14. Nebraska
Predicted Starting Lineup
Kendall Blue, Senior, 12.3 ppg/4.4 rpg/2.4 apg at Saint Thomas
Blue was an efficient scorer in the Summit League last year, shooting 51% from the field and 42% from three. He has some secondary creation
ability, but isn’t really a natural point guard.
Connor Essegian, Senior, 10.7 ppg/2.8 rpg/1.1 apg
Essegian got back to his promising freshman year numbers at Wisconsin, after getting relegated to the bench his sophomore year. Lacking size and athleticism, defense is what is holding him back from being a more effective player, but he can shoot the cover off the ball, shooting 38% from three last year on a fairly high degree of difficulty diet.
Pryce Sandfort, Junior, 8.8 ppg/2.9 rpg/1.3 apg at Iowa
The younger Sandfort brother was looking for another home where defense is optional after Fran was let go at Iowa and wound up in Nebraska. Illinois was kicking the tires on Pryce this offseason, but he has an opportunity for a bigger role at Nebraska. Another good shooter at 40% from three, I would expect him to scale up into a double-digit scorer this year without his big brother around.
Berke Buyuktuncel, Junior, 6.0 ppg/5.5 rpg/1.4 apg
Big Berke returns for his second year at Nebraska after leaving Turkey to start his college career at UCLA. He has some Giorgi B to his game without the endless charisma. Will need to improve on the 28% from three to open the floor up.
Rienk Mast, Senior, 12.3 ppg/7.5 rpg/3.0 apg in 2023-24
After missing last year with a torn ACL, the Dunking Dutchman is back for his 6th year of college. While he won’t bring the ball up the court necessarily, he will serve as Nebraska’s de facto point guard, running the offense from either the high or low post. If he is the same player he was before the surgery, he will be Nebraska’s best player.
Why Illinois Will Beat Them
Limited athleticism and defensive upside. With castoffs from Wisconsin and Iowa, what can you expect? They will try hard for Hoiberg but can be exploited by a well-run offense with multiple scoring options. Also, a lack of proven ballhandlers could get pressured into turnovers or poor offensive decisions.
Why They Beat Illinois
They are a team that can go nuclear from three any given night, especially when their home court is rocking (Illinois plays home and away with the Huskers). Hoiberg is a smart offensive mind, and can find ways to work around their creation issues.
X-Factor
The up transfers not being out of their depth in the Big Ten. Kendall Blue was just a secondary scorer in the Summit League but given Nebraska’s roster they will need him to come pretty close to replicating those numbers to take some of the offensive load off of Mast. Ugnius Jarusevicius is another low major transfer, coming from Central Michigan in the MAC. He is a stretch big who put up 17 points a game in the MAC, but the size and athleticism in the Big Ten makes it hard for post transfers from smaller schools. If either he or Buyuktuncel can hack it in the Big Ten, it creates a nice 4-5 rotation that can run some good high-low sets and hold up against some of the bigger teams in the Big Ten.
Bottom Line
The defensive shortcomings limit their ceiling to middle of the pack in the Big Ten, but their offense will cause teams problems. If things break right, they could get into the tournament as a lower seed, but a lot is riding on Rienk Mast’s surgically repaired knee, it could all fall apart without him, even more so than last year with Brice Williams also gone.
13. Maryland
Predicted Starting Lineup
Myles Rice, Junior, 10.1 ppg/2.8 rpg/2.8 apg at Indiana
Rice will look to get his promising career back on track after losing his way in the swamp of Mike Woodson’s Hoosier team last year. At his best, he’s an aggressive downhill driver who can finish over size. At his worst last year, he was timid and indecisive.
Isaiah Watts, Junior, 11.0 ppg/3.7 rpg/2.1 apg/1.7 spg at Washington State
Watts reunites with his Washington State backcourt mate Myles Rice on the other side of the country. Watts is a long, springy, six-foot-three wing who attacks the basket hard but was an inefficient offensive weapon last year.
Darius Adams, Freshman, #27 Nationally, Combo Guard
Adams is a little like Will Riley in that he has a deep scoring bag but has concerns about his body. I have no idea if Maryland has a strength coach like Illinois does in Adam Fletcher working to get him ready as quick as possible. Adams is two inches shorter than Riley, so might have a more difficult adjustment trying to get shots up over big wings. He or Watts might come off the bench if Maryland wants to play bigger, with Washington (below) and Virginia transfer Elijah Saunders at the three and four.
