What might Coach Justin Gainey’s first team look like? Ask me again in 12 months for a better answer.
However, he was the associate head coach on an Elite Eight team. He had been on that team for five seasons, long enough to have probably played some role in the recruitment of every player on that team. And, here’s a few bullet points that make Rick Barnes nervous:
- ’21-’22 – hired at UT – They won their first ever SEC tournament
- ’22-’23 – (promoted to associate HC & defensive coordinator) – Best defensive efficiency in the nation, 3PT defensive efficiency 2nd lowest among all D1 programs since ’07-‘08
- ’23-’24 – 3rd in defensive efficiency in the nation
- ’24-’25 – 3rd in defensive efficiency in the nation, 4th in 3PT percentage defense
- Top 25 nationally in assist rate every year, including twice placing top-six, and posted a mark over 60 percent in each campaign. UT’s point guard has been on the All-SEC team all five seasons.
I’m thinking the Tennessee model might be a great place to start. Improve on it if you can, after all, they did lose in the Elite Eight
(oh no!) but start with what you know and build on it. Let’s take a look.
Profile of the Tennessee Basketball team (25-7, 11-7)
- 16 players listed on their team site, however Massamba, Duncan, Hurst and Paull only played garbage time
- Cade Phillips (F, 6’9” 221) started 9 of the first 10 games but had season-ending surgery in December to address a left shoulder problem.
Roster Notes:
- Upper classmen are/were all transfers – Okpara, second season at UT. (exception – Phillips is junior)
- Size – 5 of 11 players are 6’8” or better – talented, each started at least 7 games – well distributed across classes. Had Phillips not gotten injured, they might have had another big in the regular rotation.
- Guards aren’t unusually tall, but on the court they are quick / disruptive / and aggressive
- Rotation – Nine players played meaningful minutes in all four NCAA tournament games and both SEC tournament games. 8 players averaged 16+ minutes for the season
Five Key Defensive Stats – Plus One:
- This Tennessee team was build on an elite defense and a good offense.
- If you look at the KenPom page for Tennessee, there is a lot of green in the defensive column
- Please bring some of that offensive rebounding with you!
- Excellent defensive team, hard to get good shots, hard to get good 3PT looks – prefers long players, limiting passing lanes
On the Tennessee Defense
Alec Lower wrote an excellent piece over at TRT with a deep dive into the defense.
Favorite quote “Most notably, Tennessee just guards the ball very well. Just straight up getting beat off the dribble isn’t part of the deal for Tennessee. They’ll get their hands on you and they really move their feet. You see a lot of high-off-the-glass and a lot of turn-around pull ups when opponents try to create off the dribble. They don’t get beat that often.”
So What Might This Team Look Like? It’s Going to Look Like Justin Gainey, the Player.
Coach Gainey: “…the one thing that I pride myself on was toughness. I tried to bring that every day. And as long as I’m your head coach, you can count on that every single day that I’m gonna bring that toughness. And all of my teams and my staff and everybody associated with us, we will have that toughness.”
Herb Sendek called him the “Prudential Man” because he is “rock solid.” Gainey may be the poster-child for improvement as he has continued to get better throughout his career.
[between his junior and senior seasons] Gainey increased his three-point and free-throw shooting percentages by at least 10 points each, last season. He went up an incredible 22 percent at the free-throw line (from 65.4 percent in ’98 to 87.4 percent last year), finishing with the third-highest percentage in school history. Gainey also improved his field-goal percentage by five points (from 37.1 percent in “98 to 42.7 percent last year). As a freshman, Gainey began the year by committing 24 turnovers in the Pack’s first 16 games, but had just eight TOs in the final 10 games. “Justin is an everyday guy,” said Sendek. “He shows up every day and does what he’s supposed to do and gets a little bit better. He shows up the next day and does the same thing and gets a little bit better. If anybody has come as close as possible to reaching their potential, it is Justin Gainey.”
Scheduling
Not sure if Coach Gainey will in any way mirror UT’s scheduling strategy, but generally I like what they did. KP grades their schedule as 6th overall, non-conference was 161. With the ACC not being as strong as the SEC, (NC State’s schedule ranked 80th in non-con) might need to bump up that bottom end a bit but the rest is great.
- 300’s – 3 schools
- 200’s – 1 school
- 100’s – 4 schools
- Top 100 Highlights: 5 Houston (W), 21 Kansas (L), 87 Syracuse (L), 4 Illinois (L), 19 Louisville (W)
Players – What’s the Buzz after only a couple of days?
