UFC Paris happens this weekend (Sat., Sept. 5, 2026) at Accor Arena in Paris, France and streaming live on Paramount+ (starting at 12 pM ET.). This could be called UFC Spite, given who is in the main event.
Salahdine Parnasse vs. Dan Hooker is that main event, with Parnasse being cherry picked out of the fledgling MVP MMA. Despite that, Parnasse is more than deserving as a shot to perform in the planet’s premier MMA outfit.
The co-main has Fight of the Night written all over it, with Fares Ziam vs.
Axel Sola. Rounding out the main card is Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev, Punahele Soriano vs. Daniil Donchenko, Morgan Charriere vs. Felipe Lima and Losene Keita vs. Muhammad Naimov.
The featured ‘Prelim’ is Mario Pinto vs. Ryan Spann. The undercard also has Oumar Sy vs. Modestas Bukauskas and Kurtis Campbell vs. Trevor Peek.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC Paris Main Card Money Line Odds
Salahdine Parnasse (-600) vs. Dan Hooker (+440)
Longtime and multiple KSW champ, at both Lightweight and Featherweight, Parnasse jumped ship last year to fight on the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano card on Netflix. MVP MMA gave him a tomato can on that night, whom he finished in the second round. MVP was likely hoping to keep a hold of Parnasse, so they could buoy their circus show cards with a legit fighter — someone who has been the consensus “best fighter outside UFC” for years. That’s exactly why UFC wanted him, though.
Parnasse’s opening challenge in UFC is Dan Hooker, a man who knows exactly why he’s here. He seems at peace at being a violent measuring stick for top contenders at Lightweight. Benoit Saint Denis and Arman Tsarukyan both passed that test recently. BSD pounded out Hooker in January (see it here) and Tsarukyan laid a whopping on him in November (see that here). Hooker’s last win was a split decision over Mateusz Gamrot in 2024. He’s currently 14-10 in UFC, albeit against one of the strongest schedules in the promotion.
This is the year of the underdog, as Song Yadong, Sean Strickland and Justin Gaethje, have shown us. But it’s hard to imagine putting Hooker along with those names. None of those guys were riding losing streaks, where they were getting finished, before springing their big upsets.
Hooker has been just far too hittable and stoppable, lately and in his career, for me to pick him as the next big upset winner. Hooker hangs his hat on his willingness to brawl and go out on his shield. But I worry about what all that means for him once UFC is done with him. His knowing only one way to fight was appealing when he was winning, but when he’s getting hurt all the time it becomes more sad than rad.
It should also be noted that, despite his youthful demeanour, Hooker is 36 years old. Parnasse is almost a decade younger than him at 28. I’m just struggling to see how Hooker avoids getting beat up and TKO’d in a couple of rounds.
Parnasse is a dynamic striker with lightning fast hands and a head kick that comes out of nowhere. He’s also extremely athletic and can get on your back in no time. Basically, speed kills when it comes to Parnasse.
So I fully accept those -600 odds on the UFC debutant.
It’s tough to find value when it comes to betting on him, though. Parnasse -13.5 is still -350. Parnasse by KO/TKO/DQ is only -145. The round total is set at 3.5 for this one and I think that’s way too high. So does everyone else, though. The under is only -260.
For value, I’m going to make my own parlay on this fight. I’m taking Parnasse (obviously), but I’ll pair that with under 2.5 rounds. That gets me to -130 and I think that’s the best I’m going to get.
Best bet: Parnasse & Under 2.5 (-130)
Fares Ziam (-155) vs. Axel Sola (+130)
Now, this is a strange booking.
Instead of putting two of the best French fighters in the division against foreign invaders on this card, UFC has decided to square them off together. Make it make sense, someone, please?
Ziam had been on a tear until his last fight, where he dropped a decision to Tom Nolan. Before that he TKO’d Nazim Sadykhov, took a lopsided decision over Mike Davis and obliterated Matt Frevola (see it here).
Sola is coming off a slick D’arce finish over Ismail Bonfim two months ago (see it here). Before that, in March, he lost what might be the Fight of the Year against Mason Jones. Sola made his debut a year ago, the last time UFC was in Paris, finishing Rhys McKee (see it here).
