Did anything of note happen at Wrigley Field on Thursday afternoon? On a day that looked absolutely beautiful and at a generally pleasant time of the year to be at the Friendly Confines, I hope a few of you were there for this one. For anyone who was, I’m genuinely jealous. I’ve spent many days and many nights in that park and have almost universally loved my time there. I’ll forever miss it.
It started with Pete Crow-Armstrong walking and stealing second to reach the 45/40 plateau. A season that
is truly for the ages. So many words have been said about his season that anything I can come up with will be repetitive. But, I tip my hat to the youngster. His stardom was apparent quickly upon taking the field for the first time in the Cubs organization and with each stop, seemingly each passing month, that star has burned brighter and brighter. The friendship and bond that has developed between PCA and Seiya Suzuki has been terrific. So it is no surprise that Seiya found himself musing that he believed that Pete is capable of 50/50. No pressure, kid. That would be an incredible encore.
Maybe it shouldn’t be surprising, then, that Seiya hit a homer on Pete’s big day. It was the homer the Cubs needed. For those who weren’t watching the Marquee broadcast, you missed an uncanny statistic. I believe the stat was starting from August 1. The Cubs are 0-13 when they fail to homer. With Thursday’s win, they are 26-13 when they do. That’s an incredible number. They got the long ball and finally the pitching staff got the memo. That is, clearly the Cubs were good for two runs per game this weekend. They scored exactly two and no more in all three games. Matthew Boyd got the message and held the Marlins to one and two relievers made it hold up.
It’s the Marlins and not any of the five other NL teams that will eventually be in the playoffs, but it’s not nothing that over 27 regulation innings in this series, the Cub pitching staff held the Marlins to five total runs. You could spend the next week whining about what the Cubs aren’t. Or, you can imagine what this team is technically capable of and just enjoy the ride.
It wasn’t just Seiya behind the offense, though. And it wasn’t just a big day for Pete. There was definitely a feeling that Ian Happ was playing his last regular season home game as a Cub. I get that there is a significant longevity difference between Happ and Suzuki, but it was hard not to have the impression that it was Ian’s last game at home for the Cubs, but not for Seiya. Maybe I’m reading too much into something that wasn’t there. Ian is the longest-tenured Chicago athlete right now and received his due respect from the Wrigley faithful. Hat tip to Ian for the leadoff triple in the sixth inning that led to the decisive run. Nico Hoerner came up with the key hit to get him home and then Boyd, Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn held it down.
What if, bear with me, Zeferjahn is good? You don’t have to squint a lot to see it. Now would be as good a time as ever for that to be true. Further, his team control stretches beyond this year and with no significant change to the free agency system could belong to the Cubs through the end of the decade. The stuff definitely can play. The only question is if he ever puts it all together. All the skills are there. It’s only a matter if he can find the sequencing and learn the skills of a leverage reliever, particularly the skills of a leverage reliever in a media crucible like Chicago.
For that matter, Daniel Palencia could also be with the Cubs through the end of the decade. With all of the Jed Hoyer can’t build a bullpen and the Cubs can’t develop relievers memes, it’s possible that he traded for both with the Cubs finishing the development on Palencia after obtaining him. Maybe not. Maybe one or neither never get there. But they could. The Cubs just might have two dynamic relievers in house. The conversation about development of pitchers can be one where people move the goal posts. How much involvement entails development? Palencia played six games total, 14.1 innings outside of the Cub organization. Did they not theoretically develop him?
Anyway, that’s an argument for another day. But I’m happy to devil’s advocate on behalf of the Cub organization. They are definitely not a top tier draft and development organization. But it’s disingenuous to say they are a bottom tier one either. There are definitely misses, but there are a lot of hits too. There are less home runs than you’d like. I won’t argue with that. But there are plenty of hits in draft and development too.
I was happy to see the team pop some corks. It’s a good experience for the team. It was so apropos that Craig Counsell took only a short amount of time to address the team in the locker room after the game. And he called out one group in the organization. It was the training staff. Talk about a group that had to work overtime this year and surely lost a lot of sleep at times.
On to Boston. Let’s look at the numbers.
