Ok, so I know that last year proved that we should never, ever, ever try and predict anything that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is about to do, BUT … I mean, we have to, right? What’s the fun in not.
About 95 percent of the updated bracket projections on the internet have Louisville as a 6-seed. The other 5 percent have the Cards as either a 5-seed or a 7-seed. Could they end up as a 9 or a 13? Sure. Again, last season proved that everyone, biased and completely unbiased, can be way off
on where a team winds up in the final field of 68.
Having said all of that, I think I have narrowed the reasonable list of teams that Louisville could be placed against in the first round of the Big Dance to 20.
Please not that I am operating under the assumption that if the Cards receive a surprising number next to their name that it’ll be surprising in a bad way and not a good way. If the opposite happens and U of L is somehow on the 5-line, my apologies to Akron, Yale, McNeese State, High Point and Northern Iowa for not talking about you here. We’ll talk about you plenty from Monday-Wednesday.
Would Creighton have been on this list a year ago? Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe you don’t worry about that.
These are in no particular order. Let’s dive in.
Utah State
The Aggies beat San Diego State in the Mountain West Tournament championship game pretty convincingly to assure themselves of a spot in the field of 68. I suppose there’s a scenario where they could somehow fall down to the 9 or 10 line and be pitted against the Cards if U of L gets slighted by the Committee again, but it seems unlikely.
The Aggies lost three of five to end the regular season, but still have one of the best offenses in college basketball. This wouldn’t be the worst matchup in the world for Louisville, but there are better (and far more likely) options on the list.
Ohio State
It likely would only happen in another 8/9 game assignment shocker, but this is the ultimate disaster scenario to me. Ohio State has an elite offense, good size, and one of the best players in the country in Bruce Thornton — a guy who is the exact type of player we’ve had zero answer for all season.
Most projections have the Buckeyes as an 8-seed at the moment, so it feels extremely unlikely that we could see their name pop up next to ours, but again, we are operating with an abundance of caution this season.
South Florida
The Bulls will be a sizable favorite in Sunday afternoon’s American Conference Tournament title game against either Tulsa or Wichita State. If they lose, they’re almost certain to be left out of the field. If they win, there’s a strong chance they earn an 11-seed, which could potentially put them right in Louisville’s path.
Bryan Hodgson is a rising start in the basketball coaching world who has picked up right where the late Amir Abdur-Rahim left off in Tampa. His team, if it prevails tomorrow, will have won 10 straight as it enters the Big Dance. The Bulls play an extremely similar style to Louisville: They play at one of the fastest paces in the country, they launch lots of threes, they sell out to crash the offensive glass, and they’ve struggled at times without a physical inside presence.
On paper, this would not be a bad matchup for the Cards.
Wichita State
If the Shockers upset South Florida on Sunday, I don’t think the Committee will be able to justify seeding them as high as they would have seeded USF, but again, we can’t put anything past them. They’re playing easily their best basketball of the season at the moment, but this would be a good draw for Louisville.
TCU
The Horned Frogs are brawny, they’re physical, they’re playing their best basketball of the season, and they have a coach who has consistently done some of the best work in the sport. No thank you.
Saint Louis
Another team we seem unlikely to face that wouldn’t be on this list of what happened last year hadn’t happened. The Billikens lost to Dayton in the A10 semis today, which might knock them down to a 10-seed or (I guess? Maybe?) even an 11, but the safer bet is seeing them in an 8-9 game.
I don’t hate this matchup for Louisville — SLU doesn’t have the combination of size and athleticism that has given U of L the most trouble this year — but I would be annoyed by the “Josh Heird actually wanted Josh Schertz” subplot.
Iowa
Do not want. Probably not going to get.
Bennett Stirtz is a killer, and these guys — regardless of how they’ve been playing over the last couple of weeks — are too good to face before round two.
Texas A&M
This is a tough one.
I’d be annoyed at being matched up against a team that most people have as the strongest 10 or the weakest 9-seed at the moment, and I think Bucky McMillain is one of the brightest young coaching stars in the sport, BUT … this doesn’t feel like a terrible opponent.
“Bucky Ball” is pretty similar to “Kelsey Ball,” and for the most part, we’ve played the style better than they have this season. The Aggies are one of the biggest power conference overachievers this season, and power conference overachievers are notorious for first weekend exits.
Central Florida
They aren’t a great defensive team, they don’t have a superstar scorer, and they’ve lost four of their last five, with their only win over that span coming because of an all-time last minute meltdown by Cincinnati. Sure.
