, his talent is sort of undeniable and so the Giants might not actually have as much leverage in this situation. But they have to make sure they don’t accidentally set a new precedent for future arbitration hearings or agents. Maybe they don’t throw $1-$1.5 million his way, but don’t be surprised if they wind up signing him for a number greater than $800,000… unless MLB Trade Rumors projected the cutoff incorrectly again and this is another Patrick Bailey/Ryan Walker situation where he (and Butto) aren’t actually arbitration eligible.
Okay… have I sufficiently C’d my A? Moving on…
Casey Schmitt
MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $2.5 million
Tender or non-tender? TENDER. I didn’t want to waste any time on this one. Obviously, the Giants will hold on to Schmitt. Will they sign him for greater than the projected $2.5 million is the only question. He certainly has a case with being a potential multi-positional player; but, at the same time, this is probably a fair deal for a guy who might struggle to replicate the great season he just had. A .780+ OPS with a ~.300 OBP is tough to sustain over a full season.
Andrew Knizner
MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $1 million
He has put up some traditional backup catcher numbers in the parts of two seasons he’s played for the Giants. A .620 OPS in 168 PA across 62 games is definitionally “backup” but also “fungible.”
Tender or non-tender? NON-TENDER. There’s not too much separation between a million bucks and the league minimum, but every $10,000 counts and non-tendering doesn’t foreclose the possibility of his return (again), but the Giants have a lot of catching options at this point and if they’re really wanting to spend a little money, there are likely to be better options on the open market.
Jason Foley
MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $2.3 million
The Giants signed him in the offseason to a 1-year $2 million contract. According to MLB Trade Rumors’ previous projection, that was under the $3.15 million he would’ve made in arbitration, and so you can see why teams make these strategic non-tenders. Foley missed 2025 recovering from surgery and the Tigers decided to reallocate that money for other purposes (losing the AL Central and trading away Tarik Skubal, I guess). The Giants came in and offered him a number below that projection and now he’s projected for a number that’s still less. The Giants could easily re-sign him for another $2.5 million, but let’s consider Foley’s case in full:
A 4.15 ERA in 26 IP with a 4.22 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. Prior to joining the Giants, he had a career 2.3 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9. Those were 3.8 and 5.2 with the Giants. Now, it was his first year back from injury, and as Zack Minasian has pointed out, it’s the second year when the real pitcher reasserts himself. Is Foley’s peak that of a late inning reliever who can help out in high leverage?
If they keep Doval, then it’s Doval, Rodriguez, Dylan Smith (?), and Jason Foley as quasi-late inning reliever guys. All of them (Rodriguez included) seem best-suited for the 7th inning at best. As four arms in an 8-arm bullpen, though? That could work. Leaves two spots for a pair of left-handed relievers and two spots for late inning guys (an 8th inning guy and a closer). But does that configuration make sense? No space for a long reliever (unless it’s one of the lefties) or, say, Trent Harris, whose velocity gets more strikeouts and will cost substantially less.
At the same time, didn’t the Giants sign him in order to re-sign him? He suppressed home runs and got a lot of groundballs — exactly what they were looking for from him.
Tender or non-tender? NON-TENDER. The Giants aren’t going to blow up their payroll to win 10 more games in another meaningless season and so I think trying to save money where they can could simply mean non-tendering one of the relievers in a relief corps that didn’t bring much joy this season. It gives them some flexibility, too. Doval and Rodriguez are power arm additions to the 2027 bullpen and so Foley is at least a different look that could be effective, but the Giants had the fewest strikeouts in MLB in High Leverage situations (6.13 K/9), the second-most walks (5.12 BB/9), and the fifth-worst ERA in those situations (11.04).
Sam Hentges
MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $2 million
Hentges had a very interesting year in that his relative success (0.5 fWAR, 10.1 K/9, 0 HR allowed, 3.19 ERA / 3.24 FIP in 45 G) came from some very limited leverage (1.02 average leverage at start of appearance; 36.2 IP). But he walked 25 batters in those 36.2 innings and he had a severe reverse platoon split:
vs. LHH — .328/.434/.358
vs. RHH — .173/.311/.240
He was also a tremendous jerk. But that might be a feature rather than a bug. We don’t know yet what the Justice Department’s pursuit of justice against the Giants will be, but it’s entirely possible that Hentges could file a Civil Rights claim against the team for non-tendering him.
Tender or non-tender? TENDER. It would be surprising if the Giants non-tendered a bible thumper who had a superficially good year and figures to get better in his second year removed from injury. I personally don’t believe the team should hold space for acknowledged bigots, but I have to accept that they do. And so, if bigots are on the menu, then this is one to keep in the fold.
Ryan Walker
MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $1.6 million
This would be a strategic non-tender under most circumstances:
2023: 61.1 IP, 3.23 ERA / 3.68 FIP, +0.7 fWAR
2024: 80.0 IP, 1.91 ERA / 2.52 FIP, +1.7 fWAR
2025: 61.1 IP, 4.11 ERA / 3.30 FIP, +0.6 fWAR
2026: 32.2 IP, 7.16 ERA / 5.52 FIP, -0.5 fWAR
He’ll be 31 in 2027 with a pair of options. He still throws 95 with his sinker, but that slider spin rate dipped to 2,499 rpm this season. In 2025, those averaged 96 and 2,696, respectively, so that’s a meaningful slip. Another team could probably work to fix his mechanics, or maybe the Giants have a plan to do that. His time in the minors didn’t seem to help with that this year, and with a planned lockout, the Giants aren’t going to have much time to work with him in the offseason.
But, yeah, the Feds.
The Giants are under a microscope in one particular instance. Ryan Walker might be simply uncuttable.
Tender or non-tender? NON-TENDER. Still, he was tremendously bad. Can’t he just get a job in the administration or in right wing media as a victim of Woke? Or… with the Rays on a minor league deal and return to his 2024 form?
So, this is around $13 million in commitments, which would put them around $157 million in salary ($160 million for the current CBT). But who do you think the Giants will keep — or should keep?