It feels like we’re going to get a good fight here and that it could be close, with both men having big moments. Ziam is the favorite, despite looking pretty average in his loss to Nolan, where he failed to get out of first gear. In that fight Ziam struggled to get off the fence and up off the ground against the bigger body. He also showed some bad fight IQ, going for a takedown in the third even though he needed a finish.
I like Sola in this match-up. He’s good at taking and maintaining control, either on the fence or on the ground. And I think he’s tough enough to weather Ziam on the feet. I have questions over whether Ziam is physically strong enough to weather Sola’s pressing and grinding.
And, let’s not forget, Sola is primarily a striker, too, so he might also find some success on the feet, too. Ultimately, he’s my pick for the grappling/strength advantage and because he can hold his own in the striking.
Best bet: Axel Sola moneyline (+130)
Michael Page (-185) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (+154)
Page has gone 4-1 in UFC since signing in 2024. His only loss was to Ian Machado Garry. The performance in that very close fight looks pretty good, given what Machado Garry has gone on to do. Page’s wins are over Kevin Holland, Shara Magomedov, Jared Cannonier and Sam Patterson. They have all been decisions, but Page has looked pretty good despite that.
Ruziboev went from being a truly massive Welterweight to a somewhat massive Middleweight last year — on the heels of a decision loss to Joaquin Buckley in his debut main event. At Middleweight Ruziboev has finished Eric McConico and Andrey Pulyaev and decisioned Dustin Stoltzfus. The submission over Pulyaev was especially brutal (see it here).
Initially, I thought Ruziboev would be an interesting puzzle for Page to try and solve, but the more I look at it the more I’m feeling like this will be another low action fight where Page does what he needs to do to score a decision. I thought Ruziboev’s size and aggression might pose some issues, but I was surprised to see Page has a pretty decent reach advantage (three inches).
Now I’m wondering if Page is going to be able to chew up Ruziboev as he comes forward, like he did to Cannonier. And I’m thinking Page might be able to frustrate Ruziboev and make him miss a lot like he did to Patterson (who went an epic 12-64 on his sig. strikes in their fight).
Ruziboev did do well against a cautious and long fighter last time out, but Pulyaev doesn’t have the ‘venom’ that Page does while striking off the back foot.
Best bet: Michael Page moneyline (-185)
Losene Keita (-360) vs. Muhammad Naimov (+285)
Former OKTAGON champ-champ Keita is best known for blowing his weight cut for a fight with Patricio Pitbull last year. Pitbull refused the fight after that and this spoiled what would have been Keita’s promotional debut. Keita had to wait six months before finally getting in the Octagon. He then lost a split decision to Nathaniel Wood, though I scored it for ‘Black Panther’.
Naimov was stopped by Mairon Santos in his last fight (see it here). Before that he ground out decisions over Bogdan Grad and Kaan Ofli.
I’m surprised Keita isn’t a massive favorite in this fight. I guess that loss, on paper, really took away a lot of his shine. Losing to Wood, a professional decision machine, isn’t a big mark against Keita for me, though. I still think he deserves some hype. He’s 16-2 with his only other loss being due to a foot injury. To amass that record with elevan fights in a shark tank like OKTAGON is a very big deal.
I think he’s going to look a lot better than Naimov on fight night. Naimov is well-rounded, in that he mixed up striking and wrestling, but he’s not especially good at either. His sig. striking accuracy is a woeful 40 percent. Keita’s is only 42 percent, but that’s from just one fight. Naimov’s number has been generated from five UFC bouts, including where he went 18-48 (37 percent) in the loss to Santos and 18-54 (33 percent) in the win over Grad.
I don’t see how he gets through Keita with that lack of firepower. Naimov’s last two losses were stoppages. I think he gets finished again here. I’ll use a same game parlay to take Keita and the under here.
Best bet: Losene Keita and Under 2.5 rounds (+105)
Morgan Charriere (+160) vs. Felipe Lima (-192)
Charriere blew the roof off the Accor Arena when he KO’d Gabriel Miranda in 2024. Things have been up-and-down for the former tw0-weight Cage Warriors champ since then, though. He scored a big TKO win over Nate Landwehr last summer, but he’s also lost to Nathaniel Wood and, most recently, Melquizael Costa. The Costa loss was due to a first round head kick KO (see it here).
