The Cyclones appear to have made landfall at the midway point of the season, and have since lost much of their momentum gathered on the front of their schedule. We’ve come a long way from their triumph
in Ireland over K-State and for a short time it looked like that matchup was deciding the Big 12 frontrunner.
As fate would have it, Iowa State followed up their 5-0 start with four straight losses to drop to the middle of the pack in the Big 12. The squad that looked poised for a run at the Big 12 title is now hobbling into their fifth attempt at reaching bowl eligibility.
Offense
In hindsight, perhaps Rocco Becht was overrated in the preseason prognostications of Big 12 pundits. Without Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins to run the perimeter screens that helps out the Iowa State run game, Becht has struggled throwing the ball down the field. He’s on pace for a career high in interceptions, sitting at seven total for now, and has limited weaponry in his arsenal by way of skill position talent. That’s not to say that he can’t kill a defense with his legs.
Becht may struggle throwing on the run, but when he decides to take off he is lethal. He’s matched his career high in rushing touchdowns already with eight and provides another threat on the ground aside from their running back duo of Abu Sama and Carson Hansen. Each of their running backs has been duplicative and equally productive with their carries. The identity of this team is heavily reliant on being able to get ahead and then churn out the life of the game by handing it off to these two beasts. Sprinkle in a Becht rollout here and there on 3rd down and you’ve got yourself a winning offensive formula.
The key to TCU breaking this cycle, as four teams before them have done, is to score early and play with a lead. That may scare Kendal Briles but it keeps the ball out of Hansen & Sama’s hands and eliminates clock weaponization. Iowa State will test TCU’s corners undoubtedly and ECU transfer Chase Sowell is my sneaky pick to have a bit of a breakout game. Sowell was briefly courted by the Horned Frogs when he entered the transfer portal last year and hasn’t seen things click quite as fast as TCU’s eventual top receiving target Jordan Dwyer.
Defense
The Iowa State defense has lost a bit of its luster this season after carrying the team to 11 wins last year. Matt Campbell’s 3-3-5 took the conference by storm when all the offensive coordinators simultaneously figured out how to air raid past the 4-2-5 and ran into something more complex. The stress of a solid defensive tackle and gap-sound linebackers has been the hallmark of stirring that drink and this season is no different. The man in the middle has my favorite nickname in college football (“Big Citrus”) and that would be Domonique Orange.
Like most of the defense, Orange has had to struggle through some injuries this season but when he’s on it’s that much easier for the edges to rush and the linebackers to fit. Similar to the Avalos 3-3-5/4-2-5 hybrid, there isn’t much of a dependence on a single pass rusher to break the game. For that reason, ISU has nine players with at least a half sack but only two with more than one. If they’re going to make Hoover uncomfortable, it will be with simulated pressure from the DBs and LBs.
While Hoover should be comfortable on a normal cadence, the run game need not be abandoned either. ISU is currently giving up 4.6 yards per carry as a team, and TCU has shown a much better propensity to stabilize the offense when Barnes & Battle are getting carries on a regular cadence. When Orange is double teamed, Iowa State has struggled to find help at the first and second level to keep ball-carriers from busting loose. A steady dose of well-rested Kevorian Barnes is my key to wearing down this Cyclone defense.
Overall
Iowa State has seen their fortune fade as they come into Fort Worth and the Frogs have an opportunity to strike a hapless squad and jump to 7-2. As much doubt as fans have over the remaining schedule 7-2 will likely earn TCU a spot in the next AP poll, something that has slipped through ISU’s grasp after peaking at No. 12 in week 3. After a five-game gauntlet and an early first Bye, TCU has the last third of their season in rapid succession starting with this get-right contest against these Cyclones.
