If you were an outsider to Cubs/Mariners on Friday night, it was a thrilling back and forth game. The Mariners appear to be a team on the outside looking in, though they are within striking distance of a division title in a down year for the AL West. Despite that, this had that feel of playoff baseball, with each team surviving big blows from the other team only to keep on battling. These are the days that I most hate the ghost runner in extra innings. A competitive back and forth game between two
teams that are playing well decided because one team didn’t score in the top half. I’m not sitting around hoping that a competitive game will just get snuffed out.
The Cubs have won a bunch of these, so I’m not going to sour grapes it from a Cub perspective. To be fair when it went extras, I thought there was a good chance of the Cubs adding yet another last team at bat win to their resume. There is some overlap in these two numbers, but the Cubs lead MLB with 13 walk-off wins and also lead MLB with 11 extra inning wins. Add in some games where the Cubs took the lead at home in the bottom of the eighth or on the road in the top of the ninth and the Cubs have won a lot of their games in their last at bat.
Friday night wasn’t one of those. This was their seventh extra-inning loss. They’ve also been on the wrong end of a good handful of these games at the very end. The good news is that Cub baseball has been competitive down to the end of way more games than not. And looking over the various metrics, a last at bat decision is the most common Cub occurrence (in one direction or the other) and the next most common is the Cubs blowing out their opponent. So if you were watching Cubs baseball at any time this year, there is a fair chance you were being entertained.
That doesn’t provide a lot of comfort, though, when the Cubs had their last three hitters in their lineup up for the 10th inning while the Mariners were in their middle third. The only silver lining was Nico Hoerner being the runner for the Cubs and he did steal third, but it was too late and the Cubs didn’t get him home. The Mariners were able to use a sacrifice and an RBI single to walk it off.
Matthew Boyd had an uneven start for the Cubs, so he’s had a couple of rougher ones after a long stretch of very good ones. The Cubs have six weeks to get Boyd and Clay Holmes dialed in so they can try to win a tough postseason series. The Cub bullpen was very good, including the return of Daniel Palencia. That was great to see. Ryan Zeferjahn was on the mound for the loss. Pitching in extra innings has about the most generous grading curve ever from me. If you throw a scoreless inning, I’m going to praise you. It is literally designed to produce immediate scoring. If you don’t allow a big crooked number, I’m basically giving you a pass. So I’m not frustrated with Ryan about Friday’s outcome. I see the talent and why they landed him. I can’t imagine how you have him on a playoff roster at this point. Again, six weeks to try to unlock something usable there.
Close doesn’t count very often and I don’t imagine it’s a lot of cushion for anyone who stayed up late to watch that game. Another day off of the calendar. Another tough road trip. The good news is that this team is positioned very well as second place teams go. The bad news is that it’s going to be extremely difficult to catch the Brewers without sweeping the head to head games, a a VERY tall order indeed.
Three Positives:
- Alex Bregman looks like a world beater in the second half. Two more home runs and three driven in. Added another hit on top of that. The season line creeps up to .258/.347/.418. Those first two numbers are now within shouting distance of his career numbers. He’s going to need to stay on a tear with his power numbers. But he has now matched last season’s homer number and exceeded his runs scored and runs driven in, though those last two numbers are very much context driven.
- Ian Happ had a double and a solo homer (and three strikeouts). The batting average is unsightly at .216 but his on base (.323) and slug (.414) aren’t far off of his career numbers either.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong with another leadoff homer and was also intentionally walked in the game. 40/40 is slowly coming into shape. He’s got to stay locked in, but what a monster season he is having.
- Welcome back, Daniel Palencia! He threw a scoreless inning that included two strikeouts.
Game 129, August 21: Mariners 6, Cubs 5 (74-55)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.470). 3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, DP
- Hero: Jacob Webb (.131). IP, 4 BF, H, K
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.036). 1-4, HR, BB, RBI, R
Note: Alex Bregman adds the ninth highest WPA game of the season after adding the fourth highest on Tuesday (.537).
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Matthew Boyd (-.300). 6 IP, 27 BF, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 R (4 ER), 3 K
- Goat: Michael Conforto (-.217). 0-4, HBP
- Kid: Ryan Zeferjahn (-.194). 0.2 IP, 4 BF, H, BB (L 4-4)
WPA Play of the Game: Leo Rivas’ walk-off single in the tenth. (.371)
Cubs Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s solo homer in the ninth to tie. (.366)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 128 Winner: Clay Holmes with 47 of 70 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +28
- Alex Bregman +24
- Shōta Imanaga +14
- Trent Thornton/Carson Kelly +13.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Edward Cabrera -12.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -18.5
Scoreboard Watching: Braves lose (one up on Cubs) to Brewers (six up). Phillies win (three back). Diamondbacks win (six back). Padres win (five back). Dodgers win (four up). So basically every game went the least favorable direction for the Cubs yesterday. That makes that close loss sting twice as hard. But still, really well positioned. With the Cubs having the tie-breaker on the closest Wild Card team, they have a four game cushion with 33 to play.
Up Next: Game two of the series sees David Peterson (7-7, 5.29) return to the rotation. David is 3-0 with a 2.06 ERA over his last seven outings (one of those in relief). I vibe with this team’s decision making so much of the time. But I am never, ever looking to replace a guy on that kind of a roll. That was a too cute move.
The Mariners will start 22-year-old lefty Kade Anderson in his major league debut. He is 10-1 with a 1.05 ERA over 18 starts for their Double-A affiliate. He has 135 strikeouts in 93.1 innings of work and an opponent batting average of .147. Just last year he was the Most Outstanding Player at the 2025 College World Series as his LSU Tigers won it all. He was then the third overall pick in the draft. For what it’s worth, the 2026 Cubs are not a Double-A lineup. Still, this looks like a tricky matchup against a guy you haven’t seen work with the big league team. The Cubs are 24-13 when facing a lefty starter.
