Hi! Sorry I’m late.
My name is Tanner McGrath, and I’m the America East beat writer here at Mid-Major Madness.
This preview was supposed to drop a few weeks ago, but personal issues pushed everything back. My apologies, but we learned a ton from the AmEast-Metro Challenge, which became a major focus of this preview.
No time to waste.
AmEast Lay of the Land
Here are my current AmEast Power Ratings.
But the numbers are always pretty noisy early in the season, so here’s how I would power rank the league after the first week of
play:
Tier 1:
- Vermont (1)
- UMass Lowell (2)
- Bryant (3)
Tier 2:
- New Hampshire (4)
- Albany (5)
- Binghamton (6)
- Maine (7)
Tier 3:
- NJIT (8)
- UMBC (9)
One major league-wide theme we should see this season: Better Basketball.
The America East was downright dreadful last season. It was probably the worst conference-wide performance I’ve seen from my beloved conference in two decades.
That said, I fully expect a major bounce-back season. I expect five teams to improve mightily (Bryant, New Hampshire, Albany, Binghamton, Maine) and two others to maintain (Vermont, Lowell). Really, I only expect regression from NJIT and UMBC (yes, two of the top three teams from last season, but it’s not last season anymore, champ).
Tano’s Pre-Season AmEast Awards
POY: Keegan Harvey, Bryant
DPOY: Killian Gribben, Maine
NCOY: Will Davies, Vermont
FOY: Tyler Jones, Albany
6MOY: Momo Nkugwa, Vermont
COY: John Becker, Vermont
First-Team All-Conference
- Jeremiah Quigley, Binghamton
- Will Davies, Vermont
- Victor Okojie, UMass Lowell
- Gus Yalden, Vermont
- Keegan Harvey, Bryant
Second-Team All-Conference
- Ollie Engen, Albany
- Tyler Bike, New Hampshire
- Devin Ceaser, UMBC
- Jayden Harris, UMass Lowell
- Demetrius Lilley, Binghamton
Third-Team All-Conference
- Tyler Jones, Albany
- David Bolden, NJIT
- Ace Flagg, Maine
- Victor Vanderstraeten, NJIT
- Riley Jacobs, UMBC
All-Defense
- Tyler Bike, New Hampshire
- David Bolden, NJIT
- Pedro Santos, Albany
- Ace Flagg, Maine
- Killian Gribben, Maine
All-Rookie
- Tyler Jones, Albany
- Aidan Able, UMBC
- Jasiah Cannady, UMass Lowell
- Victor Vanderstraeten, NJIT
- U-Mier Graham, Albany
Vermont Catamounts (1)
Starting Five
- Will Davies
- Darrel Yepdo
- John Broom
- Gus Yalden
- Noah Barnett
Rotation
- Momo Nkugwa
- Khalil Badru
- Daniil Glazkov
Roster Thoughts
The Gus Bus has returned for 2026-27.
Vermont’s offense will revolve around the big man in the middle. Yalden is one of the nation’s most prolific per-minute scorers (25 points per 40 minutes) because his offensive game is so varied. He’s basically unstoppable as a one-on-one back-to-the-basket scorer (1.01 post-up PPP), especially when he can back his man down and spin underneath to his right hand. However, you can’t double-team him because he has elite passing vision from the post (1.17 PPP when hitting cutters, over two assists per game). And forcing him out into space typically doesn’t work because he’s an awesome pick-and-pop 3-point shooter (1.02 PPP) who can put the ball on the floor a little (1.03 PPP when attacking the rim).
So far, Yalden’s lived up to the hype. He’s dropped 28/6/2, 12/5/0, and 17/5/3 through his first three games while shooting over 75% from the floor and over 40% from 3. He’s the perfect big man for this system, able to run John Becker’s four-out and five-out offenses with ease.
Meanwhile, point guard Will Davies is the real deal. I thought he’d be good, but this is beyond any reasonable expectation. He’s crafty off the bounce, breaking down defenses while scoring at the rim or throwing nuts passes. He’s been a far better scorer than I expected, and it’s also nice that he’s shot 6-for-16 (38%) from deep.
“He’s a better-shooting Robin Duncan,” Becker said in an interview with Mid-Major Madness. “He’s not quite as big or versatile, and I don’t want to compare him to one of my favorite players of all time, but he’s a 6-foot-4 high IQ player who can really pass.”
I’m shocked at the chemistry the duo has already built — that two-man game should terrorize the league. This play right here literally gave me chills:
This was to go up one over Iona with about 10 seconds left. Standing at a physical 6-foot-5, Davies is a perfect longer, stronger, Becker guard. Did you think this was going to be some routine DHO? Nope. In a total misdirection, Davies sets the reverse PNR screen for Yalden, who can drive to the rim with the best of them.
Darrel Yepdo and John Broom have filled out the rest of the backcourt fine.
I’m not sure how I feel about Yepdo’s performance to date, but I am relatively high on him as a long-term running mate for Davies. At Lowell, he slumped for half the season last year, but he started to turn it around late, averaging 12/4/3 on 43%/36%/76% shooting splits from February onward. While he’s smaller than the rest of his backcourt running mates (6-foot-flat), he has a wide frame and quick hands, and I’m hopeful that he’ll find his positional footing in Vermont’s compact man-to-man.
