31-year-old Carson Franklin Kelly had a real nice year in 2025, registering 3.6 bWAR and a slash line of .249/.333/.428 with 17 home runs and 50 RBI in 421 plate appearances. Not too shabby. Yeah, he wasn’t Cal Raleigh, but then, neither is anybody else.
That was easily his best year in MLB, surpassing the 2.1 bWAR he turned in for the 2021 season and in fact nearly doubling his lifetime total. He also hit for the cycle in March.
Here’s a highlight reel from his Instagram page.
So we probably can’t
count on that kind of production, even in a contract year. Miguel Amaya is capable of turning in better numbers, as said in his profile, Amaya will likely be the nominal starting catcher by year’s end. If Kelly turns in a decent campaign, though, it’s entirely possible that the Cubs keep him around to be Amaya’s backup in 2027, assuming that Moises Ballesteros doesn’t suddenly attain competence behind the plate.
Northside Baseball’s Randy Holt had a few choice words about that in a recent article, zeroing in on what Kelly changed to attain the better numbers, and by his logic, it should be a repeatable process. “… it doesn’t seem at all unrealistic for him to do it again in 2026.”
His 777 putouts (fifth in the NL), .998 Fielding Percentage, and 34.3 CS percentage (second in the NL) don’t hurt, either.
And that’s important, given Amaya’s propensity for the freak injury. Kelly does have a $7.5 million mutual option for 2027, and odds are that the Cubs won’t be paying the $1.5 million buyout.
BBRef puts forth Barry Foote and George Mitterwald as comparative bats. Different times, though. Both were substandard in their day, though both had a good year or two, as Kelly has. It could be worse.
Something like 10 home runs, 35 RBI, and a .240 BA seem reasonable, with good defensive numbers and a slightly diminished workload. He should have around 40 percent of the playing time in 2026, with Amaya getting the lion’s share, especially later in the season.
If both play to their 2025 paces, and Amaya stays on the field, the Cubs are in good shape, catching-wise.
This series will continue on Monday.
