courtesy of Rate Bowl
New Mexico Lobos @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Mountain West Conference vs The Big Ten Conference
Rate Bowl Preview | By Roger A. Holien, Mountain West Connection part of SB Nation
Where to Watch:
ESPN
Date: Friday, Dec. 26
Time: 2:30 pm (MT)
Game Location:
Chase Field (Phoenix, Ariz.)
New Mexico at Minnesota in the Rate Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
A showcase for New Mexico’s continued growth and commitment to playing physical, disciplined football as a Mountain West competitor,
along with its potential to upset a Big Ten opponent, will be on full display for a national audience on ESPN.
First Year Head Coach Jason Eck is leading the Lobos into the bowl game after completing their regular season with a 6-0 run and entering the postseason ranked among the top 25 teams in the country in total defense, including limiting opponents to 12.3 points per game in each of the last three weeks.
To say the Lobos have overachieved would be the understatement of the year, as most media experts and fans expected them to win maybe two or three games at the most this year.
For this year’s team to be where they are with over 77 transfers, a brand new coaching staff, and losses of some big-time player makers from last year’s Bronco Mendenhall-led team is really mind-blowing.
The Lobos’ defense is particularly suited to slow down the Minnesota run game, which was the worst in the Big Ten this year.
As such, the game is the perfect opportunity for New Mexico to confirm its recent development from fringe contenders to one of the most physically disciplined teams in the Mountain West Conference.
In addition, the Lobos will provide a counterpoint to a traditional Big Ten opponent that emphasizes ball control, a structured defense, and error-free football.
Matchup Analysis:
P.J. Fleck leads the Minnesota Golden Gophers into the Rate Bowl undefeated in bowl games and will likely be favored because of the Big Ten-Mountain West label. However, the public is heavily supporting Minnesota based on conference reputation rather than performance on the field.
As a result, there is considerable debate regarding whether the public belief of Minnesota’s superiority is merited.
Ultimately, this game follows a familiar pattern: a mid-level power program faces a proven, in-form group of five programs.
Minnesota finished its regular season with a 7-5 overall record and a 5-4 mark in the Big Ten, while New Mexico headed into the postseason with a 9-3 overall record and a 6-2 record in the Mountain West.
Additionally, New Mexico has shown it can compete with a major opponent in terms of physical size and strength, especially when considering the teams they have played against and competed with, including some big-time programs.
The Lobos held Michigan scoreless in the second half of a 24-23 loss in Week 1 and then defeated UCLA 35-10 in Week 8.
These results eliminated any remaining doubts about New Mexico’s ability to deal with Big Ten size and strength.
Statistically, New Mexico holds an advantage over Minnesota in terms of both offensive and defensive EPA per play, and the Lobos were the more consistent program on both sides of the ball throughout the season.
Minnesota did not stand out from the pack of mid-tier FBS programs statistically this year but still remain a very solid opponent and, in many ways, if one compares both teams, they are similar.
The Minnesota offense is less effective for New Mexico too. The Gophers had trouble producing a strong running game and now face one of the top rush defenses in the country.
Minnesota is going into the bowl game without some crucial defensive-line contributors, and the Gophers may not ease pressure on the passing game because they are thin at wide receiver and their quarterback has not been consistent this year.
Although there are still concerns about New Mexico’s offense, the Lobos have many favorable situations to exploit against the Gophers. Minnesota will miss some contributors on the defensive line, creating opportunities for a New Mexico offense looking to establish the run quickly.
If the Lobos are forced into obvious passing situations, they have shown efficiency in these situations and are significantly better than Minnesota in drop-back success metrics.
Further supporting the Lobos are situational trends. Under Jason Eck, the Lobos have performed well in games with closely matched lines, and they have been consistent both straight-up and against the spread in non-conference games.
Historically, Fleck’s teams have struggled when faced with a defense that limits the opponent’s ability to run the ball – a category that New Mexico’s defense is clearly in.
Overview of the New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos have established a distinct and consistent identity: control the ground game, protect the football, and win with a physical, disciplined defense.
The Lobos are not a team that relies on explosive plays or gimmicks; instead, they emphasize toughness, execution, and composure throughout all four quarters.
Within a run-based offense, quarterback Jack Layne is a steady leader. Layne has displayed patience under pressure and has taken what defenses give him, minimizing the risk of almost 2400 passing yards and 13 touchdown passes.
The running game is the backbone of New Mexico’s success. A deep and physical backfield with leaders like Damon Bankston, DJ McKinney, and Scotty Humphrey provides balance, toughness, and scoring ability. When the Lobos establish the run early, it is tough to beat them–the Lobos are unbeaten when they exceed 80 rushing yards.
Defensively, the Lobos play aggressively and rapidly with excellent communication.
Linebacker Jaxton Eck leads the defense with his tackling and leadership, and defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby consistently pressures opposing offenses with negative plays and disruptions. The Lobos’ secondary is disciplined in coverage and precise in tackling, eliminating explosive plays and forcing opponents to earn every yard.
Overview of the Minnesota Gophers
Minnesota’s method is simple: have an efficient offense, a good defense, and a positive turnover margin. Quarterback Drake Lindsey is at his best when the Gophers can control the tempo and use a short-to-intermediate passing game.
However, this year’s Minnesota team has been inconsistent. The Gophers have struggled on the ground, and their road performances have lacked a defining moment.
If the Gophers cannot control the tempo early, they risk being drawn into a long, physical, four-quarter battle–a style of game that New Mexico is well-suited to thrive in.
Players to Watch
New Mexico:
- QB Jack Layne: Must stay calm and avoid turnovers
- RBs Damon Bankston/DJ McKinney/Scottre Humphrey: Represent the identity of the Lobos’ offense
- LB Jaxton Eck: Leader emotionally and statistically of the defense
- DE Keyshawn James-Newby: Disruptor who can flip drives
Minnesota:
- QB Drake Lindsey: Must be efficient and avoid long third downs
- O-line: Sets the tone for the Minnesota offense
- Defense: Must slow the physical rushing attack of the Lobos
Things to Watch For
Scrimmage Line: Will the Lobos be able to match Minnesota in size and strength up front?
Tempo: New Mexico would like to shorten the game; Minnesota likes to control the pace.
Turnovers: Both teams place a premium on protecting the football – one mistake could determine the outcome of the game.
Support from Fans: Because Phoenix is easily accessible to Lobo fans, their support could help create momentum.
Prediction
The New Mexico Lobos will present a contrasting style of play to the Minnesota Gophers. Still, the Lobos’ physicality and late-season momentum will create a gap in the contest.
The Lobos have shown that they can control the tempo, establish the run, and ultimately engage the Gophers in a four-quarter battle – a style of game that has often caused problems for the Big Ten.
If New Mexico can control the running game and limit mistakes, Minnesota may find itself outside of its comfort zone. If that happens, the Lobos’ disciplined, pressuring defense should be the difference.
I expect a close game into the last quarter, and New Mexico will emerge victorious, a defining win for both the Lobos and the Mountain West Conference. It’s just been that kind of dream year for New Mexico.
Much of the Lobos’ success this year can be attributed to their coaching staff. It’s clear in how well-prepared the team is to compete against top-tier opponents like UCLA and throughout the Mountain West Conference.
I don’t expect that to change in this game. I expect the Lobos will secure a bowl victory in head coach Jason Ecks’ first year leading the program.
Prediction: New Mexico 31, Minnesota 27