Lima has been missing since June 2025. That’s when he gave Payton Talbott a very tough fight before losing a unanimous decision. That was his first loss in UFC following wins over Mile Johns and Muhammad Naimov (in his short notice promotional debut).
Charriere has been so inconsistent that it’s hard to get a good read on him at the moment. He has some pretty devastating striking, but he has a negative significant striking differential. And that’s a big red flag for me. Lima has one of those, too, but it’s marginal. Charriere’s is higher.
He and Lima are quite similar in both being very comfortable in both striking and grappling. I think Charriere is a bigger threat to finish on the feet, though, and Lima is a bigger threat to finish on the ground.
The circumstances around their last fights pose interesting questions. For Charriere that means how he’s going to react coming off a KO loss, the first in his career. For Lima, I’m talking about how he looks after a year and three month lay-off.
Charriere has lost a lot in his career (he’s 21-12-1) and he’s won after his last four losses. Lima has had lengthy spells on the sidelines before and won afterwards. After looking at how often Lima has taken a year between fights, I’m inclined to pick him here, especially since Charriere may have come back from losses before, but he’s never had to do that after being knocked out cold.
This fight is also at Featherweight, with Lima moving up. He’ll be a little smaller than Charriere, but that doesn’t worry me.
Best bet: Felipe Lima moneyline (-192)
Punahele Soriano (+205) vs. Daniil Donchenko (-250)
Well, this should be fun.
Soriano has looked great since moving down to Welterweight. His first fight in his new weight class was in June, 2024 — where he gave Miguel Baeza one of the most one-sided beatings I’ve seen in a long time. After that he Uros Medic’d Uros Medic, knocking him out in 31 seconds (see it here). Since then he’s taken convincing decisions over Nikolay Veretennikov and Ramiz Brahimaj.
Donchenko won TUF last year with a stylish TKO win over Rodrigo Sezinando (see it here). He then beat the heck out of Alex Morono for a unanimous decision. In June he tore apart Theodor Berggren for a second round finish (see it here).
Donchenko’s numbers are off the charts through three UFC contests. He has landed 8.07 sig. strikes a minute, with a 62 percent accuracy, while absorbing just 2.8 sig. strikes at a 70 percent defense. The official stat leading tables only consider fighters with five UFC fights. If they didn’t, those numbers would have Donchenko leading multiple categories in his division and the entire promotion. The big caveat is that, this is just through three matches and it’s been against fighters who aren’t cut out for the UFC (due to age in Morono’s case).
Soriano is a huge step up for Donchenko. And it does feel a tad early for him. Donchenko should probably have two or three more fights with total unknowns before taking on someone with a record like Soriano’s. Despite my reservations, Donchenko is a big favorite in this bout.
I really love what I’ve seen from him, but we don’t know if he can stop a takedown yet. Certainly not a takedown from someone as good as Soriano. Soriano’s wrestling has looked smothering lately. And he doesn’t just lay and pray. He’s very busy with his ground and pound. And the threat of his takedowns open up lots of opportunities on the feet, where he’s capable of knocking you out.
I think Donchenko’s aggressive style might open him up even more for the takedown and that Soriano will be too good too soon for the Ukrainian. I have a lot of high hopes for Donchenko, but I think this might be one of those beneficial losses, that helps him calibrate better moving forwards.
Best bet: Punahele Soriano moneyline (+205)
UFC Paris ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Mario Pinto (-278) vs. Ryan Spann (+225)
Pinto had a lot of hype after finishing Austen Lane and Jhonata Diniz last year. In March, though, he looked very average in grinding to a decision win over blown up Light Heavyweight Felipe Franco. Pinto is still 12-0, though, and is only 28-years-old.
Spann lost his Heavyweight debut, getting TKO’d by Waldo Cortes-Acosta last year (see it here). Since then, though, he’s finished both Lukasz Brzeski and Marcus Buchecha (see that one here).
I think there are danger signs for Pinto here. Spann fights with a Light Heavyweight’s motor; much like Franco did. And we’ve seen these former Light Heavyweights manage to out-pace and tire out these Heavyweights lately.
