Are you ready for some football? No, I’m not talking about preseason football. I’m talking about football with real, meaningful stakes attached to each and every play. The kind of football we haven’t seen from the Kansas City Chiefs for eight long months.
It’s the longest Chiefs fans have gone without meaningful football we’ve seen in more than a decade. And I, for one, have not enjoyed it.
Over this extended offseason, I’ve had plenty of time to ponder the good and bad of the roster. We all know the biggest
questions with this team: Will quarterback Patrick Mahomes look like himself after his devastating knee injury? Will the right tackle situation get sorted out? Do the Chiefs have enough at defensive end to supply a quality pass rush for the defense? Can this group of receivers finally stay healthy and perform up to their draft pedigree?
Those questions have been asked and answered time and time again. We’ll certainly continue to monitor them throughout the season, but today I want to explore some lesser-discussed factors that could meaningfully impact the 2026 Chiefs’ regular-season success.
These are, in my opinion, the five biggest X-factors of the 2026 Chiefs campaign.
5) Harrison Butker
I know this sounds small. But can Butker please get back to making extra points look automatic? Can a kickoff look less… difficult? These little things became big things for the Chiefs last season. Butker missed three extra points in his first six games. He also kicked the ball out of bounds in the fourth quarter of a tight game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and he kicked it short of the landing zone in a one-score game against the Denver Broncos.
Butker was viewed as an automatic for much of his career. He’s made 90 percent of his career postseason field goals, including an astonishing 6/7 on kicks of 50+ yards. Whenever the Chiefs get back to January, I trust him to make the big one. I just wish I still trusted him to make the easy one.
Maybe it’s unfair. But it’s something I’ll be monitoring early in the season, especially his shaky performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a missed extra point and the miss on the potential game-winning field goal.
4) Turnover Differential
Do you know how hard it is to be a negative in the turnover differential with Patrick Mahomes as your starting quarterback? The 2025 Chiefs found a way to accomplish exactly that. No, these aren’t funny numbers. The Chiefs, through Week 15 last year with a healthy Mahomes, were -2 in turnover differential.
It might have felt as though the Chiefs were committing turnovers left and right, but that wasn’t the case. The offense just found a way to commit the most back-breaking turnovers possible. Kansas City was actually tied for seventh in the NFL last year while Mahomes was healthy for fewest offensive turnovers in the league (13). Unfortunately, the defense forced just 11 turnovers over that same stretch. Only the New York Jets, Washington Commanders and New York Giants forced fewer turnovers through week 15.
To put it simply, that can’t happen.
Unfortunately, the Chiefs’ recent dip in pass rush has coincided with fewer takeaways. The Chiefs were among the top 10 in takeaways in each of Spags’ first three seasons as the defensive coordinator. Since then, the team has ranked 20th, 27th, 14th and 26th. The lack of takeaways limits opportunities for Mahomes and the offense. It puts more pressure on each drive to be perfect.
A return to the top half of the league in takeaways would go a long way toward the team returning to form overall.
3) The Linebackers
I’m not sure there’s a position group on the Chiefs’ roster that earned less offseason discussion than the linebackers. Much of that is based on circumstance. The Chiefs were cash-strapped while linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill’s deals for 2026 were all but guaranteed. Those are your starters, and there’s really never been a doubt about it.
How effective will they be, though? That’s a more reasonable question. Also uncertain is who the third linebacker will be when the Chiefs take the field against the Broncos on opening night.
Is Jeffrey Bassa ready to take on that role? Do the Chiefs trust him enough to keep him on the field over Jack Cochrane? I certainly hope so, given how ineffective Cochrane was in base defense situations last year. But we know how this staff operates, and trust goes a long way. Cochrane (right or wrong) has earned that trust.
The question with this group will always revolve around their overall lack of athleticism and ability to play against the pass. Bolton is never going to be a star in coverage, but I’m of the opinion his run defense can at times make up for some of those warts. Tranquill was a very good player for the Chiefs in his first year as a starter, but his overall effectiveness has been more erratic over the past year or two. A rebound season needs to be in the cards because both Bolton and Tranquill are going to be counted upon for an extremely heavy workload given the lack of depth at the position.
2) The Veteran Defensive Back Signings
One look at the depth chart in the secondary reminds you that the top four options are more than adequate. I’m comfortable with Nohl Williams and Mansoor Delane at cornerback. Alohi Gilman and Chamarri Conner should be an adequate safety duo.
After that, it gets more dicey.
Who is the third cornerback? Who plays in the Nickel? Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to play three safeties, but who is currently the third safety? The answer to many of these questions depends on the team’s recent defensive back signings.
Can cornerback Kristian Fulton finally become a thing? If so, it could allow Delane to bump inside in Nickel situations to put the three best corners on the field. More likely, though, Fulton is nothing more than a depth piece in the secondary.
That instead applies pressure on L’Jarius Sneed and Kader Kohou, the two cornerbacks Brett Veach signed this offseason as competition in the slot. Sneed has barely practiced and has yet to play in a preseason game, but I don’t get the sense that’s going to limit his opportunities.
“(Sneed) and I have talked about (his versatility) a lot; he’s comfortable in both,” Spagnuolo said earlier this week. “Here’s his response, always, when I ask him: ‘Wherever you need me.’ That’s what he says. So a little bit of it will be determined by who else is out there and what they can do… LJ was always a lot like Trent (McDuffie). He was always effective inside, but when we needed him to match up on somebody outside, that kind of dictated it, so that same thing might happen. We’ll see where the other guys are.”
That’s great, in theory, but it would be a lot more reassuring if we got to see it in practice. Or a game. Or, well, ever.
The slot cornerback position has been a huge liability over the past year-plus when Trent McDuffie has been playing outside. Finding an answer to that problem will be critical for the defense to take a step forward. The veteran offseason additions will go a long way in determining whether that step is possible.
1) Health
Okay, sure, this could be an X-factor for every team in the league. But I do believe it applies more to the Chiefs than to most.
The starting quarterback is attempting to return in less than a calendar year from a serious knee injury. The top two wide receivers are returning from injuries, one of which rehabbed an offseason surgery while in jail. The left tackle is missing practices with a mysterious back issue, and the right guard saw a specialist for a hip issue that held him out of camp. Both are expected back, but will they be as effective?
On the defensive side of the ball, L’Jarius Sneed hasn’t played a healthy season since the last time he was in Kansas City. Defensive end Ashton Gillotte is a question mark for opening night with a foot issue. Rookie defensive tackle Peter Woods has been dealing with an ankle issue in camp. Delane just returned from a shoulder issue. Kristian Fulton is seemingly banged up with something new every week. The depth at linebacker is non-existent.
That’s a lot of “stuff” relating to health! And I didn’t mention the 37-year-old tight end or the prized free-agent running back addition who has played a full, healthy season just once in his NFL career.
A healthy season from several of these key contributors could lead to another Chiefs playoff season and a potential return to the Super Bowl. The alternative is something I prefer not to consider.