Santa Clara
As an insomniac, I’ve watched the Broncos more than I’d care to admit this season. Christian Hammond and Allen Graves play with a ton of fire, and they and Elijah Mahi have some real offensive talent, but I’m still not sure just how good this team is.
Santa Clara’s non-conference results were a mixed bag, and they lost to the only two top 50 teams they played (Saint Louis by 1 and New Mexico by 27). I don’t think they defend at high enough level to keep us from getting the types of shots we like to get.
Missouri
I don’t think they’re that good, but I do think they pose some matchup problems for us. Mark Mitchell is the type of offensive player (6’9 and does it all) that we just simply do not have a proper answer for.
This is one of those weird cases where I’d rank the Tigers pretty low on this list if it were a power ranking, but I’ve had them much higher if it were a “bad matchup for Louisville” ranking.
Miami (Ohio)
Obviously the most talked about team on this list.
If the Redhawks had won the MAC Tournament and entered the Big Dance undefeated, I would have absolutely hated the circus that would have come with facing them in the first round. They’re still going to receive a ton of attention (assuming they get in), but 31-1 (or 32-1) attention is considerably different than 33-0 attention.
Like everyone else in the world, I have no idea how good these guys actually are. Having watched a solid amount of their last-minute escapes over the last couple of months, I don’t think they are on our level, and I would think that this would be a team we should take care of business against.
The pomp and circumstance would be exasperating, but there’s probably a reason these guys are hanging around the back end of the top 100 in every predictive metric out there.
VCU/Dayton
The Rams might be in the field already, but they can assure themselves of a spot if they knock off Dayton in Sunday’s A-10 tournament championship game. The Committee is notoriously lazy when it comes to Sunday title games, so my hunch is they have VCU in the field as an 11-seed, and have a contingency bracket where they simply swap Dayton into their spot in the event that the Flyers pull off the upset.
If that’s the case, the Flyers seem like the better draw for Louisville, although they’ve been playing some extremely good basketball over the last month. The problem is the Rams have been even better over that time span, which includes a pair of head-to-head wins over Anthony Grant’s team.
VCU can really shoot it as a team, and Terrence Hill Jr. is a terrific talent. They also have a more productive big than Dayton does in Lazar Djokovic, who played last season at Charleston.
Neither opponent would be a pushover, but there are worse matchups for Louisville than either, especially if we’re talking about the Flyers.
Texas
Great offense, bad defense, and losses in four of their last five. Still, it’s Texas, and they’ve got some dudes and they’ve got Sean Miller. I would be irrationally scared.
Oklahoma
They’re probably out, but if they do get in, they’re a red hot team that, like the Longhorns, can really light it up. We would probably be able to do what we want against them when we had the ball in our hands, but Nijel Pack and Xzayvier Brown would be tough to slow down.
This is probably one we don’t have to worry about, but I’d be moderately worried if they earned a surprise bid.
San Diego State
Seems highly unlikely that they’d get in after Saturday’s loss to Utah State. They’ve got a solid program pedigree and a proven March winner in Brian Dutcher, but I don’t think these guys could play with us.
Auburn
There’s never been a 16-team loss that’s received an at-large bid to the tournament. I don’t think Auburn is good, and I don’t think they deserve to be in the field, but I would be terrified if we faced them for two reasons:
1) They have a pair of stars in Keyshawn Hall and Tahaad Pettiford who can single-handedly win games in March.
2) If they get in, they’re going to spend multiple days hearing about how awful they are and what a sham it is that they’re in the field. If thrown into that situation this is the quintessential “smash someone to prove a point, feel like the job is done and then lose the next game by 35” type team.
I don’t want any part of being on the embarrassing end of that equation.
Villanova
Likely an 8-seed. I’d be furious if we were matched up against them, for obvious reasons, but I also think we’d beat them.
Georgia
Likely an 8-seed. I’d be furious if we were matched up against them, for obvious reasons. I’m not nearly as confident that we’d beat them.
One last thought: With Louisville being widely projected to be a 6-seed, there’s a decent chance the Cards find themselves in a position where their first round opponent is the winner of the First Four at-large game on either Tuesday or Wednesday. History says we should not want this.
In every year but two since the First Four became a thing in 2011, at least one of the at-large winners of a First Four game has gone on to win at least one game in the main draw of the tournament. The only times it hasn’t happened were 2019 and last year. Overall, the First Four has produced a total of 22 victories in the main draw of the tournament, five Sweet 16 squads, and two Final Four teams.
Just go ahead and give us a standard first round opponent that we can talk about for three or four full days.
As for my throw a dart based on absolutely nothing prediction: I’ll say we’re a 6-seed who draws the winner of a First Four game between Missouri and Miami of Ohio.
