The optimism that surrounded the Orioles a few years ago was the result of a well-stocked farm system that had already begun producing big league talent. Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson debuted in 2022 on an Orioles team that over-performed expectations. The 2023 campaign brought the debut of Jordan Westburg, a Cy Young-calber season from Kyle Bradish, and 101 wins for the Orioles. The upward trajectory of the franchise was clear. But something has been off since the second half of 2024, and that includes
a stunting of the team’s homegrown players.
These struggles are not specific to any one player. Rutschman was bad at the plate for a stretch that lasted an entire season and then some. Henderson has been a below-average hitter throughout 2026. Jackson Holliday has had flashes, though is yet to look like the former top overall prospect that he was. Colton Cowser may be the streakiest player in baseball with the deepest troughs and electric peaks. But there may be no player that has fans more divided than Coby Mayo.
Unlike many of his highly-regarded peers that came up through the Orioles system, Mayo was not an especially high draft pick. The O’s plucked him out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida with their fourth-round selection in 2020, though he did get a signing bonus more aligned with that of a second-round pick. There were warts on his profile that had many scouts worried about his unconventional swing and lack of an obvious defensive position, plus a belief that he was destined for college. The Orioles were able to talk him out of that committment.
Mayo mashed in the minors, including a .973 OPS across Double-A and Triple-A in 2023. That success catapulted him up the prospecting ranking charts. Heading into the 2024 season he was considered a top 30 prospect by each of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB Pipeline. It seemed as though the Orioles had their next star on deck.
Unfortunately, it hasn’t turned out that way. Mayo debuted in Baltimore at the tail end of the 2024 season, but struggled mightily. Over 17 games he hit .098/.196/.098. He returned in 2025, this time often as a first baseman. There was progress. Mayo hit .217/.299/.388 with 11 home runs overall and really seemed to be turning a corner late in the season when he had a .941 OPS in September.
Whatever was working for Mayo at the end of 2025 hasn’t really carried into ’26. He has been on the big league squad all year, mostly at third base in place of an injured Westburg. But he hasn’t exactly taken the position as his own. On the year, Mayo has an underwhelming .190/.260/.376 batting line with 10 home runs. That unevenness at the plate has often driven manager Craig Albernaz to rotate other members of the roster onto the hot corner.
Defense has also been an issue for Mayo this year. No matter which stat you look at, glovework is not Mayo’s specialty. He has been worth -4 outs above average overall, according to Baseball Savant, which is near the bottom of the league. FanGraphs lists Mayo has worth -8 defensive runs saved. But he wasn’t exactly set up to succeed in that regard.
It seemed like Mayo had almost entirely made the transition to being a first baseman in 2025. He played 605.1 major league defensive innings last year; 586.1 of them were played at first base. Then, the Orioles went and signed Pete Alonso in the offseason and held onto Mayo. Overnight, he was back to being a third baseman, a position that had already struggled with and where most scouts have long said he didn’t fit.
You can understand the Orioles perspective on this. They wanted to upgrade the lineup and inject power. Positional fit was secondary, and it’s not as if Mayo had done enough to become a player worth carving out an everyday spot for. The decision to sign Alonso is one that the Orioles front office can be proud of. He is one of the few members of the lineup that has continually carried his own weight. It’s up to Mayo to perform and prove himself. That hasn’t happened, at least not on an everyday basis.
An area where Mayo has shown quite well is facing left-handed pitching. Among players with at least 60 plate appearances against southpaws this year, Mayo’s 196 wRC+ ranks third in MLB, and he is tied for sixth in home runs (seven). When the Orioles do face a lefty, Albernaz is often pushing Mayo higher up in the order, and it usually works out.
The ability to mash left-handed pitching to that level is enough to keep Mayo in the big leagues for a long time. But the glove is not going to work at third base in any capacity, perhaps beyond the occasional fill in. Maybe the Orioles can keep working with him on positioning and footwork, but there was a reason they moved him off the position last year, and the only reason he is back is because Westburg is hurt and there are seemingly no suitable replacements.
A move to right field, as many prospects folks have long speculated, probably does make the most sense. And it could fit for the future Orioles too. The team seems likely to have some outfield innings up for grabs going int0 2027. Taylor Ward and Leody Taveras will be free agents. Tyler O’Neill, who is signed through next season, is on pace to have himself and his .552 OPS this year released early. Heston Kjerstad probably needs to have something click this year, or move on to another organization. Mayo could fit as a platoon bat in right with the left-handed hitting Dylan Beavers while still mixing in the occasional game on the infield or DH, or being deployed in pinch hit spots late in games.
A change like that is unlikely to happen in-season unless the Orioles fall completely out of contention. At that point, they may as well try something. The idea that Mayo is an attractive trade chip to land the Orioles some sort of big league contributor is probably over. He does have plenty of team control since he won’t hit free agency until after the 2031 season, and many organizations would be open to getting his talent through their doors. But he has also seen his many flaws exposed on the big league stage. Potential trade partners will understand that risk and any sort of return is likely to be underwhelming.
