Though the offense has been on a monthlong slump, I think it is fair to say that the bullpen is the clear weakness of the team. For what is largely considered a rebuild season, I actually think this is more of a positive than a negative. I am not worried about the bullpen long-term. The bullpen is a perpetual short-term concern. Who is good today may not be good tomorrow.
And they also can be found anywhere. Riley O’Brien and George Soriano are arguably the two best relievers on the team. O’Brien was
purchased because the Seattle Mariners didn’t have room on the 40 man for him. Soriano was DFA’d and claimed a few times before the Cardinals decided for him using Andre Granillo, an okay relief prospect who is already on his second team after being DFA’d himself. JoJo Romero was traded for a (very good) bench player.
And on top of that, the Cardinals are littered with pitching prospects who we want to see start, but may have to go to the bullpen, which will probably be to the bullpen’s benefit. If the Cardinals solely wanted to build a good bullpen, we may have even seen some of them already: Liam Doyle certainly, Tanner Franklin, a healthier Brandon Clarke and Cooper Hjerpe fit this too. Not all of these guys will start. So I am certainly not worried about the bullpen.
But because they have a bad bullpen, I’d expect to have some changeover by Opening Day of next season. And I wanted to see if I could guess what it might look like. And I wanted to do it before the trading deadline, because this will also function as sort of a prediction from myself on what I expect to happen some of to the relievers
Riley O’Brien
Here Opening Day 2027? Yes
For me, this would have been an interesting debate when you could truly claim you were selling high on O’Brien. I’m just not seeing this great return available. It’s not that I’m not open to trading him, I just look at his numbers and if I’m an opposing team, I don’t know why I would give up that much for him. I could be wrong, which I will put the necessary disclaimer that if a team will give you some fantastic return, sure trade him.
The other aspect of this, and really the only reason anyone is considering trading O’Brien, is that he’s 31 and had injury problems in the past. So I do get it. But to me, the return I imagine O’Brien getting back, it’s a worthwhile risk to just keep him. I would just be surprised if I feel immense regret at the loss of the prospects he’d bring back. I almost think he’d need to be paired with a catcher or something, which is something the Cardinals may do!
But by himself? Injury is the biggest risk. But if he’s pitching the exact same for the next year (and his advanced stats are pretty similar to last season’s), he will not get a worse return. Years of control for a 31-year-old reliever do not matter like they do for a 25-year-old SS. It does matter that he has multiple years of control, but I don’t think the difference between 4 years and 2 months and 3 years and 2 months is going to meaningfully change the return. I really don’t. You’ll be trading for the rest of that particular year and maybe two years in both instances. Anything beyond that, you probably aren’t counting on.
George Soriano
Here Opening Day? Yes
Not to disparage George Soriano, but he probably looks like a better pitcher than he is because of the bullpen he’s in. His numbers are okay honestly. An okay strikeout rate, an okay walk rate, a normal groundball rate. He was essentially a waiver claim at the beginning of this year. Nobody is giving you a haul for this dude. And if you take offense to what I’m saying, that you think he’s a really good pitcher, that’s even more reason not to trade him. Because it hasn’t shown up in the numbers yet. You think his numbers will improve? Why would you trade him now before he’s about to take the next step into being a high leverage reliever?
There is one argument to trade him, and that’s if you view Soriano as found money, that you think he’s essentially a fringe MLB reliever and you want to capitalize on a first half that he won’t repeat. But I don’t think many think of Soriano like that. In order to trade Soriano, I would need a team to view him as a much better pitcher than his numbers say he is, and I would be surprised if that happens.
Ryne Stanek
Here Opening Day 2027? God no
He’s been a bad reliever for like four straight years, I’m good. I don’t even know if he’s good enough to trade.
Gordon Graceffo
Here Opening Day 2027? No
Heavy, heavy disclaimer here: the year is not up, and Graceffo has recently rediscovered his strikeout stuff. So this is a July 27th, I’m looking at his situation and I’m not bringing him back. If his numbers significantly improve by the end of the year, different answer. But Graceffo is going to be out of options, and currently has a 15.5 K%, 11.7 BB%, 4.65 FIP, 5.17 xFIP, 5.03 SIERA, and 5.47 xERA. Yes, I am leaving out ERA. Literally the only stat that has him as a good reliever. He won’t have a good ERA if all the other stats stay the same, which we’ve seen a little recently.
Objectively speaking, there is no good argument to bring back Graceffo with the current stats he has. Again, he has two months to change this. He has 6 strikeouts in his last two appearances. If the strikeouts are truly back, okay we’ll see it in these next two months.
Justin Bruhl
Here Opening Day 2027? No
Similar to Graceffo, he could change things by the end of the year. We all know how he began the year, and he’s already turned his season around. Still, I picked out a few dates to see how much better of a pitcher he has been in the last two months, and I tried different dates to see if the stats changed enough, and I kind of shrug my shoulders. He still doesn’t strike people out, he just stopped walking them. I have to think the Cardinals were hoping for a better pitcher than this when they claimed him.
It was a good claim, we gave it a good shot, he’s just not a guy who I want to HAVE to carry on a roster all year. I know I keep hammering the options, but why keep a mediocre or bad reliever who you can’t send them down? Once again, I am emphasizing if the season ended today, this is where I stand. Both Bruhl and Graceffo have a chance to change minds, but their current stats are not worth keeping next year.