Three Positives:
- Boyd. Seven innings, one run. The hero the team needed. He started Opening Day and then he was the guy on the hill when they clinched a postseason appearance for a second straight year since he got here.
- Seiya Suzuki seemed to have let some of the stress out of the park with his game tying homer.
- Ian Happ with a triple leading off the sixth, leading to the second run.
- Hat tips to Nico Hoerner, Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn.
Game 159, September 24: Cubs 2, Marlins 1 (88-71)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matthew Boyd (.318). 7 IP, 27 BF, 5 H, 2 BB, 1 R, 3 K (W 10-5)
- Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.178). 2-3, HR, BB, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Ryan Zeferjahn (.167). IP, 3 BF (Sv 3 Cubs, Sv 7 total)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Michael Busch (-.123). 0-4
- Goat: Carson Kelly (-.114). 0-3
- Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.106). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s solo homer with one out in the fifth inning tied the game. (.163)
Marlins Play of the Game: Jacob Marsee singled with two outs and a runner on second in the third inning, giving the Marlins an early 1-0 lead. (.120)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 158 Winner: Dansby Swanson received 23 of 43 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Alex Bregman +26
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +25.5
- Shōta Imanaga +15
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Michael Conforto +12
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Dansby Swanson -15
- Nico Hoerner -16
- Caleb Thielbar -17.5
- Seiya Suzuki -18
Scoreboard Watching: The Phillies lost. They are now a game behind the Cubs and the Cubs own the tie breaker. That puts the Cub magic number at 2 as to the Phillies. The Padres were playing late as I was writing. They were up 4-0. It looks like they’ll remain one ahead of the Cubs (with the Cubs still owning the tie breaker). That puts the Cub magic number at 4 as to the Padres. The Phillies have kept the Diamondbacks alive with their late struggles. The Diamondbacks are just two back of the Phillies.
Up Next: Phillies host the Rays who have locked up home field advantage through the AL playoffs. The Padres host those Diamondbacks who are trying to crash the party. That’s going to be a wild weekend. The Cubs travel to Boston where the Red Sox are already locked in as Wild Card two in the AL and will visit their old pals from New York for a best of three Wild Card series. Just for fun, the Cubs get to play a double header on Friday. If Google hasn’t misled me, 70% of doubleheaders in 2026 resulted in splits. I was surprised to see that historical data shows sweeps happen about as often as splits with the data bouncing around year to year. Sweeps have a slight historical edge.
We check back with Fangraphs. They have the teams splitting two close ones. Clay Holmes (6-8, 3.25) starts the first game. Clay is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA in three September starts. The Cubs gave him a full week off before making this start. He was 2-2 with a 1.55 ERA in five August starts. We need August Holmes back. He didn’t face the Red Sox this year. David Peterson (9-8, 4.96) starts game two. David is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA this month (4 starts) and was 1-0 with a 2.83 ERA in August (5 starts, one relief appearance). As I said the last time, Peterson a a Cub has either been excellent or terrible with nothing between really.
MLB.com is only listing one of the two Red Sox starters. That is Brayan Bello (6-7, 4.49). He’s made 25 appearances for the Sox, 10 of them starts. Last time out, he allowed one run to the Rays over eight innings. He’s been terrific in two September starts (1 run in 13 innings). He did have a relief outing where he allowed four runs in three innings of work. He’s bounced in and out of their rotation all year and he’s done well with it. It appears that Alec Gamboa is likely to start the other game. Gamboa is 1.0 with a 1.16 ERA over 31 innings. He’s made two starts in 20 appearances. His longest outing of the year is just four innings and he’s topped out at 63 pitches and that was back in July. He’s not thrown even 30 pitches this month. So this is a true opener, albeit a fairly dominant one.
The Cubs will not see the front end of the Red Sox rotation. It’s very likely they won’t see anyone with any kind of nagging injuries. I wouldn’t imagine they’ll put any of their relievers into particularly strenuous positions, though most of them will probably work at least a little to stay on rotation. Prepare for a weird weekend and both teams griping about the decision making.
Hopefully, the Cubs can find some wins in all of this.