Solomon Washington, Senior, 4.7 ppg/5.1 rpg/0.8 apg/1.2 bpg at Texas A&M
Washington is a little short for a power forward at 6-foot-7, but what he lacks in height he makes up for with athleticism. He doesn’t provide a ton offensively outside of putback dunks but on the other end he is an absolute dawg, being able to guard smaller and bigger players and be a menace on the glass.
Pharrel Payne, Senior, 10.4 ppg/5.1 rpg/0.4 apg/1.1 bpg at Texas A&M
The ex-Minnesota recruit comes back to the Big Ten, joining Washington as the frontcourt tandem following Coach Buzz Williams to Maryland. He is a very physical center who will be one of the better defensive centers in the league this year. While he does have some post-up game, Payne mostly does his work as a rebounder and roll man.
Why Illinois Beat Them
Buzz Williams gameplan last year for Texas A&M was to play tough, physical defense, make the third little pig’s house out of bricks, and then clean up the offensive glass. With Payne and Washington following Buzz to Maryland and a stable of guards who aren’t afraid to shoot and miss a bunch of shots, it looks like we will see the same recipe. Strong rebounding is a staple of a Brad Underwood team, so keeping possessions more even than a typical Buzz game will lead to a win for the more offensively talented orange and blue.
Why They Beat Illinois
Their defense will be physical and tough, and those kinds of teams can always throw a talented team off their game if they don’t come prepared. Maryland has been a problem for Illinois, and if the Terps can turn it into a rock fight they will like their chances.
X-Factor
Which version of Myles Rice they are getting will define their season. Before last season, Myles Rice was considering the NBA Draft. Playing for Woodson has dropped him completely off the radar. If he can be effective as Maryland’s go-to guy when they need a bucket, Maryland’s ceiling is much higher than this ranking. I wouldn’t rule it out, as Buzz Williams has effectively developed and coached many aggressive guards, while Mike Woodson mostly looked like he can’t remember where he put his keys on the sideline.
Bottom Line
The Terrapins have a much wider range of outcomes than most teams in the conference, as their guard stable of Rice, Watts, Adams and Kansas transfer David Coit all have the capability of popping or flopping. They will be tough to play against regardless, but I am choosing to err on the side of caution with their projection. Whether it happens this year or the next, I do expect Buzz to get them humming as a top half Big Ten team.
12. Indiana
Predicted Starting Lineup
Tayton Conerway, Senior, 14.2 ppg/4.6 rpg/4.8 apg/2.9 spg at Troy
Conerway was the straw that stirred the drink for 14-seed Troy last year. A lightning quick guard, he can be a pest of an on-ball defender as well as a gambling thief and offensively makes his money getting into the lane and making good decisions from there. His shooting leaves something to be desired though, so lane could get clogged if defenders go under ball screens.
Lamar Wilkerson, Senior, 20.5 ppg/4.0 rpg/2.1 apg at Sam Houston State
Wilkerson might have been the best shooter in the portal this offseason, averaging 44.5% from three on nearly eight attempts per game. He has a quick release, NBA range, and decent size at 6-foot-5. He also can attack a close out with sidestep threes, midrange jumpers, and attacking the basket, so the tool set looks like someone whose offensive game translates to the high major level.
Tucker DeVries, Senior, 14.9 ppg/4.9 rpg/2.8 apg/1.8 spg at West Virginia
The coach’s son was a dominant mid-major player at Drake before following pops to West Virginia. He was putting up solid numbers early in the season but was only able to play eight games as shoulder issues derailed his season. The shoulder problems have led to multiple surgeries, and the Hoosiers are hoping he can stay healthy and that his shooting is unaffected.
Sam Alexis, Senior, 4.7 ppg/3.5 rpg/0.4 apg at Florida
Alexis was a highly touted transfer a year ago, after displaying strong rebounding and defensive skills at Chatanooga, averaging 2.1 blocks per game and 9.1 rebounds per game. He went to the wrong team to display those abilities though (right team to win a National Championship though), as Florida had the deepest front court in the country and he only played 12 minutes a game. Alexis is also likely the primary backup center so he might come off the bench, and Freshman Trent Sisley, North Florida transfer Josh Harris, or Elon transfer Nick Dorn are candidates for this spot.
Reed Bailey, Senior, 18.8 ppg/6.1 rpg/3.8 apg at Davidson
Bailey is a skilled offensive center, with the ability to post up, distribute from the high post, attack off the dribble, and shoot a little bit from three. Like most of these Indiana players, the question is how well his efficiency can hold up against stronger competition, and can he hold his own on the other end as he isn’t the quickest, strongest or tallest big man on the floor most Big Ten nights.