** Caveat ** There are few facts, mostly just hearsay and guessing. It is very early. The portal isn’t open. We’ll probably know much more about the current players in the next week or so.
- Paul McNeil – He was not interested in going south with whatshisname, has also said he likes the hire. However, he is not on campus, his focus is NBA workouts and the feedback they will provide. There are a lot of great players that will be in the draft, highly likely he will wait a another year before committing. NC State should be considered the favorite so far, but he’s going to get some nice offers. He’ll be expensive.
- Matt Able – Has been open about his preference to transfer, Miami (his original destination last season) is a player. Rumor is he did not like whatshisname, so changing coaches might make a difference.
- Mikey Wilkins, Jayme Kontuniemi, Colt Langdon – All redshirts. (Colt is applying for a medical redshirt) All appear to be NC State leans, all will have four years available so this could be our 2026 freshman class.
- Cole Cloer – Just announced he will enter the transfer portal. It feels like a money play. He’s trying to reset his value in this season’s market. He says NC State is still in play.
- Trevon Carter-Givens – Some say he appears to be leaning toward following whatshisname.
- Terrance Arceneaux – He fits the mold of what Coach Gainey likes (long, quick, athletic defenders) He might stick around, but rumor is that he was very expensive compared to his productivity.
- Jerry Deng – He will apply to redshirt this season and sell two seasons elsewhere.
- Musa Sagnia – No info.
What About the ’Mercenary Market’?
Some players with connections to North Carolina, NC State, or Coach Gainey have entered / are expect to enter the portal:
- Freddie Dilione V (SG – 6’5” 195 – rising SR) – 14 ppg / 3.2 rpg / 2.2 apg / 31.8 3PT% – He has actually entered the portal. Coach Gainey recruited him to UT his freshman season, he transferred to PSU for his soph and Junior seasons. He started 15 of 32 games this season. Season highs: 25 pts (x2) / 9 reb / 5 assists (x2), 4 steals. From Fayetteville.
- Bishop Boswell (CG – 6’4” 204 – rising JR) – 6.2 ppg / 4.4 rpg / 3.1 apg / 38.5 3PT% – He has not entered the portal but is rumored to be entering. Another Coach Gainey recruit, played two seasons at UT, full time starter this season. There is a clip floating around of Coach Gainey saying Boswell is a beast on defense. He is said to be able to play point guard. Season highs: 13 pts (x4), two double-doubles with 11 & 10 reb, 9 assists, 3 steals (x5). From Charlotte.
- Juke Harris (CG – 6’7” 200 – rising JR) – 21.4 ppg / 6.5 rpg / 1.9 apg / 33.2 3PT% – He has entered the transfer portal but will also be testing the NBA option. Coach Gainey recruited him to UT and got him on campus for an official visit. Harris blew up this season, leading the Deacs in scoring, rebounding and steals. Season highs: 38 pts, five double-doubles, 15 rebs, 3 steals (x4). From Salisbury.
- Najal Hines (F – 6’10” 265 – rising SO) – 6.5 ppg / 5.5 rpg / 0.6 apg – He has entered the portal. He was an NC State target last year but ultimately chose Seton Hall. Did not start this season. Season highs: 12 points, 16 rebounds, 7 blocks. Played high school ball, both basketball and football, in Garner. Had football scholarship offers from WVU, Houston, and South Carolina.
- Cade Phillips (F – 6’9” 221 – rising SR) – 3.8 ppg / 4 rpg / 0.4 apg He plans to enter the portal. He started 9 of the first 10 games this season for Tennessee before requiring shoulder surgery. He might be eligible for a medical redshirt and regain a season. Season highs: 9 points , 9 rebounds
- Dennis Parker Jr (SF – 6’6” 205 – rising SR) – 18.3 ppg / 5.9 rpg / 1.3 apg 37.7 3PT%. He has entered the portal. DPJ transferred away from NC State to Radford when Keatts left. He blossomed in the Big South, starting every game and upped his game in almost every statistical category – and that 3PT shooting (60-159) looks a lot better. Just a couple of days before McNeil went for his career high 47 (11-17 from 3PT) in December, DPJ went off for 53 (10-14 from 3PT). It would be highly unusual to have a player transfer back, but he might be relatively inexpensive and he has that length and athleticism that Gainey is after. Season highs: 53 points (11 games with 20+), 11 rebounds (x3), 3 steals (x8)