Pinto did show a lot of promise early on, but I’m not sure that he’s the next big thing at Heavyweight. I am going to pick him here, though. Spann just turned 35 and he’s got some durability issues (45 percent of pro losses are due to KO/TKO). I think Pinto’s power is probably going to be too much for him. I won’t be surprised if he gets the upset here, though (maybe with his ‘Spannotine’).
Best bet: Mario Pinto moneyline (-278)
Oumar Sy (-205) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (+170)
Sy has been a terrible favorite in UFC. He lost a decision to Alonzo Menifield last summer at a -715 favorite. Then, in March, he lost — by submission — to Ion Cutelaba as a -295 favorite (see it here). His UFC wins are over the terrible Brendson Ribeiro, Da Woon Jung and Tuco Tokkos (combined 7-14 in UFC).
Bukauskas beat short notice replacement Christian Edwards in May. Though, he didn’t look great, managing just a split decision. Before that he was sparked out by Nikita Krylov (see it here). The Krylov loss broke his four fight win streak. That streak included Paul Craig’s retirement fight, a robbery of a decision over Cutelaba and wins over the truly awful Raffael Cerqueira and Marcin Prachnio,
Sy might be the least intimidating 6’4” guy in the promotion. He’s incredibly passive on the feet despite his freakish 83 inch reach. He goes into fights hoping to drag guys down and use his size and lengthy limbs to get back control and chances for the choke.
Bukauskas has a lot of holes in his game, but he is aggressive and willing to try high risk moves (like flying knees). His lack of defense has led to a lot of his losses.
So who wins? The guy who barely engages or the guy who engages too much and leaves himself totally open? I think this is a really tough call to make.
I think Bukauskas will struggle to land his striking on Sy. He’s got a sub-par 43 percent accuracy on his sig. strikes and Sy has an above average 66 percent defense. But Sy might also struggle to get his takedowns here, with Bukauskas boasting an 82 percent takedown percent (and Sy just a 35 percent accuracy).
This all tells me we might be looking at a fight where not a lot happens. If I had to pick a winner, I would take a flyer on Bukauskas hoping he has more big moments in the fight and that he’s capable of stopping Sy from sucking up control time. I don’t have to pick a winner, though, so I’ll take the over.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-166)
Nathaniel Wood vs. Pavel Andrusca
Wood should be pissed off with a ‘Prelim’ booking on this card. He’s beaten both Losene Keita and Morgan Charriere and they’re on the main card at this event. Sandwiched between those wins is a victory over Jose Delgado — who is headlining the next Noche UFC card! A big reason why Wood is in this situation , though, is that he just can’t seem to get a finish. He is 11-3 in UFC but eight of those wins are by decision and his last stoppage a submission back in 2019.
He was supposed to fight Mairon Santos on this card, but he’s out due to injury. Replacing him is the newcomer Andrusca. Andrusca is 8-0 and has been plying his trade in UAE Warriors lately. All but one of his wins are by stoppage. He’s coming off two back-to-back KO wins.
Andrusca has a lot of power, but his striking appears very one-dimensional. He stalks forwards, flashing a straight left and trues comes over the top with a big right overhand. Wood should be too smart and technical to get caught by that.
There’s no odds out for this one yet, but I think Wood will earn yet another decision here.
Best bet: Nathaniel Wood moneyline (?)
Kurtis Campbell (-375) vs. Trevor Peek (+295)
Campbell won impressively on Contender Series but was KO’d in his proper debut, against Danny Silva (see it here) in March. Before joining UFC, Campbell was a champ in Full Contact Contender, which is a minor UK show. Campbell is only 24. He’s one of the kids coming out of Paddy Pimblett’s gym.
Peek hasn’t fought since September 2024. That’s when he dropped a decision to Yanal Ashmouz. That was his second loss in a row, having also lost a decision to Charlie Campbell. He’s now 2-3 in UFC.
I’m not buying Campbell as a prospect or a big favorite. He fights with his hands low and seems to ‘take pictures’ after throwing a punch. That all resulted in him getting lit up by Silva and being crushed by punches he didn’t see coming and didn’t have a hand up to block.