Why Illinois Beat Them
This one goes Illinois’ way because the orange and blue hang 100 on them. Conerway and Enright off the bench can be decent defenders, and Alexis was good at a mid-major, but overall, this team lacks depth in the front court and athleticism in the back court to slow down a high powered offense.
Why They Beat Illinois
Darian DeVries can coach a pretty offense. The Hoosiers have a deep stable of shooters around Conerway, and can hurt teams in a lot of different ways. Catch them when a few of the shooters are hot, and they become a problem.
X-Factor
The bigs. We are mainly talking about Alexis and Bailey here, as the only other player over 6-foot-9 on their roster is Andrej Acimovic, a freshman from either Bosnia or Herzegovina who looks very raw still. Not only do Alexis and Bailey both need to stay healthy and out of foul trouble, but they also need to be able to hold up against higher competition than they have previously shown success against. It is a tall order in a Big Ten with loads of interior talent.
Bottom Line
This team has quickly done a 180 from Mike Woodson’s modus operandi. Woodson compiled uber talented rosters that did not fit at all and had them play with no direction. Darian DeVries has a team with a clear offensive identity and the ability to mold it, but questions on the talent level of the team. He is basically banking on a mid/low major all-star team being able to hang in the Big Ten. The one player with experience starting for a power conference team is Tucker DeVries, and that only lasted eight games. While I do think Tucker and Wilkerson will be an awesome wing combo, just too many question marks to put this team much higher.
11. USC
Predicted Starting Lineup
Jordan Marsh, Junior, 18.8 ppg/4.2 rpg/3.7 apg/2.0 spg at UNC-Asheville
Marsh is listed at just 5-foot-11 and 146! pounds, which is the lightest starting point guard I have seen in the Big Ten in the past couple years. He compensates for his lilliputian stature with lightning quickness and a variety of floaters and runners. He was a very high usage player in the Big South, and while I do expect him to start, he will probably adjust to being a secondary scorer and will need to shoot better than the 30% from three he accomplished last year.
Rodney Rice, Junior, 13.8 ppg/2.2 rpg/2.1 apg at Maryland
Illinois fans will remember Rice as the guy who shot 7-of-9 from three against Illinois to lead to a blow out in College Park last year. On the year he was a 37% long range shooter on high volume. Rice will be stepping into a bigger role this year for USC and tasked with a little more creation than he had to do with Derik Queen and JaKobi Gillespie last year.
Chad Baker-Mazara, 6th Year Senior, 12.3 ppg/3.0 rpg/2.7 apg/1.2 spg at Auburn
Baker-Mazara was a key role player in strong Auburn teams the last two years who is now getting paid like one of the superstars in the sport. Known for being a bit mercurial in picking up foolish flagrant fouls, with 5-star recruit Alijah Arenas likely out for the year with a torn meniscus, the scoring burden will fall on Baker-Mazara along with Rice.
Terrance Williams, 6th Year Senior, 10.6 ppg/4.6 rpg/0.9 apg in 7 games
Redshirting after suffering a wrist injury early in the season last year, Terrance Williams joins Chad Baker-Mazara as the eldest of elder statesmen in college basketball. If Williams’ wrist is completely healed, he had turned into a very good shooter his last of four years at Michigan and has a stout build at 6-foot-7 to match up with taller power forwards. He is the lone returner as no one turns over a roster like the Muss Bus.
Jacob Cofie, Sophomore, 7.2 ppg/4.6 rpg/1.0 apg at Virginia
Cofie is an athletic big with NBA tools that need a bit more refining. Defensively he can be a menace if he figures out his positioning and discipline, and even as a freshman almost averaged a steal and a block per game. Offensively, he did most of his damage near the basket, but he flashed enough dribbling, passing and shooting to dream about the upside.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Because when you are a mad scientist like Eric Musselman, sometimes the ingredients blow up in your face. Relying on either Rice or Baker-Mazara as the prime scorer seems ambitious, and Marsh could have a hard time adjusting to the Big Ten as a point guard. There just doesn’t seem to be a natural fit of the players together this year.
Why They Beat Illinois
They get Illinois at home this year and Rodney Rice goes nuclear again.
X-Factor
Jacob Cofie has the highest variance from floor to ceiling, and the options behind him at center aren’t great. If he can be a guy that plays himself into the NBA draft conversation, it gives USC the necessary resistance inside and more balance offensively. Bonus X-Factor is Alijah Arenas, who hasn’t officially been ruled out for the season. Agent Zero/No Chill Gil/Hibachi/Gilbert Arenas’ son was the No. 7 overall recruit this offseason and expected to be a potential lottery pick but had the summer from hell with a scary car accident, a medically induced coma, and then a torn meniscus. The timetable for a return is sometime between early February and missing the whole season. Even if he is healthy in time, Arenas might just shut it down and prep for the NBA, but if he is able to come back, he could turn into the high usage scorer the team is missing down the stretch.
