The emotional whiplash of following the Washington Commanders football team hasn’t relented in the first quarter of the season. Just when the Week 3 gritty home upset win against Seattle appeared to stabilize the ship and reignite optimism, a dreary, injury-filled and mistake-prone Sunday game in London last week against Daniel Jones and the Colts sent fan confidence careening back down the hill.
In this week’s Reacts survey, we asked, as we do every week, about fan confidence, and we looked at the
schedule for the coming month to see what fans expect from a critical three-game stretch that includes 2 games before, and one game after, the Week 7 bye. The poll results reflect a fanbase that is feeling thoroughly beaten down by injuries and inconsistent play — though a closer examination of the upcoming schedule suggests things might not be quite as dire as these results imply.
Here is how the Hogs Haven community voted.
Question 1: Are you confident the Commanders are headed in the right direction?
The weekly roller coaster ride continues.
After sitting at 70% in Week 1, confidence peaked at 83% after Week 2. It then dropped like a stone to 20% in Week 3 after the Jayden Daniels injury in the loss at Dallas, but surged back to 76% following the Seattle win. Now, fan confidence has cratered again, dropping 47 points to just 29% in the wake of the loss in London in which third string rookie QB Athan Kaliakmanis was forced to step up to the plate when injuries sidelined both Jayden Daniels and his backup Marcus Mariota.
The volatility in responses and its connection to the results of the latest game played are pretty obvious.
For others, the skepticism runs deeper than a single Sunday result — underlying the lack of confidence is consistent lack of to overarching sideline execution and preparation:
Still, not everyone in the community is ready to throw in the towel on the coaching staff. As commenter SSP pointed out when looking at the bigger picture:
“There was big risk in choosing both a rookie OC and DC, is it any wonder it might take a few games for them to hit their stride? We beat the defending SB champs, are we there? No, but it feels like there is a plan and we aren’t looking for a quick fix that will fade just as quickly… injuries will happen as well, in the end I don’t see how any long time fan can’t be happy with the direction of the team.”
Question 2: What will the Commanders’ record be over their next 3 games?
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When asked to project the upcoming four-week, three-game stretch that includes the bye week — featuring home games against the Giants and Eagles sandwiched around a road trip to San Francisco and the bye — the pessimism carried over directly. A combined 62% of respondents believe Washington will post a losing record (winning one or zero games), with more than a quarter of those fans bracing for a complete 0-3 shutout.
That apprehension seems extreme, but may be understandable given what fans saw in the first four weeks of the season.
Yet, while dropping a road contest against a powerhouse 49ers squad out west is a very reasonable expectation, writing off both home NFC East matchups seems, to me, to ignore several matchup advantages working in Washington’s favor.
The case for 2-1 and home optimism
Weeks 5 & 8
Consider Week 5 against the New York Giants. Washington is actually favored by 3.5 points, and for good reason. New York lost starting rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart for the season to injury, forcing them to turn to an erratic Jameis Winston as the starter (with JJ McCarthy waiting in the wings). While New York currently sits at 3-1, all three of their victories came at MetLife Stadium against opponents with a combined record of just 3-6. They have not proven they can win away from home, having lost their only road game of the season. Furthermore, Dan Quinn has owned this divisional rivalry since arriving in Washington, posting a clean 4-0 record against the Giants over the past two seasons. With a Commanders win on Sunday, the Giants would fall to 3-2 while the Commanders climb to 2-3, just a game out of first place in the division.
Even Giants fans don’t buy the hype of the team’s 3-1 start
The return of JD5
Also, the cavalry appears to be coming over the hill for Washington’s roster. The team said Jayden Daniels will to return under center this Sunday after missing time with his elbow injury. The offensive front—which struggled heavily in London with pass protection and opening run lanes—is also tracking to get cornerstone right guard Sam Cosmi back into the starting lineup alongside other potential reinforcements on both sides of the ball.
The evidence of the win over Seattle
Washington is undefeated in its only true home appearance at Northwest Stadium this season, having grinded out that 33-31 win over Seattle – a game in which Seattle never held the lead, and in which the Commanders offense sat on the ball and watched the final two minutes tick down to 00:00 and victory without trying to advance down the field or score. Washington beat Seattle more comprehensively than the scoreboard or box score would indicate.
Looking ahead to Week 8 against Philadelphia, Washington will have the immense advantage of playing at home coming directly off their bye week, giving the coaching staff an extra week of prep and battered players an extra week of recovery.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been looking pretty vulnerable through the first month of the season. Under new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion, the Eagles’ offense has sputtered through disjointed series, and struggled with third-down efficiency. Their once-dominant offensive line took a crushing blow with the sudden, unexpected retirement of All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson, and the rest of their roster, already depleted with the trade of AJ Brown to New England, has been plagued by a rash of injuries that may be at least as extensive as those that have struck Washington’s roster. In the trenches and along the perimeter, they simply are not the terrifying juggernaut that rolled into the NFC Championship two seasons ago. Fans and media in Philly are once again calling for Nick Sirianni’s head, and this time, I get the sense that they might actually get it.
My expectations for what lies ahead
The next 4 weeks
A 2-1 mark across the upcoming three-game block in October and early November simply does not strike me as wishful thinking; in my mind, it is a very realistic outcome if Washington takes advantage of (finally) enjoying the benefits of playing at home and getting some time to rest and recover in Week 7.
Weeks 9 to 16
There is a compelling argument that Washington can successfully defend its home turf in Weeks 5 and 8 and enter the ninth week of the season just one game below .500 and facing a string of at least 7 winnable games that include the Giants (again), Bengals, Cardinals, Titans, Texans, Falcons, and Vikings. It doesn’t take much imagination to see the Commanders heading to Jacksonville in Week 17 with a winning record and in the hunt for a playoff berth.
It starts this weekend
In any event, the turnaround begins this Sunday, when the Commanders host the New York Giants at Northwest Stadium in Landover.
- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
- Per FanDuel, the Commanders are favored (-3.5) with the over/under set at a very low 43.5 points.
Pack the stands, get loud, and let’s see if the burgundy & gold can take care of business at home.
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