Peek also fights with his hands low. And with zero head movement. His Homer Simpson style paired with a long lay-off makes it very hard to pick him here, even if I’m not wild about Campbell. To spare myself having to pick either of these, I’ll take the under — assuming these two terrible defenses conspire for an early finish.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+140)
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Luis Felipe Dias (-102) vs. Matthieu Duclos (-118)
The 31-year-old Dias earned a quick TKO over Yi Sak Lee in his proper UFC debut in May (see it here). That came after he scored a second round submission on Contender Series last October. He’s 17-5 on his career, but hasn’t lost in four years.
Duclos was stopped by Marco Tulio on Contender Series in 2024. He’s won four straight since then, winning and defending the title in Hexagone. He’s 10-3 now, but — other than Tulio — there’s no well-known names on his record.
Dias is an absolute specimen. But he’ll be a lot smaller than Duclos in this fight. Duclos is five inches taller and has three inches of reach on him. Duclos hits hard, but fights kind of slow, though, in the tape I’ve seen. And he leaves himself pretty wide open. Dias is very fast and explosive. I’ll pick him against the newcomer.
Best bet: Luis Felipe Dias moneyline (-102)
Nora Cornolle (-125) vs. Klaudia Sygula (+105)
Cornolle had a horrible time of it in her last fight. She was well beaten by Joselyne Edwards, someone she beat early in her UFC career, getting her shoulder popped by a slam before getting submitted (see it here). She was left wailing in pain after that one. Before that she dropped a decision to Karol Rosa. She’s now 3-3 in her UFC career.
Sygula is now 2-1 in UFC after taking decisions over Priscila Cachoeira and Irina Alekseeva. Her loss was a TKO to Melissa Mullins (see it here), a fighter she beat on the European segment.
Cornolle has been rather terrible lately. I don’t think the hometown bump will save her here. This is just going to be kickboxing. Sygula has a slight reach advantage and she lands a whopping 7.27 sig. strikes a minute (Cornole lands just 2.73).
Best bet: Klaudia Sygula moneyline (+105)
Fabia Sintes (+114) vs. Michael Aljarouj (-135)
Neither of these guys have ever appeared on a UFC property prior to this.
Sintes hails from Spain and he’s 11-3 and a former champ in the WOW promotion. He’s 32-years-old.
Aljarouj is from France, though was born in Syria. He’s 29 and has a 13-3 1 NC record. He’s a former champion in the Hexagone promotion. One of his defenses came against former UFC fighter Pedro Nobre. He has a loss to Azat Maksum, a more recent UFC fighter, on his record, too.
Sintes is a grappler, though he has bad takedown defense. Aljarouj is striker, with a lightning quick jab. I’m much more impressed with what I’ve seen from him while watching tape. I think his straight punches will get the job done on Saturday.
Best bet: Michael Aljarouj moneyline (-135)
Delphine Benouaich (-148) vs. Sofia Montenegro (+124)
Benouaich had a long amateur career (14 bouts!) before turning pro in 2024. She’s gone 7-2 since then and most recently appeared in The Ultimate Fighter. Prior to TUF she fought in Ares FC, France’s best known MMA promotion.
Montenegro lost a split decision to Jeisla Chaves on Contender Series in September, but put on a hell of a show. Prior to that she was 6-1 with fights in and around Central and South America.
Montenegro is a violent lady. And she’ll have some size on Benouaich. I’ll take her here, and thus pick Contender Series over TUF.
Best bet: Sofia Montenegro moneyline (+124)
UFC Paris Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action …
Salahdine Parnasse by submission (+330)
This is me being desperate to find something juicy in the main event. And I’m not considering anything that includes Hooker winning. Parnasse has seven submission wins and Hooker has four submission losses. I can see Parnasse getting Hooker’s back and making him tap.
Two fight parlay: Klaudia Sygula and Sofia Montenegro (+359)
I’m fading the two French ladies on the card, who both happen to be slight favorites. Sygula is a better technical striker than Cornolle. And Montenegro is a more violent striker than Benouaich. Give me the Pole and the Argentine to play spoilers in Paris.
Soriano vs. Donchenko – First Minute Finish (+1100)
There’s fireworks on tap for this one. Donchenko is one of the most aggressive guys in the sport, but he might run into a haymaker from Soriano. Or Donchenko might get through with a Tekken combo. Either way, I think there’s a great chance this one is over in a flash.
