Sign No. 10,000 that it’s going to be a long, harsh winter for the Penguins was on display last night. After the team returned from a successful trip to California and winning two games, Pittsburgh managed all of 17 shots last night against Ottawa.
I think this was a tighter game,“ Sidney Crosby said, “a little more physical, and we have to be able to produce chances in that type of game. They just played better, you know? That’s basically what it comes down to.”
The last two sentences really get to
the heart of the matter. For all the pixels spilled about the plight of the Penguins, that concise message is all you need to know. The other team usually does play better than the Pens on a given night. It’s showing in the standings as teams get to the 20-game mark.
Carolina (2-0-0): The Hurricanes went over to Finland this week for the NHL’s Global Series and proceeded to do what they do and choke out Seattle for 4-1 and 5-1 victories abroad. Same old, same old for the defending champs out in cruise control- on any continent.
New Jersey (3-1-0): The only blemish on their record this week was, predictably, losing in Winnipeg after stepping into the mess and releasing a clunky statement about benching Connor Hellebuyck against the Jets. As long as the Devils can stay away from that drama, the rest of the season is unfolding really nicely. Two wins this week over the Capitals by a combined 12-6 score puts NJ firmly in control of being the second-best team in the division right now.
NY Rangers (2-1-0): New York took a Western trip where they lost against the best team they saw (3-1 to Edmonton) and beat the two lesser teams (3-1 vs Calgary and 5-1 vs Vancouver). The sliding public perception of Adam Fox should be tipping back in the positive direction, he’s been amazing in the first quarter of the season.
NY Islanders (2-0-1): The Islanders completed a California trip like the Penguins did recently. In NYI’s case, they lost a shootout game (whereas the Pens were able to defeat SJ in a shootout). The Islanders beat the Kings and then one-upped the Pens’ performance by beating the Ducks. Even better for them is the upcoming schedule for the rest of the month (games against: CBJ, WIN, DET, TOR, STL, WIN and PHI) are about as easy as it comes.
Philadelphia (2-0-2): It’s never going well when the team president and a rep of the owners have to fly out to Edmonton to settle down a situation with the team’s most talented player butting heads with fellow players and coaches. Matvei Michkov may or may not be looking for a trade but the Flyers team is in full turmoil now. Despite all the noise, they had a good week results-wise. Let’s see if that continues with a tough upcoming schedule (games against EDM, BUF, OTT and MON).
Pittsburgh (1-1-1): As written above, there just isn’t quite enough effective play there and the bad games are out-numbering the good one. And (Jerry Seinfeld voice) what’s the deal with the schedule? Pittsburgh plays three times in 12 days from Nov 9-20. They’ll play seven times in the 11-day stretch that starts at that point. Always weird to play two times a week, as happens next week, and then four times after that. It hasn’t been a very smooth, steady spacing of games early in the season.
Columbus (0-3-0): Bad week for the Blue Jackets, and they haven’t had their coach behind the bench for the last two games as he goes through a medical leave that we all hope works out well. There could be some hope on the horizon with an upcoming game against Chicago, who are even worse of a side and an opportunity to get a victory.
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Playoff Models
Now that the season is getting to the quarter-pole, let’s take a look at how the models are seeing the Penguins. There might not be room to even bother including these too far into the future with the way this season is going.
The Athletic: 11% chance of playoffs
Moneypuck: 2.7%
Hockey-Reference: 14.1%
The Hockey Viz model might be the most forgiving/believing in the Pens that I’ve seen out there. It has Pittsburgh still under the playoff cut line but on track for a 89-point projection this season and fourth place finish.