Bottom Line
This team is an enigma. I could see them finishing five spots higher or lower than this. The advanced metrics like them a lot more than I do, but I just don’t see the new Musselman mercenaries fitting well together, and losing a five-star like Arenas is hard to recover from.
10. Washington
Predicted Starting Lineup
Quimari Peterson, Senior, 19.5 ppg/4.5 rpg/3.7 apg/2.0 spg at ETSU
Stereotypical ball dominant low major scoring guard transferring up. He has at least passable size at 6-foot-1. His game is somewhat similar to Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who last year transferred up from Belmont to Maryland and had a strong year for a good team.
Wesley Yates, Sophomore, 14.1 ppg/2.9 rpg/1.8 apg/1.2 spg at USC
Yates started out as a Washington player for Mike Hopkins but redshirted his freshman year with a foot injury. After the coaching change, he decided to transfer to USC, and has now found his way back to Washington. As a redshirt freshman last year, Yates didn’t do much else but score, but he did that in impressive fashion, shooting 48% from the field and 44% from three. With some natural growth, Yates is the favorite to be Washington’s lead scorer, surpassing his USC transfer buddy Desmond Claude.
Desmond Claude, Senior, 15.8 ppg/3.5 rpg/4.2 apg at USC
Danny Sprinkle stole Eric Musselman’s lunch money this offseason, taking the best two USC players north. Claude is a big guard who likes to use his size to get to mid post spots and go to work, scoring or assisting. Three-point shooting is a hole in his game at 31% last year on low volume.
Jacob Ognacevic, Senior, 20.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg/ 1.4 apg at Lipscomb
Like Quimari at the point, Ognacevic is a stereotypical stretch four up transfer. While he lacks athleticism, he has crafty post footwork and can shoot the cover off the ball from deep (40% last year). Ognacevic will likely get picked on some defensively, but he fits in nicely around the guard trio.
Franck Kepnang, Senior, 6.9 ppg/5.1 rpg/0.0 apg/1.9 bpg
Kepnang has only played 32 games total over the past three years at Washington due to injuries, but if he can stay healthy, he provides a solid rim protector and lob threat. If he can’t stay healthy, expect Rutgers transfer and Peoria native Lathan Sommerville to step into the center spot. He is not as imposing defensively, but Sommerville has a nice midrange touch offensively.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Besides Kepnang, who is an injury concern, Washington is pretty weak defensively. The Ivisic bros should be able to pull Franck the Tanck away from the basket and open up the layup lines. Washington can score, but keeping up in Champaign this year will be a tough ask.
Why They Beat Illinois
Washington is sneakily super deep. If Sprinkle can push the right buttons game to game based on matchups and hot hands, they can be a challenge. Beyond the starters and Lathan Sommerville that I mentioned above, they have a top-50 recruit in JJ Mandaquit as an old school point guard, a top-50 recruit from last year who flashed potential in Zoom Diallo, Bryson Tucker was a top-25 recruit for Indiana last year, and Hannes Steinbach is a revelation as an international recruit at the four (more on him below). Also, Dez Claude eviscerated Illinois last year.
X-Factor
Hannes Steinbach looks like a combination of all your favorite Illini freshmen from last year. Like Kasparas Jakucionas, he burst onto the scene with an eye-opening FIBA U19 tournament (17.4 ppg, 13.0 rpg) this summer after being somewhat untouted as a prospect and is now showing up in the first round of draft boards for next year. Like Will Riley, he might come off the bench early in the year for a deep team but expect his role to grow as the season progresses. And like Morez Johnson, he is an absolute beast on the boards, with a relentless motor and a preternatural sense for angles. He has a more polished offensive game than Morez off the dribble and passing though (shooting as well, although I wouldn’t call it a strength yet), and if his stock keeps rising Washington’s ceiling goes up with it.
Bottom Line
I really want to put this time higher. I think Sprinkle did an incredible job mixing a couple useful returnees with proven high major transfers, dominant low major players with transferrable skills, and high-level high school and international prospects. Besides maybe needing a defensive stopper on the perimeter, the pieces really seem to fit. I just can’t bring myself to put them any higher though, as the top half of the Big Ten is stacked, and Washington’s 4-16 first season in the Big Ten last year gives me pause about ranking them any higher. When they finish sixth I am going to be kicking myself for being a coward.
