Last week ATS: 8-6 (2-4 National, 6-2 B1G)
Season ATS: 60-47 (21-17 National, 39-30 B1G)
Last week’s results weren’t amazing, but at the end of Saturday night all that mattered was our record was over .500 for the week.
Ohio State won and covered and Michigan lost so everything else was a bonus. Hopefully we can continue the solid start to the season as the intensity on the field only ramps up as we get deeper into the regular season.
National Games
UCF v. No. 18 Oklahoma State (-7.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
Imagine telling someone after Oklahoma State lost their season opener to Tulsa that the Cowboys
would be ranked in October. Oklahoma State responded by shocking Oregon the next week. Head coach Eric Morris and quarterback Drew Mestemaker have the Cowboys believing they could make this year’s College Football Playoff.
UCF played Houston tough last week, leading the Cougars 17-14 heading into the fourth quarter. The problem with the Knights is they don’t have enough offense to make waves in the Big 12. Not only does Scott Frost’s team have to go on the road for a second week in a row, they are going up against a Cowboys team that had a bye last week.
Last week Houston could have put UCF away early but the Cougars made a number of mistakes inside the red zone in the first half. Oklahoma State won’t give the Knights nearly as many chances this week.
Oklahoma State 34, UCF 17
No. 1 Texas (-8.5) v. Oklahoma – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Normally I’d say throw the records out the window in the Red River Rivalry. This doesn’t feel like one of those years when the underdog could pull an upset.
Oklahoma is a mess right now, and a bye week isn’t going to fix things. The only game where the Sooners have scored more than 14 points was when they beat UTEP in the season opener.
Texas also had last week off after surviving Tennessee in Knoxville. Despite being the top-ranked team in the country, the Longhorns aren’t exactly giving off the vibe that they are a serious threat to win the national title. While Texas has a win over Ohio State, that feels more like the Buckeyes handing the Longhorns the game in the second half.
Maybe the week off is what Oklahoma needed to fix all that ails them. I’m not confident that is the case. Plus, I’ve never thought much of Brent Venables as head coach.
This game plays out a lot like last year and Texas wins by double digits.
Texas 24, Oklahoma 10
No. 2 Georgia v. No. 6 Alabama (-1.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Alabama looks like the Alabama that we became used to while Nick Saban was head coach. Some of that could be because the schedule so far for the Crimson Tide has been soft, while a lot of success can be attributed to the play of quarterback Keelon Russell. The jury is still out on how good the Alabama defense is, though.
Georgia hasn’t even been close to being tested this season, winning all five of their games by at least 24 points. To go along with quarterback Gunner Stockton throwing 13 touchdown passes this season, four running backs have at least 100 yards rushing through five games. To compliment the offense, the defense of the Bulldogs looks nasty.
Even though Alabama may have more offensive firepower, I like Georgia more in this game. The Bulldogs are the more complete team and have better coaching. Plus, if the weather is rainy in Tuscaloosa with remnants of the hurricane effecting the game, give me the team that is better at running the football.
Georgia 28, Alabama 24
B1G Games
No. 7 Indiana (-7.5) v. Nebraska – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Despite being the defending national champions, we don’t know much about this year’s Indiana team. The only team the Hoosiers have played with a pulse this year has been Northwestern, who nearly had a stunning comeback in Bloomington a couple weeks ago.
The same could be said about Nebraska since the schedule for the Cornhuskers has been just as soft so far this season. If there was ever a game where Matt Rhule was going to make a statement and put his stamp on the program, this would be the time to do so.
Selfishly I want Indiana to win this game so Ohio State has a shot at halting the Hoosiers’ winning streak next week. Over the years Nebraska has lost so many close games and I think this will be another heartbreaking loss for the Cornhuskers.
Indiana 30, Nebraska 27
No. 21 UCLA v. No. 13 Oregon (-11.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
This is the best game of the week in the Big Ten. UCLA head coach Bob Chesney returns to Eugene after leading James Madison to the College Football Playoff and a first round matchup with the Ducks. The Bruins are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.
Oregon has some questions to answer heading into this game. Not only are we still not sure how good the Ducks are after they lost at Oklahoma State earlier this season, quarterback Dante Moore was injured last time out against USC after he took a vicious hit. If Moore is unable to play, the Ducks still have experience behind center with Dylan Raiola.
What makes UCLA intriguing in this matchup is how well they run the football. So far this season, the Bruins are averaging 7.0 yards per carry. While UCLA may not win, if they can control the clock then they should easily cover the spread.
Oregon 38, UCLA 31
Maryland v. No. 5 Ohio State (-34.5) – 4:15 p.m. ET – BTN
As long as Ohio State isn’t looking ahead to next week’s showdown with Indiana, the Buckeyes should be fine on Saturday. Ohio State has never lost to Maryland, winning all nine previous meetings.
Under Ryan Day, the Buckeyes have outscored the Terrapins 219-78.
What will be interesting to see is who scores more points on Saturday, Maryland or Jeremiah Smith. The sensational wide receiver is not only coming off back-to-back 200-yard receiving performances, he recorded six touchdowns in wins over Illinois and Iowa.
There always is danger in Ryan Day packing things in early and calling off the dogs, but Maryland is so dreadful that it’s hard to trust the Terrapins to cover. Over the last two games Maryland has given up 102 points. Plus, it feels like only a matter of time before head coach Mike Locksley is fired.
The Buckeyes should cruise.
Ohio State 54, Maryland 10
Rapid Fire Picks
National
Iowa State v. No. 8 BYU (-10.5) – Friday 10:15 p.m. ET – ESPN
BYU 27, Iowa State 14
Texas A&M v. No. 14 Missouri (-3.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Missouri 34, Texas A&M 24
North Carolina v. No. 25 Pitt (-3.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Pitt 28, North Carolina 20
No. 9 Ole Miss (-10.5) v. Vanderbilt – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Ole Miss 38, Vanderbilt 23
No. 10 LSU (-9.5) v. Kentucky – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
LSU 34, Kentucky 20
B1G
No. 20 Iowa v. Washington (-3.5) – Friday 9:00 p.m. ET – FOX or FS1
Iowa 24, Washington 17
Ball State v. Northwestern (-36.5) – 12:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Northwestern 41, Ball State 10
Illinois (-2.5) v. Michigan State – 3:30 p.m. ET – FS1
Illinois 23, Michigan State 13
No. 19 USC v. Penn State (-1.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
USC 31, Penn State 28
Minnesota (-2.5) v. Purdue – 8:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Minnesota 27, Purdue 20
