Michigan State dropped to 0-2 in the Big Ten yesterday and 3-2 overall. With 7 games remaining on the schedule, the Spartans need to win three of them, at least, to become bowl eligible for the first time since the 2021 season. Here is my ranking of where we are most likely to pick up those needed victories, starting with the least likely.
7. @ Indiana (October 18)
The only good news about this game is that the Hoosiers will be coming off a trip to Oregon a week prior, so maybe they still have a hangover
from playing the #2 Ducks when they take on the Spartans. But at 5-0 on the season, Indiana has proven that last year’s 11-1 season was no fluke. Indiana is 5th in the nation with 538.2 yards per game and 4th with 47.8 PPG. They put up 63 against a then-top 10 Illinois. This one could get ugly for us.
6. Vs. Penn State (November 15)
Sure, the Nittany Lions are also 0-2 in the Big Ten. One of those was a double-overtime contest with Oregon. The other, yesterday’s shocker to previously winless UCLA, feels like it can be chalked up to the circumstances. East coast school traveling to the west coast coming off that Oregon loss. So I still think the Nittany Lions are better than we saw yesterday. They have a solid (though maybe not as good as I had expected) QB, weapons on offense, and a stout defense (usually). But maybe the timing of this game helps MSU as Penn State will be coming off consecutive games at Ohio State and against Indiana before visiting East Lansing, while MSU will be coming off their 2nd bye week.
5. @ Iowa (November 22)
Perhaps another fortuitous break from the scheduling gods as Iowa will be coming off of consecutive weeks facing Oregon and at USC (who may just be ranked at that point), though MSU will be coming off their Penn State game. Iowa, like usual, has an incredibly stingy defense this year, allowing only 254.2 yards and 15.6 points per game. If Indiana only managed to score 20 against the Hawkeyes, what is the MSU offense going to do?
4. Vs. u*m (October 25)
Let me just come out and say that this year’s team from ann arbor does not scare me. Their offense seems entirely one dimensional and our defensive line seems to be playing better than earlier in the year, so I think we will be able to shut down their run game. This year’s tilt is in East Lansing and I expect the home crowd to make a difference as there should still be some feelings from last year’s game.
3. @ Minnesota (November 1)
The only reason this one is not in the top 2 is because it is on the road. The Golden Gophers managed a field goal and 162 total yards of offense yesterday against Ohio State. While we are not the Buckeyes, I can convince myself that we could do better than 3 points if we played them. The Gophers struggle to run the ball even more than we do, and I expect a cold November game in the twin cities to turn into a run heavy affair. I like the Spartans if that ends up being the case.
2. Vs. Maryland (November 29 @ Ford Field)
The final game of the season will be on a neutral field in Detroit though the crowd will still tilt heavily for the Spartans. While the Terrapins are currently 4-1, their schedule thus far has been a breeze. They totally collapsed at home against Washington yesterday, surrendering 24 straight points in the second half to lose their 20-0 lead and their perfect record. The rest of their calendar features three ranked B1G teams as well as Nebraska and a trip to the west coast to play UCLA. There is a good chance they may need a win in this game also to become bowl eligible.
1. Vs. UCLA (October 11)
Sure, the Bruins just upset Penn State in the Rose Bowl, but as I said above, that felt more like Penn State not showing up ready to play than it was an indication of UCLA’s strength. After all, Penn State scored 30 points in the second half and got all the way to the UCLA 9 with a chance to tie it late until they were stopped on a 4th down play. And this is going to be a west coast team coming to the eastern time zone for a noon start, or 9 AM for the Californians. There is a reason UCLA has only won a single game this year, and I expect that to remain the case when next week’s game goes final.
If I were to categorize these contests, I would have the following tiers:say that 2 (@ Indiana, vs. Penn State) are very unlikely win
Very unlikely to win: @ Indiana, Penn State
Unikely to win: @ Iowa
Likely to win: vs. u*m, @ Minnesota
Very likely to win: vs. Maryland, vs. UCLA
If MSU does beat UCLA, u*m, and Minnesota, then the finale will not be for bowl eligibility. But if we slip in one of those, and assuming we don’t upset Indiana, Penn State, or Iowa, then we will need to beat Maryland to go to the postseason.
What do you all think? Which is our toughest game? Which is our easiest game? Do you think we will get to 6 wins?
