Yesterday, I went over the details of the draft and the Jays’ potential strategy. Today, a quick review of the farm, the shape of the draft class, and some names.
The Farm
Baseball America refreshed their farm system rankings the day before yesterday, in anticipation of the draft. They currently have the Jays 18th. Fangraphs has recently rolled out a new ranking methodology that has them 20th, although that still includes Trey Yesavage as a prospect. They’d probably drop into the mid-20s if he came off but
other developments (e.g. Jojo Parker moving into the top 100, other systems graduations) were accounted for. MLB.com had them 15th before the season, but again that includes Yesavage.
Regardless of exactly where they go, the picture is of an org that’s in the below average mix but a clear cut above the truly bad systems like San Diego, Houston or Philadelphia. That’s actually not bad considering years of later picks (Parker last year was their only pick higher than 19th in five seasons), buying at the deadline and taking qualifying offer free agent penalties. Arjun Nimmala and Parker are a quality 1-2 on the position side, and the emergence of Johnny King, Nolan Perry, and Gage Stanifer among others point to the investment in the Dunedin pitching lab bearing fruit. They don’t have a ton of depth (and this draft won’t help), and while they have maybe five players with top 100 cases they don’t have anyone who definitely fits in the top 50.
Their impact prospects are mostly a year or two away, with the guys having an impact in 2026 or poised to do so being more role players like Sean Keys and Yohendrick Pinango, with the possible exception of Jake Bloss.
The Draft Class
This year’s class is considered unusually deep. There’s a clear big 3, comprising UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson, and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. Below that, there’s another fairly tight tier of 6-7 names (Mississippi high school outfielder Eric Booth jr., Florida prep SS Jacob Lombard, Florida prep lefty Gio Rojas, LSU outfielder Derek Curiel, Kentucky SS Tyler Bell, Georgia Tech OF Drew Burress, and UC Santa Barbara righty Jackson Flora, roughly) who will all probably go in the 4-12ish range. Then it’s a big, unusually flat group from the early teens to the early 40s that could see a lot of shuffling. That is, of course, good news for the Jays. It’s more likely than usual that someone who’d be a clear first round talent most years will be on the board at 39.
Names In the Range
Normally, I’d look at mock drafts and pick some players the Jays have been tied to. This year, that’s not really worth doing. At 39, in a class with this overall shape, we have no idea which way they’ll go and the few mocks that get that far are functionally throwing darts. Instead of getting anchored to any one guy here, use this list to get a flavour of the types of players likely to go in the 25-50 range.
High School Bats
- Will Brick: plus defensive catcher with a great arm, who could have a league average hit/power combo.
- Landon Thome: Jim’s son is a shortstop now, but probably plays third eventually. He has 25 home run power potential but questions about his ability to catch up to good fastballs up and inside.
- Taj Marchand: a funky swing and over aggressive approach leads to questions about his hit tool against pro competition, but he’s posted very good contact rates so far and has above average power potential. Will slide to third but could be a plus defender there with soft hands and a strong arm.
- Aiden Ruiz: undersized but an exceptional athlete, Ruiz is the best defensive shortstop in the class and a potential plus pure hitter. His size will cap his power well below average, but this spring he’s added muscle and has enough sneaky pop to punish mistakes. If he was Dominican he’d certainly already be a Blue Jay
- Trevor Condon: A plus centre fielder with some feel for contact but questions about power production with wood bats.
- Bo Lowrance: 6’5”, 200lbs with present plus power and room to keep growing. Unusually for a teen of his size, there are no major contact concerns and he projects as an average hitter. He’s slow, as you’d expect, but his feet and hands are quick and his solid arm gives him a good shot to stick at third base.
- Cole Prosek: well rounded lefty hitter with potential for above average contact and power, he’s a shortstop now but probably won’t stick, most likely moving to third. Committed to Ole Miss. He’s basically Great Value brand Jojo Parker, rounding down a little on every tool (more on the plate approach), although he’s also shown some aptitude to catch.
- James Clark: lefty shortstop with top tier baseball IQ and plus speed. Should hit for average and OBP but maybe not power, and might not have the range for short long term.
High School Arms
- Kaden Waechter: above average command of four above average pitches. Might not have ace upside but potential to be a quality #2/3 with better odds than most high schoolers of sticking in the rotation.
