The Minnesota Golden Gophers will try and keep their NCAA Tournament run going against a familiar foe on Friday night in Sacramento, California. The #4 seeded Gophers will face off against the #1 seeded UCLA Bruins who they lost two back in January at Williams Arena. But much can change in over tow months of a basketball season and the Gophers appear up to the challenge to attempt to pull off the upset.
Minnesota and UCLA met on January 14th at The Barn with the Bruins picking up a 76-58 victory.
One major caveat about that game s that the Gophers were missing Tori McKinney who did not play with concussion symptoms. As the rest of the Gopher schedule as shown, McKinney is critical to the Gopher lineup and can make a massive difference on both ends of the court. Will her presence alone be enough to get the Gophers over the hump? That’s not likely but her spot in the lineup helps the Gophers do a lot more little things which will all need to happen to pick up a massive upset and the biggest win in program history since 2004.
UCLA as a tea is just so talented. First and foremost the Bruins have one of the best players in the nation in center Lauren Betts. The 6’7 center averages over 17 point per game and is also one of the best rebounders in the nation. Minnesota did a fairly good job at containing her in their matchup in January getting her in early foul trouble but she still ended with a 17 point 10 rebound double-double. Sophie Hart will be tasked with watching her for most of the game and she said in Thursday’s press conference that she looks forward to the challenge. “She’s a phenomenal player. I mean, great scorer, great offensive rebounder who can run the floor phenomenally as well. So I’ve got my hands full, definitely. But I think it’s more fun because you get to be a little bit more physical. ”
But the Bruins are much more than just Betts. Senior guard Kiki Rice had one of her best games of the season against the Gophers scoring 25 points shooting 8-9 from the field and 3-3 from beyond the arc. Rice averages 15 points, six rebounds and 4.5 assists a game, so while this was above her averages, she’s still an incredibly talented player. This is where having McKinney back in the lineup helps the Gophers as there is one more lock down perimeter defender who can help mark the Bruins scorers.
The Bruins have two other scorers averaging in double figure and two more just under ten points per game. Everyone on this team is an offensive threat. Senior guard Gabriela Jaquez averages 13.6 points per game and shoots 40% from beyond the arc. Duluth native Gianna Kneepkens averages 13.2 points a game and is deadly from beyond the arc where she shoots 43.7%. In fact the entire roster can bomb from three. UCLA ranked 6th in the NCAA from 3-point range shooting 37.5% this season. The Bruins push with size off the bench as well with 6th woman Angela Dugalic running 6’4 and averaging 8.8 points per game. UCLA also can bring in 6’4 Sienna Betts and 6’3 Lena Bilic if their other bigs get into foul trouble. Obviously with that size comes great rebounding ability. UCLA is second in the nation in rebounding margin at+15.3 , and rank 7th overall in rebounding averaging 42.7 per game. To paraphrase former ESPN SportsCenter anchor Dan Patrick, “You can’t stop them, you can only help to contain them.”
But that’s what the Gophers are good at. Minnesota ranked 33rd in the nation allowing just 58.1 points per game. They play tough defense. They have long perimeter players who can defend the arc, but also can help in the rebounding game. Hart and Finau Tonga will need to try and contain the Bruin post players as much as possible and let the Gopher wings make plays around the basket and gather rebounds. As Dawn Plitzuweit stated in the Thursday press conference, “We are who we are and understand what our identity is and we have to play and that’s with great toughness and resiliency, togetherness. And we have to have a find-a-way mentality, and that’s who we are. So we’re really not changing who we are at this point in time.”
If the Gophers are to pull off the upset, they need to make massive improvements in two specific areas from the January meeting between the teams. In that game The Gophers were out-rebounded 34-22 and were just -17 from beyond the arc. Those numbers MUST improve for the Gophers to win. UCLA is great at rebounding and will have an advantage, but a +12 margin is virtually impossible to overcome. Especially when second chance opportunities off of offensive rebounds are such a large part of Minnesota’s attack. To go along with that, Minnesota needs to hit outside shots. The Bruins likely will ,so the Gophers at bare minimum need to keep pace if not outscore them from beyond the arc. Mara Braun, Amaya Battle and most importantly Grace Grocholski MUST be on from three. If even one of them is cold, the outcome probably will not end in Minnesota’s favor. Grocholski is the glaring outlier in that group. While Battle and Braun have stepped up huge in the postseason, Grocholski has seem to have lost her shot. She did not score in the Gophers first round game against Green Bay and didn’t score against Ole Miss until the second quarter of that game and then was 2-3 from beyond the arc down the stretch. She NEEDS to hit on Friday night.
This is one of those games that Minnesota can win, but there is zero room for error. Every player on the floor has to be at the top of their game offensively and defensively. Just a few mistakes could turn the tide. The Gophers have faith in themselves. As Grocholski said on Thursday, “I think the biggest thing with our team is just togetherness. We’ve preached that all season. I think it’s been showing here in postseason play, just staying together and playing together.” Hart added, “I think we have a lot of confidence in each other in that locker room, and we’re going to go play.” So lets go play Gophers and keep this train moving for a least a few more days!
HOW TO WATCH:
NCAA SWEET SIXTEEN
#4 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs #1 UCLA Bruins
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
When: 6:30 PM Friday
TV: ESPN
Stream: WatchESPN
Radio: 96.7 FM, I Heart Radio