Luis Gastelum
Here Opening Day 2027? Yes
Good minor league pedigree, all three options remaining – possibly two by the end of the year – and if the Cardinals’ usage of him is any indication, they clearly view him as the future. I don’t actually know if he will literally be on the Opening Day roster, he will be on the 40 man however.
Matt Svanson
Here Opening Day 2027? Yes
Me including Svanson and not Graceffo or Bruhl for performance reasons will probably confuse fans who don’t know how this works. Svanson has an option and therefore he can be sent to AAA next season. The other two can’t. It’s that simple. Svanson also was straight up elite last year and the other two weren’t and because of that I may even had brought Svanson back if he had no options. With one more option remaining, it’s a no brainer.
JoJo Romero
Here Opening Day 2027? No
Sorry, he’s getting traded in a week, and I don’t think the Cardinals are going to sign him to free agent prices.
Ryan Fernandez
Here Opening Day 2027? Yes
But probably not on the actual roster. Would it surprise me if the Cardinals moved on? Absolutely not. Their actions speak loudly. In terms of how Fernandez has actually pitched this year, I don’t see why you wouldn’t bring him back. He’s pitched very well in the majors, despite limited opportunities, striking out 33% of hitters with a 2.70 ERA. His numbers in AAA are not terrible, and trust me that’s sometimes as good as you can ask for in Memphis.
All that said, he’s got two months to screw it up. Which is kind of why I want to see Fernandez in the majors. Cause I would like more than 13 innings in the MLB to base my decision. He’s pitched well enough in the majors to keep getting chances, and if you’re not a fan of Fernandez, don’t worry, if he’s as bad as you think, it’ll be reflected in the numbers after two months. And if he still looks like a capable MLB reliever after two months, okay he’s worth bringing back.
It’s just bizarre that they refused to send him down for as long as they did last year, and now he’s the literal last option they go to, and only when they’re truly desperate. And I must point out: Ryan Fernandez has one more MLB option.
Those are established 40 man relievers right now. And by my count, I have five relievers coming back, one of whom is very likely to start in Memphis (at least). I need to figure out the other four relievers on Opening Day. My hot take is that I think the Cardinals are going to keep trying Matthew Liberatore at starting, so that’s why he’s not mentioned. His numbers are extremely similar to Andre Pallante last year, who they stuck with.
Brycen Mautz
No brainer choice here. They recently moved him to the bullpen, he’ll probably get some MLB time after the deadline. He’ll definitely still be in the organization, it’s just a matter of if he’ll be in Memphis or St. Louis.
Cade Winquest
Winquest has been hit hard by the homer bug in Memphis, but otherwise looks like a future MLB reliever pretty easily. He has a 29.5 K%, 6.3 BB%, and 46.4 GB%, leading to a 3.49 xFIP. I would actually be surprised if the Cardinals don’t promote him at any point this year, because he needs to be added to the 40 man roster in November anyway. And we can be pretty sure he’d be selected in the Rule 5, because the Yankees literally just did and they only had 8 starts in AA to base their decision. A fantastic K/BB ratio in AAA surely would interest at least one team.
Tekoah Roby
No, I am not permanently moving Tekoah Roby to the bullpen. I am however recognizing that he will throw zero innings in 2026. He threw 78 innings in 2025. He threw 38 innings in 2024. He will, hopefully, be completely healthy at the start of 2027. I do not see a situation where you aren’t forced to heavily manage his innings and guess what, easy way to limit someone’s innings is to put him in the bullpen.
On top of that, he does have the issue of coming into next season with just one option. You retain that option when he spends 60 or so innings in the MLB bullpen, and then hopefully he pitches well enough that you want to move him to starter or at least try starting, and then you have the ability for him to be in Memphis when you’re not sure if he can start. Ideally, you don’t have to send him to Memphis.
But the main reason is just that if you only want him to throw 60 innings, it feels like a waste for that to be in Memphis and not St. Louis, where he can also learn how to get MLB hitters out. Again, I don’t know how the Cardinals plan to manage his workload, maybe they’ll just say “we’ll see if he can start 30 times” but looking at his innings history, I would be surprised if that were the case. If they have a low innings goal for him, and that may be a big if, MLB bullpen would be my choice.
And that’s all I got. They’re probably going to sign an MLB reliever or put in a few waiver claims or something. I’m not seeing it with Hancel Rincon, I’ll be honest. Maybe he’ll be a guy, I don’t think I use a 40 man spot on him. Might be worth calling him up this year to see how he plays at the MLB level to better inform a decision. He’ll certainly be eligible for minor league free agency, so it’s probably 40 or not in the organization. I wanted to say Sem Robberse, and if he looks good the rest of the year, he’s certainly in play, but that requires a bit more optimism than I was aiming for. Maybe it’ll be Peter Strzelecki, but I’ll certainly need MLB success this year for him to be on this list.
Interestingly, even though I have Roby on this list, it’s about a year early before the big guns might need to be moved to the bullpen. I don’t think they’ll give up on Cooper Hjerpe at starting by Opening Day next year, but maybe by the following year. So they might scrap heap the bullpen waiting to see who needs to move to the bullpen next year.