- Sean Duncan: the top Canadian in this draft had Tommy John surgery in May, but was tracking for the first round before that. He sits 93-95 with a smooth delivery and potential for above average command, with both a slider and change up that could be above average. If he falls far due to his injury he may opt to honour his commitment to Vanderbilt and shoot for top 20 money in three years.
- Coleman Borthwick: up to 98 with a slider that flashes promise and a starter’s frame, but conditioning, consistency and a third pitch will need to be the focus if he’s to stick in the rotation.
- Blake Bryant: a standout athlete with above average feel to locate three above average pitches in his fastball, curve and slider and a progressing change up. Nothing is plus yet, but at 6’5” and 180lbs he has room to add a little more power.
- Jensen Hirschkorn: Stuff was down a little this spring, but scouts seem to write that off as the byproduct of a grueling high end basketball season (the 6’7” standout athlete is a two sport prospect). When he’s right, it’s a fastball that sits 93 and touches 96 with loads of room to add velocity and a slider that flashes plus, with a change up that could be above average with development and potentially solid command. Probably the longest path to go but highest upside in the group.
College Bats
- Logan Hughes, Texas Tech: plus all around bat, with contact, approach and some power, but is limited to left field or first base defensively.
- Gaving Grahovac, Texas A&M: Flirted with the NCAA strikeout record in 2024, but rebuilt his swing while recovering from a torn labrum in 2025 and now makes adequate contact to go with easy plus raw power. Has played some third but is a pro first baseman.
- Jake Brown, LSU: college right fielder who has the speed and instincts to try centre as a pro, above average power and decent contact. Looks like a solid all around everyday player.
- Jarren Advincula, Georgia Tech: elite contact hitter (hit .484 in the ACC this year). Like many guys of that type, will need to learn an approach when he finally sees pitchers with stuff he can’t just hit. Little power and limited to second base, but should stick there easily.
- Daniel Jackson, Georgia: a standout athlete, but some concern that he doesn’t have the hands to stick at catcher. Plus power and showed improvements in his contact rate this year but hit tool is the big risk in his profile.
- Jack Natili, Cincinnati: should stick at a catcher and boasts a plus arm. It’s power over hit, but he’s done a solid job managing his strikeouts in college.
- Carson Tinney, Texas: Yet another catcher with a power bat. Should be average behind the dish with work, and it might be 70 raw juice, but he struck out more than you’d like in college and fell completely flat with wood bats in the Cape Cod League, so there’s risk to go with upside.
- Cade Sorrell, Texas A&M: Has the plus speed and arm to be a solid centre fielder or great in right, with above average power but an approach that needs a lot of refinement.
College Arms
- Jack Radel, Notre Dame: 6’5” workhorse pitcher whose stuff jumped up this season. Nothing is plus, but he has solidly above average command of five quality pitches. He looks like a high probability 3/4.
- Cade Townsend, Ole Miss: up to 98 with three secondaries that flash plus and decent command. It’s an easy first round skill set, but he’s undersized at 6’1” and 185lbs, missed a start with shoulder pain during the season, and wore down a little as the season went on. A lot of upside this late, but his body creates relief risk.
- Brett Renfrow, Virginia: improved as the year went on, moving into the fringes of the first round discussion. Good fastball, plus curve, and improving command. Looks the part of a mid rotation starter.
- Cole Carlon, Arizona State: Monster slider and fastball that sits 96 and touches 101, but neither of his curve or change up are currently much good. Command has progressed but there’s more work to do if he’s going to start.
- Hunter Dietz, Arkansas: Big fastball at 95, plus slider/cutter breaking ball, and a slow curve that’s a decent change of pace weapon. He has the command and frame to start, but barely pitched in ‘24 and ‘25 and some teams will be scared by the medicals.
- Logan Reddemann, UCLA: plus command of five pitches, the best of which are a 94mph fastball and an above average change up. All three breakers are quality, although none are plus yet. Didn’t pitch after April 17th with arm fatigue, which clouds what’s otherwise a clear first round profile.
- Ben Blair, Liberty: sinker-slider-command pitcher with a funky delivery and a strong track record of performance. A better change up is the only box left to check to become a dependable 3/4 starter who should rack up innings.
