Confession:
I have not watched enough Houston Rockets games this year.
I feel bad about it. I write about the team. I’ve never been an 82-game fan. Are you crazy? Living where I do is a factor. Some of these games start at 11 PM for me. I am writing this on my 39th birthday. You do the math:
I might be long past the point of counting sheep by the third quarter.
Yet for most of my life, I have been a 70-to-75-game-a-year fan. In 2025-26, I’m on pace for…maybe 55-60ish? It’s enough (in my opinion) to understand
the team. It’s not necessary to see the same failings play out over (and over, and over, and over) again.
(Note: This was written before the big Hawks win. I’m not sure if that game changes much about the piece’s driving logic, but it may have changed the tone)
I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but I will give it a little kick. The Rockets don’t have a point guard. Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson can’t shoot. Sengun and Reed Sheppard can’t easily defend together. It’s hard to think of a wing joke here that doesn’t refer to chicken. The Rockets have too many wings, OK? Never mind a joke.
Some fans have identified Sengun as the common denominator. If he can’t play with either Thompson or Sheppard, he’s the obvious candidate to move. That would be a more viable argument if he hadn’t been the best overall player of the trio in their careers to date. What’s the solution here?
What would make the Rockets watchable in 2027-28?
Rockets face uncertainty
Moreover, Kevin “Don’t Call Me Michael” Dickerson Durant has had a tangible negative psychological effect on a team that’s generally felt it had strong chemistry. You can see it: You can feel it. It’s a dark cloud.
Durant is 37. Every other player that’s been mentioned here is barely old enough to drink in the United States. This creates a schism. Fundamentally, the Rockets have four options:
- Rebuild
- Retool
- Consolidate
- Stay the course
Option 4 is overwhelmingly likely heading into 2026-27. The Rockets would be wise to add any player who can shoot. They’ll likely lean on Fred VanVleet’s return to fill the ball-handling vacuum. Steven Adams will return, and otherwise, fans can expect to watch what they’re watching now in addition to those inclusions.
Let’s rule out Option 1. Options 2 and 3 loom as remote possibilities. It wouldn’t be a shock for the Rockets to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo this summer, but it would register as a surprise. They could move one of Sengun, Thompson, or Sheppard to alleviate some of the roster construction issues, but that would veer closer to shock than surprise.
It would be painful, and entirely unnecessary.
Rockets can afford to take a long view
Pretend Kevin Durant is not a Houston Rocket. Imagine a world where Rafael Stone traded Jalen Green for, let’s say, Khris Middleton, just to get off his contract.
(An intensely painful hypothetical, but bear with the thought experiment).
Say Dillon Brooks is gone, too. He spontaneously combusted, or retired to pursue spiritual purity: Doesn’t matter. The point is to imagine the exact roster the Rockets have this year without Durant.
They’d have a worse record. Durant has 8.3 Win Shares in 2025-26. This is a rudimentary (probably deeply flawed) approach. There’s a Butterfly Effect that isn’t quantifiable. For argument’s sake, let’s add an two extra wins and operate under the assumption that Houston would have six fewer wins if Durant were replaced with a league-average wing (so, roughly Middleton).
They’d have 35 wins. That would put them a game ahead of the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers. The Clippers are old and virtually without future draft equity. Houston would unambiguously be in a better position than the Clippers in this hypothetical.
The Blazers are young: Does anyone think Portland is a dumpster fire? Isn’t the consensus that this organization is in a fine spot? OK, now ask yourself this: Don’t the Rockets have a comparably talented young roster? Doesn’t it feel like they’re even a little bit better?
Now, consider that the Rockets have a far more impressive collection of draft capital than the Blazers.
So, if the Rockets didn’t have Durant, they’d still be in a good place. They’d be young, talented, and major players in the draft game. The public is effectively penalizing them for having Durant, when in reality, Durant is house money. The money that’s been invested is still projecting a good return on investment.
The Rockets don’t need to do anything rash. They can run the same roster back next year. If the result is another disappointing season, they can look into options again.
They’re also quite likely to have a high lottery pick during that summer. The Rockets have swap rights with the Brooklyn Nets, and they outright own the Phoenix Suns’ first. Between those two assets, the odds are reasonably high that they’ll land a quality pick.
Yes, it’s generally perceived as a weak draft. So was the Anthony Bennett Giannis Antetokounmpo class. The draft is volatile, which can cut both ways. Supposing the Rockets land a good pick, they can take the guy they like the most, and either move forward with the same roster or a similar, but retooled one.
Can we talk about the 2029 draft? Houston owns the two most favorable of their own, the Mavericks’, and the Suns’ picks. Once again, they’ll be in a prime position to land a top pick. Nobody can say what that class looks like. For all we know, there’s a 14-year-old in Sri Lanka or Moldova who will be ready to change basketball by then.
To summarize: Acquiring Durant shifted the narrative around the Rockets to a present-focused discussion. Given that they have so much future-focused equity, it’s fallacious thinking. The team is depressing right now, but that shouldn’t distract anyone from the fact that they’re in a good, if complicated, position moving forward.
For now, let’s just try to watch them when we can.
