Since most of my articles are of the “let’s see what the Green Bay Packers did in the previous week” vein, bye week posts are always a bit tricky for me. Even so, I was proactive this week. I watched film
on Jake Browning and Brett Rypien. Those are real things I did. I spent time out of my day watching film on Browning and Rypien and writing notes about them. I was ready, man. No stone left unturned.
Then I get a text in the middle of the day that the Cincinnati Bengals have traded for Joe Flacco. The worst part about all of this is I now have very specific takes on Jake Browning that I will never, ever use. A crucial high school memory has been booted from my brain to make way for Browning takes. I have made poor decisions in my life.
But the past is in the past. We’re on to Cincinnati and Joe Flacco.
As Packers fans, we just saw Joe Flacco back in that Week 3 loss to the Browns. I don’t know what your brain remembers from that game, but the first thing that pops into your head probably is not “boy, Joe Flacco had a real nice game.”
He completed 58.3% of his passes for 3.9 yards per attempt, 0 TDs and 2 INTs on his way to a 55.6 QB Rating.
But it wasn’t just that game: Flacco has not had a great season. Per NextGen, Flacco’s EPA per Dropback on the season is -0.41, 2nd worst in the league. The only QB with a worse number than Flacco? Jake Browning, with -0.44 EPA per Dropback. (EPA is Expected Points Added, so EPA per Dropback measures the average amount of points a QB is adding to the offensive performance every time he drops back.)
It doesn’t just stop there, though. Flacco’s numbers are bad, no matter which filter you put on. You want to talk pass depth? Flacco has negative EPA per Dropback on passes 20+ yards down the field (-0.20, 5th worst in the league), 10-19 yards down the field (-0.15, 6th worst in the league) and under 10 yards down the field (-0.34, worst in the league).
You want to talk about when he throws the ball? He has a negative EPA on passes that he throws in less than 2.5 seconds (-0.31, worst in the league) and on throws over 2.5 seconds (-0.50, 2nd worst in the league behind only Jake Browning). Flacco under pressure? Also, a negative EPA (-0.85, worst in the league, with Browning second worst).
If you want a somewhat charitable reading, it’s that EPA doesn’t account for all the variables on a field. For example, if a QB throws a pass that hits the hands of a receiver but doesn’t end in a completion, it results in negative EPA. You can say that throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should provide better results than throwing to Jerry Jeudy and Isaiah Bond, and I’d say that you are probably right.
Even then, the down-to-down consistency isn’t there from Flacco this season. He’ll give his receivers some chances on deep balls, but he’s not attempting as many deep passes this year as Browning: on the season, 12.9% of Browning’s passes are 20+ yards down the field (7th most in the league), while Flacco is at 8.1% (22nd in the league).
If you’re not pushing the ball down the field and giving your guys a shot on the outside, you need to be perfect operating down the field, and the EPA in the short game tells an accurate story in terms of how Flacco has looked on the season. He has 66 dropbacks this season where he’s getting rid of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds (that would be either 3-step, quick-game concepts or WR screens) and, as we talked about earlier, his EPA per Dropback is worst in the league in those situations. He’s not operating a clean offense with the consistency in accuracy that you would want out of a QB with the limited mobility he possesses.
And if there’s pressure? Man, forget it.
The thought with Flacco is that he’s been around a long time and knows where the ball is supposed to go; that he’ll give you a nice, clean operation, keep the chains moving and give the receivers some chances to make plays down the field.
The reality is that he’s an inconsistent QB. He’ll give the receivers a handful of opportunities down the field, and some of those may even hit. But you can’t build an entire offense out of vertical shots, and he hasn’t shown enough consistency in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field to show that he’s capable of operating a down-to-down functional offense.
Albums listened to: Golden Apples – Shooting Star; Bad Bunny – X 100PRE
