After a two match home stand, Arsenal hit the road again as they travel to face Leeds United on Saturday for the 24th match day of the Premier League season.
Will the real Arsenal please stand up? As an up and down
January comes to a close, some consistency would be greatly appreciated. Arsenal have oscillated between confidently coasting through cup matches to dropping points in three consecutive PL matches, and Mikel Arteta’s once-metronomic side have become a whirlwind of unpredictability. That pesky chaos that Arteta successfully wrangled for the first half of the season looks to be creeping in as the run-in rapidly approaches, to the detriment of their once-sizeable lead at the top of the table.
Arsenal’s perfunctory midweek win over Kairat Almaty to wrap up a perfect run in the Champions League league phase only temporarily papered over the cracks from the massive gut check that was last weekend’s loss against Manchester United. The Gunners managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory when they collapsed in on themselves like a dying star after taking a first half lead. Uncharacteristic mistakes were omnipresent, United capitalized with a few excellent strikes, and Arsenal’s mentality tumbled back down a few notches.
Believe it or not, the sky isn’t falling. In reality, it’s not nearly as close as it the more irrational portions of the fanbase may make it seem. The Gunners still sit atop of the Premier League, are one match away from a Carabao Cup final, have a favorable FA Cup draw, and can enjoy a well-earned bye in the first round of the Champions League as the top team in the contest. Ask any supporter of a rival if they’d want to trade spots, and they would snap your hand off before you could finish asking.
Still, there’s work to be done, and Saturday is the best chance to wash the bad taste from last Sunday out of their mouths with a strong showing. A few poor performances don’t change that we know who this Arsenal side are, and they know who they are, too. The question still remains: can they bounce back and show their mettle to keep the gap at the top from closing further?
Here are three talking points ahead of Saturday’s match:
Know the Enemy
Leeds enter match day 24 in 16th place with 26 points from a record of 6W/8D/9L.
Leeds’ return to the Premier League began abysmally as they looked primed for another trip back to the Championship in the season’s early stages. Eight losses from their first 14 matches across all competitions had them hovering above the drop while they barely kept their heads above water.
Since the end of November, their fortunes have changed pretty dramatically for the better. Daniel Farke’s side have lost only one match from their 11 matches played since, a 4-3 loss to Newcastle three weeks ago where the Magpies scored twice in stoppage to steal all three points. Along the way, they have stolen points off of Chelsea, Manchester United, and Liverpool twice. As far as turnarounds go, that’s pretty solid.
And yet, they have still struggled to escape the lower rungs of the league on account of a slew of draws. Six draws from the previous 11 have kept them from putting a considerable distance between them and the rest of the bottom dwellers, with 6 points separating them from the drop zone. January has seen them draw three of their six matches so far, and with Nottingham Forest only one point behind them, they know they can’t afford to continue their points-splitting ways.
Elland Road has been favorable for them, with 5 of their 6 league wins coming at home. They have only lost there twice, with the last loss all the way back in November against Aston Villa. The Gunners have been the best away side in the league, but they will have to put in a much better showing than they have in their recent matches if they want to maintain their gap at the top of the table and deliver a third home loss to the hosts. Leeds have shown numerous times this season that they are capable of riding the wave of the home support to favorable results, which the Gunners have been on the wrong end of a few times this season.
A big part of their improved success is the return to form of Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The former Everton striker has found the back of the net 9 times for Leeds this season, which is good for 4th best in the league. USMNT player Brendan Aaronson has had a fine season ahead of the World Cup with 4 goals, while Lukas Nmecha has chipped in 5.
Leeds are a decent side that should be much higher in the table, with Opta calculating that they should realistically be in 9th. Matches aren’t played on paper, but what that does tell us is that they are more than capable of being a thorn in the Gunners’ side if Arsenal continue their worrying trend of failing to establish a rhythm and dictate the tempo of the game.
Injuries & Suspensions
William Saliba and Jurrien Timber were both absent from Wednesday’s match with reported knocks, though it is just as likely they were given the night off to spare their legs. Barring an update from Arteta, there don’t appear to be any new injuries, meaning the squad is back to full strength.
Predicted Lineup
Attack: Trossard, Gyökeres, Saka
The prodigal son returned on Wednesday. Kai Havertz’ 45 minute MOTM goal-and-assist performance against Kairat was the definition of the old “Like a New Signing” meme. He has endured a hellacious 12 months of injuries and setbacks and finally, touch all of the wood, is back. Is he the tonic the attack needs to click again? Perhaps. However, seeing as how Wednesday were his first minutes since the Carabao Cup match against Chelsea, I don’t think he’s quite ready for a league start just yet. Perhaps a late cameo to help see out a win is in order? Viktor Gyökeres found the score sheet against Kairat and will look to repeat his performance from the home match against Leeds, where he bagged a brace. Leandro Trossard and Bukayo Saka were left on the bench and come to Elland Road fresh.
Midfield: Rice, Zubimendi, Eze
The midfield has looked well off the mark in recent outings. Is it fatigue, knocks, or something else entirely? Martin Ødegaard in particular has been below his standard, and when he isn’t at his best, his conservative play and wayward passes are a net negative. After three poor performances, the gaffer may need to sit him to get his head right. Eberechi Eze was spry on Wednesday and can be a difference maker when confident. Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi were left out against Kairat with Rice missing through yellow card accumulation. Against a Leeds side that likes to attack through the middle, can they find top gear?
Defense: Calafiori, Gabriel, Saliba, Timber
I’m gambling a bit on Riccardo Calafiori here. He was a step slow and gave up a silly penalty in his return to action on Wednesday after several weeks out. However, his unique brand of chaos unlocks the attack in ways that no other left back in the side can. If he can give Arsenal 45 minutes, he could be a sorely-needed spark. The rest of the defense returns after a night off, and hopefully that respite helped them get over whatever has been affecting them lately, with the Gunners conceding 5 goals from the last 5 shots on target they have faced.
Keeper: Raya
Arsenal’s starting keeper returns after Kepa spelled him midweek. Sunday was the first match in over two years that the ball got past him thrice in a match. Like the defense, he will want to put that behind him with a solid outing on the road.
There’s a lot of noise surrounding Arsenal at the moment. Some of it is deserved, but a whole lot of it is forced narrative fodder by a few folks within and and plenty from outside the fanbase that see an Arsenal stumble as smoke for the inevitable fire of yet another fumbling of the league. They are hungry to see them capitulate another lead so they can wallow in further Arsenal failure. There’s no doubt the players are acutely aware of it, and it will be up to them and them alone to stop it. The best way to do that is getting back to what they have done all season. Just win, baby. Just win.
WHO: Arsenal at Leeds United
WHAT: Premier League match day 24
WHEN: Saturday, January 31st, 10:00am EST/7:00am PST/3:00pm GMT
WHERE: Elland Road, Leeds
HOW TO WATCH: Broadcast live on the USA Network
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