NC State a 4.5-point underdog against Duke

DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 20: Andrew Pellicciotta #35 of the Duke Blue Devils trips up Hollywood Smothers #3 of the North Carolina State Wolfpack just short of the end zone during the first half of the game at Wallace Wade Stadium on September 20, 2025 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by G

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What is the story about?

NC State has had a rough time against Duke lately, and I’m not so sure that’s going to change this week. The Pack’s a 4.5-point underdog to the Blue Devils in Vegas, while SP+ has Duke by six. Duke is coming off a 47-2 win over Boston College, which is a very funny final score, if you ask me.

Duke for the most part has been quite good on the defensive side this season and has yet to allow more than 28 points in a game. That helps explain how Duke is 6-2 despite losing Darian Mensah and having to scramble

for a starting quarterback at the tail end of the portal window. The rest of the explanation is mostly just Nate Sheppard, who has been one of the best running backs in the country.

Sheppard will, barring a heroic and completely unexpected effort from NC State’s defense, get himself over the 1,000-yard mark on Saturday afternoon (he needs 28 yards). Sheppard ranks fifth among FBS running backs in rushing yards, and tops among P4 backs. If he doesn’t have a big game this week, I’ll be surprised.