Upon finishing reading my colleague Mette’s fantastic Thursday post about the downside of tanking, I couldn’t help but think about an argument that I’ve made all year behind the scenes here at Mavs Moneyball.
If the Dallas Mavericks are serious about maximizing Cooper Flagg’s career, they have to maximize their first round pick this season.
This goes back to a longstanding belief that I hold, which is that tanking is an essential part of team building. There is quite a bit of nuance that comes with
the argument for organizationally deciding to lose. Many of its detractors will point to teams like the Hornets, Wizards and Jazz as teams who have tried to quickly tank and have never pulled out of it. And while you would be correct that these teams are poster teams for “hey, tanking can be a never-ending cycle”, those teams aren’t in the Mavericks position.
Dallas is perhaps the most uniquely qualified team to do a short-term tank than anyone in recent memory. This is due to the assets the Mavericks do not have into the future, and what they do have in the near term. Here is the complete list of draft picks the Mavericks own through 2030.
- Their own 2026 first round pick
- Top two protected 2027 first round pick (pick goes to Charlotte if it is three or worse due to PJ Washington trade)
- 2028 first round pick (OKC has swap rights due to trade in 2024 that landed Daniel Gafford)
- 2029 Los Angeles Lakers first round pick (Luka trade)
- 2030 first round pick (least favorable of their own, San Antonio’s or Minnesota’s first round pick due to Grant Williams trade) and Philadelphia’s second round pick (via Quentin Grimes trade)
For those of you keeping track, that means the Mavericks control exactly ONE of their own first round draft selections from now until Cooper Flagg is on his first max contract. I don’t think people are aware of just how dire the Mavericks asset situation is.
Most teams can afford to have a slow build around their number one pick. The Mavericks, thanks to Nico Harrison’s “vision”, are not going to be afforded that luxury. Dallas is likely going to have one shot at drafting in the lottery to build around Flagg, and that chance is coming this year. All of which takes me back to the beginning.
If the Dallas Mavericks are serious about maximizing Cooper Flagg’s career, they have to maximize their first round pick this season.
In having done some legwork on the upcoming 2026 NBA Draft Class, it’s becoming increasingly clear that there is a core four of guards who teams will be lining up to take next summer. The obvious number one being Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, followed by, in some order: Houston’s Kingston Flemings, Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr., and Alabama’s Labaron Philon. In Bleacher Report’s most recent mock draft, those four players each went in the top nine. If we held the lottery today, the Mavericks would have the ninth best odds at the number one selection. There’s no wiggle room in that scenario, and yet it doesn’t have to be that way.
Dallas, as an organization, needs to ask itself tough questions to figure out where we’re going here. Keep the team as is, win 32 games, and in all likelihood miss out on the best guards in the draft? Or sell off some veterans for some draft assets, set yourself up to have a step back this season and enhance your chance at acquiring Cooper Flagg’s point guard of the future.
The choice is clear and obvious. It’s time for the Mavericks to get serious about the build around Cooper Flagg, something I’ve been calling for since the Lottery in May. For the future of the organization, the Mavericks have to get this right, right now. That can only mean one thing for Dallas: It’s time to sell and race to the bottom.
