Today is a big game for the Purdue Boilermakers. The #1 team in the country is coming into Mackey Arena. They want to take control of the Big Ten race and basically put it to bed while also possibly putting together the best Big Ten record since the league moved to 20 conference games. So, rather than wait until Wednesday or Friday I wanted to do a roundtable today. So I sent the staff and question.
Purdue finds themselves two games back in the loss column in the Big Ten standings. #1 ranked Michigan
comes into Mackey Arena today to face the Boilermakers. A win here would give Purdue their second win in Mackey over the #1 ranked team (the first being over the Magic Johnson led Michigan State Spartans). What does Purdue need to do to win this game?
Ledman:
Michigan has an offense that can put up points with ease. During a 7 game stretch earlier this season Michigan scored over 100 points 6 times. Those weren’t cupcake opponents either, that included Auburn and Gonzaga. Now sure, it also included Rutgers but still it counts. There’s no question they can fill it up. So, what can Purdue do? I think they’ve got to slow the game down. They’ve got to take care of the basketball and give Michigan fewer possessions to work with. Braden Smith will need to have possibly the best game of his career and control the offense like only he can. Also, keep Michigan off the glass. The incredible energy we’ve seen on the boards these last two games from this team, but especially Trey Kaufman-Renn, will have to continue.
Ryan:
Let’s start with the obvious: this is going to be the toughest game of the season for Purdue and it’s a good thing it comes in Mackey. Michigan has hunted the transfer portal under Dusty May (76.6% of their scoring comes from transfers) and there is talent everywhere. The bigs are the clear issue as Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr backed by Aday Mara are maybe the most intimidating front court in college basketball. Purdue will first and foremost need to stand their ground down low with Oscar Cluff, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Daniel Jacobsen (perhaps Jacobsen on Lendeborg to avoid him getting outside). If that monumental task is completed, then you need the guards to cover the outside shooters of Cadeau, McKenney, Burnett, and Cason. The last thing Purdue really needs to do on the defensive end is force turnovers. Michigan averages over 12 turnovers per game and extra possessions are extremely important in these types of contests. I would imagine Purdue needing to force (or Michigan forcing themselves) around 12-18 turnovers for the Boilermakers to have a realistic shot.
On offense, Purdue has its work cut out as well. The aforementioned bigs are good on both ends but the entire Michigan defense is long, fast, and gets in your face. We know Braden Smith can handle pressure, but it will be a huge challenge Tuesday night. If Michigan plays drop coverage, Braden simply needs to make Michigan pay. Add that to limiting turnovers as I already mentioned their importance and you get down to the root of what Purdue needs to do: take care of the ball and make your shots. If Purdue can get the ball down low to the bigs for easier shots (and maybe get the Wolverines in foul trouble), then great, but I feel that Purdue will ultimately need to make outside shots at a nice clip to keep up in this one.
The last thing Purdue needs to do comes on both offense and defense but I think the Boilermakers need to make a statement early. Throw the first punch just like the Nebraska game but the difference here is that you will get the crowd behind you. Ride the wave of momentum and let the Paint Crew blow the roof off of Mackey. Of course, Michigan is a well coached team and has shown multiple times in the last week alone that it may simply take time to awaken the giant. So then, if you’re Purdue, endure the inevitable counterpunch if you can and come out of the game 1 loss back of the Big Ten lead. It won’t be easy but it’s definitely possible. Just win.
Drew:
I’ll have a more in-depth answer in my preview, but for the TL/DR folks, Purdue needs Michigan to miss some open shots.
I know, I know, groundbreaking analysis, but Purdue is going to pack the lane, go under screens and hope for the best in terms of Wolverine perimeter shooting.
At the same time, Purdue has to hit shots…like all the shots. Fletcher can’t miss wife open 3s. Every layup and free throw is crucial. Purdue has to figure out a way to score enough points while keeping the tempo low enough to keep Michigan’s volume down (that includes defensive rebounding).
Michigan has more talent across the board. Purdue has to limit possessions and turn this into an efficiency battle.
Jed:
I’ve got a ‘Ahead of the Numbers’ piece that looks at four factors that Purdue needs to hit to beat the Wolverines. In it I mention how rebounding, tempo, and limiting Aday Mara are important but the biggest factor is probably the one thing Purdue needs to do the most: hit double digit 3’s while shooting 40% of them.
Purdue has been one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the country from a percentage standpoint but haven’t really had too many of those waterfall games where it overwhelms an opponent. Yes, at Maryland they hit 15 for a season high in that regard on only 30 attempts but it seems like Purdue is due for a Mackey shooting explosion. This would be the best time for one.
As a way to hammer this home, Purdue is 9-0 when they shoot 40% or better from behind the arc and 12-0 when they hit 10 or more (the margin of victory with double-digit threes is 21.7). When they hit both of those marks, they are an impressive 5-0 with an average scoring margin of 31.4 (26.3 when removing the two mid-major teams).
Travis:
Score more points than the Wolverines. (editor’s note: har har har.)
Seriously though, meep being aggressive on both ends. Purdue’s offense has been much better the last two games, but I think the biggest key has been the rebounding of Cluff and TKR. They were absolutely dominant on the glass against Nebraska and Iowa. That needs to keep up.
Also, we are getting a lot of open looks from three lately. You know there is going to be a game where we hit like 15 of them because good looks often translate into good shots.
