Last week, I wrote a piece outlining why I believed the highest likelihood of happening is for the Buffalo Bills to select a defensive front-seven player with their first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. I outlined why this seems so and pointed to history with the assumption that the exhibited behaviors are a Brandon Beane (a carryover from the previous regime, now with a fancy new “President of Football Operations” title) phenomenon rather than one assigned to Sean McDermott.
But even if I believe there’s
a 70% chance the Bills go with an edge rusher, an interior defensive lineman, or a linebacker with their first pick (at 26 overall, higher, or lower), that still leaves a robust 30% chance of them doing something else entirely. And what else exactly would they do?
Safety, wide receiver, and interior offensive line are team needs where Buffalo entered the offseason at a deficit. However, the additions of C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Geno Stone, DJ Moore, Austin Corbett, and Lloyd Cushenberry alongside the re-signings of Damar Hamlin and Connor McGovern have turned the urgency down on those positions in many fans’ minds.
The difference between this year and the free agencies of years past is that outside of the contract given to Connor McGovern, none of the deals made by the Bills (including the Moore trade) feel like they’re crossed out the need in ink. When you think of Buffalo’s safety position right now, do you think “no more worries, we’re good there for the foreseeable future”? I don’t.
In fact, I don’t feel that way out left guard or wide receiver either. Obviously Moore and Corbett have been good starters in the NFL, but Corbett brings injury concerns to a one-year contract. Moore simultaneously gives Buffalo the best receiver they’ve had since former WR1 Stefon Diggs was shipped out of town — and also a feeling of not being enough to address a position that has been woefully lacking in both consistent separation and verticality.
I still stand by my statement that if I were a betting man (five cents at a time in my betting app doesn’t count), I’d wager the first pick of the Bills’ 2026 draft class will be spent on a front-seven defensive player. That said, we should still be prepared for a situation where a safety, wide receiver, or interior offensive lineman is the pick because the player is simply too good to pass up.
What if Jordan Tyson out of Arizona State is there at 26 overall, having fallen due to concerns about the wide receiver’s injuries? A player with Tyson’s profile isn’t typically available at the end of the first round, and the Bills may find the upside too significant not to swing for a home run.
KC Concepcion, like Tyson, is a wide receiver who probably won’t be there at 26. Still, would Buffalo regard shirking a “greater need” for a “lesser need” by taking the speedy and routecraftian (yes that’s a word; I deemed it so) wideout from Texas A&M as a problem?
Safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren out of Toledo may be the last remaining first-round grade of the Bills’ board in a draft class that many believe doesn’t have that a wealth of players worthy of first-round selections. Does Buffalo feel similarly about offensive guard Chase Bisontis, a former teammate of KC Conception?
I know what the Bills’ history said they would probably do; I wrote about it last week. But there are players out there who will likely be a full tier above the best defensive lineman, edge rusher, or linebacker on the board when pick 26 overall comes around late in the evening of April 23. The Bills aren’t in a position to be turning down great players just because they don’t play the positions of greatest need, so we should keep an eye out for anything to happen.
…and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!
