Missouri vs. Marquette
When | 1:30 p.m. CT
Where | United Center; Chicago, Ill.
TV | Peacock
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
KenPom prediction | Mizzou -1
ESPN win probability | 43.7% chance
The Starters
Mizzou (2-1)
G: Jason Crowe Jr. (FR, No. 7 recruit nationally in the 247Sports Composite)
F: Trent Pierce (SR, 10.4 PPG in 25-26)
F: Toni Bryant (FR, No. 21 recruit nationally in the 247Sports Composite)
F: Mark Mitchell (5 YR, 18.3 PPG in 25-26)
C: Bryson Tiller (SO, 7.9 PPG in 25-26 at Kansas)
Notable Sixth Man: Jamier Jones (SO, 11.9
PPG in 2025-26 at Providence)
Marquette (2-1)
G: Nigel James Jr. (SO, 16.4 PPG in 25-26)
G: Adrien Stevens (SO, 7.9 PPG in 25-26)
G/F: Damarius Owens (JR, 4.8 PPG in 25-26)
F: Royce Parham (JR, 12.5 PPG in 25-26)
C: Sananda Fru (SR, 9.0 PPG in 25-26 at Louisville)
Notable Sixth Man: Colin Porter (5 YR, 11.1 PPG in 25-26 at Liberty)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Marquette: a (mostly) old fashioned roster from the state known for the old fashioned
When looking at the traditional landscape of college basketball, Marquette does not rise to the level of a blue blood like Duke or Kentucky.
But the Golden Eagles have as strong of an argument as anyone to be included in the sport’s second tier. They have 37 NCAA Tournament appearances — more than Arizona, Illinois and Purdue — and reached the Sweet Sixteen in 17 of those trips, ranking among the top 15 in both categories.
Marquette reached the height of its success during the Al McGuire era, winning its only national title over a Dean Smith-coached North Carolina squad in 1977. Former McGuire assistants Hank Raymonds and Rick Majerus led the program to solid results through the mid-80s before the program faltered a bit heading into the new millennium.
Tom Crean’s arrival (alongside Dwyane Wade) brought a resurgence and a Final Four appearance in 2003, and (outside of the Steve Wojciechowski years) the program has been a consistent presence in March ever since.
Wade isn’t the only Chicagoan or Chicago-area native to make his impact in Milwaukee. From Bo Ellis and Doc Rivers to Jerel McNeal, many of the program’s greatest players have been from the Windy City and featured on many of its greatest teams.
Shaka Smart replaced Wojciechowski and quickly began to rack up wins, reaching the second weekend in 2024 for the first time since the Elite Eight run under Buzz Williams in 2013.
But despite reaching that success with the help of some key multi-year transfers, including Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek, Smart opted to focus solely on in-house development following the departure of his early core. The move led to the Golden Eagles missing out March Madness for the first time since his arrival, going just 12-20 last year — the fewest wins by a Marquette team since the 1990-91 season.
That setback led Smart to reevaluate his model. He brought in a trio of transfers this offseason, headlined by forward Sananda Fru from Louisville. The Golden Eagles also added a pair of all-conference performers at guard: Colin Porter from Liberty and Nolan Minessale from St. Thomas.
Those additions supplement a roster returning five of the seven key season-long members of its rotation, including the reigning Big East Freshman of the Year at lead guard in Nigel James Jr.
Regular starters Adrien Stevens and Royce Parham (who was named Preseason All-Big East) also return alongside a host of other promising sophomore and juniors. Marquette’s strong portal class, the likelihood of development jumps from several key returners and Smart’s track record as a head coach have this year’s team projected to finish fourth in the conference and make a return trip to the Big Dance.
The results have been mixed early. The Golden Eagles cruised through buy games against Mercyhurst and Detroit Mercy before an 84-70 loss Wednesday at Michigan, meaning they’ll have some extra motivation to try and bounce back with a win Sunday at the United Center.
Three Keys to the Game
Stop Nigel James Jr.
James entered this season with All-American potential and looked like the next great Marquette guard after an incredible freshman year. But he’s off to a sluggish start and had a particularly ugly performance against the Wolverines, going scoreless with an 0-for-11 mark from the field. The New York native is the engine for Smart’s offense, which lacks horsepower when James is off his game.
Mizzou has a pair of tenacious on-ball defenders in Jamier Jones and Kennard Davis Jr. that should pair up well against James, especially given his early season slump. If that pairing is entrusted with hounding James all game, it should go a long way to breaking up Marquette’s offensive flow.
Paint touches
Paint touches was a hallmark phrase of the Buzz Williams era, who wanted his team to get at least 49 of them each game on offense and viewed it as a key benchmark for success. While his departure for Virginia Tech (and then Texas A&M …. and now Maryland) means it’s no longer a central tenet of the program, it does provide a pathway to success on Sunday.
Not only will the Tigers need to generate points in the paint, they’ll also need to win the battle of the bigs against Fru. The Preseason All-Big East selection should provide a quality test for Bryson Tiller, who has lived up to the hype early this year. Another strong performance from Mizzou’s prized transfer addition would help open up the offense and limit one of the ways the Golden Eagles could relieve the pressure on James.
Up the defensive intensity
One of the hallmarks of Shaka Smart and his tenure in Milwaukee is a shutdown defense that prides itself on hustle and intensity. Marquette aims for at least 32 deflections and eight kills, meaning a stretch where the opponents goes scoreless on three straight possessions, on defense each game and makes it a central part of the program’s identity.
Everyone expects the Golden Eagles to bring the defensive intensity Sunday. Mizzou is far more of a question mark. The Tigers have had a few bright moments early interspersed among longer stretches of sloppy play and times where the team simply looks disengaged on the defensive end. They’ll need far more of the former and little of the latter during what should be a tough battle in Chicago.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 82 – Marquette 80
If you’d asked me for my prediction a week ago, I likely would have favored Marquette. I really like the Golden Eagles’ mix of potential and proven production, and I’m a big believer in the job Smart has done in Milwaukee. This is a group that should be dancing come March, and it should be a dangerous opponent in the postseason, too.
But a lot of those hopes rest on James, who should figure things out over the course of the non-conference schedule. Fortunately for the Tigers, though, they’re facing him in the middle of a slump — which makes this matchup look far more manageable. I think Mizzou’s going to catch this team at the perfect time and survive what should be a very tight and entertaining contest.