“Yepdo’s shooting splits will be the key,” Becker said. “But he brings tremendous leadership and work ethic. Between him and Davies, you have two Division-II players with a lot of success who can play both on and off the ball.”
If Yepdo can find his off-ball shooting stroke while taking some slight playmaking duties away from Davies, he’ll be a reliable starter.
Broom looks limited as a two-way player, but he’s an absolute menace on the boards. He has 27 rebounds through three games, including nine on the offensive end. He might be one of the nation’s best per-minute backcourt rebounders.
However, the most impactful non-Davies guard should be Momo Nkugwa. Whenever the starting five slumps, Nkugwa jolts the system. Across the first three games, Vermont’s offensive rating jumps over 10 points when he hits the court (120 on, 107 off). He was already one of the league’s better off-the-bounce rim finishers — he plays so well above the rim for his size — but he’s suddenly found a 3-point shot, hitting five of his nine 3-pointers while averaging 1.6 PPP as an off-ball sniper.
If defenders have to respect that shot, he’ll drive by everybody in league play. I don’t know how anyone will stay in front of his dribble.
“For Momo, the sky’s the limit,” Becker said. “If he can continue to shoot the ball well in games, he’s going to be a tough cover because of his ability to get to his left hand and finish above the rim. He also gives us another high-level defender and rebounder.”
I’m one of the world’s biggest Khalil Badru defenders, but I don’t think he’s quite found his footing on either end of the court (aside from his excellent offensive rebounding). He’s probably still well-suited as an athletic off-ball wing slasher, board-smasher and versatile defensive chess piece — he fits well in this defensive scheme with his length and close-out ability.
“Khalil has the potential to be Defensive Player of the Year in this conference,” Becker said. “His athleticism is through the roof. His motor is terrific. He’s still working on his shooting, but he’s really good in transition, and he’s relentless on the offensive glass. He can play the one through five, which gives us a lot of flexibility.”
Noah Barnett has been fine. He’ll be efficient as a low-usage offensive four alongside Yalden, and while his defensive metrics have been poor early in the season, those stats are noisy and should stabilize over time. The Catamounts need the vertical and lateral athleticism he brings on defense.
Team Thoughts
While the overall defensive metrics haven’t looked elite (108 Defensive Rating ranks 208th nationally, although first in the AmEast), I mostly like the outlook on that end of the court.
The added athleticism and length has popped on that end, particularly when closing out on catch-and-shoot jumpers. That effect is doubled when you consider the Cats are mostly dropping Yalden and Barnett, forcing everyone into middle-of-the-floor creation.
To that end, the individual defense has been pretty good.
Davies and Nkugwa are super pesky on that end of the floor, while Yepdo, Badru and Broom have upside. That whole backcourt is also massive, and in the frontcourt, Barnett’s defensive floor is very high.
Through the first three games, the only red flags on defense have been Kevon Vanderhorst going nuts for Iona (27 of the Gaels’ 56 points while the rest of the team shot 8-for-27 inside the arc), Declan Wucherpfennig going nuts for Fairfield (25 of the Stags’ 67 point while the rest of the team shot 15-for-47 from the field), and Quinnipiac shooting 11-for-23 from 3 (48%) mostly off-the-dribble (1.6 PPP).
Maybe Vermont’s dribble defense is just that bad and opposing guards will keep finding buckets, but I doubt it, especially if they’re being kept away from the rim and away from C&S opportunities. Otherwise put, the Cats should be good Rim-and-3 defense.
Even better news, I actually think Yalden is in much better shape than last season. He’s been more aggressive running the floor while playing over 30 minutes in two of the first three games. He even had two offensive rebounds in the final minute of regulation against Iona, something that never would’ve happened last season.
Essentially, if Yalden can keep moving like this, it raises the defensive ceiling. He and Davies look like a potentially excellent PNR drop duo.
Unfortunately, I think the offensive ceiling is lower than expected. Becker traded a lot of shooting for athleticism in the offseason, and I am worried there isn’t enough shooting or spacing to sustain a four-out, motion-based offense. The Davies-Nkugwa-Yalden trio is elite, but when Yalden hits the bench, the offense can really dry up — non-Yalden Catamounts are 15-for-53 from deep so far this year (28%), and non-trio Catamounts are 4-for-28 (14%).
That leads to a few other outcomes.
First, this squad has to hammer the offensive glass. Between Broom, Badru, Yalden, Barnett, and the rest of the added athletic guys, Vermont’s can, and likely will, make second-chance points a much bigger part of the offense — the Cats have posted a 38% offensive rebounding rate so far this season, which would be about 10 percentage points higher than any other post-2015 Becker-led team.
While that’s somewhat encouraging, I wonder if they’re giving up that advantage on the other end of the court, where the transition defense (1.23 PPP allowed, 39th percentile, albeit on low volume) and defensive rebounding (30% offensive rebounding rate allowed, 158th nationally) both look very un-Catamount like. Look no further than the game-winning bucket from the Iona game.
Finally, we haven’t seen any frontcourt depth behind Yalden and Barnett. Instead of giving minutes to Sublime Gbiegba, Marko Masic or Mario Brunetto, the Cats have relied entirely on sliding up Badru or Broom to the four when one of the two bigs hits the bench. Some of the key lineups in those situations so far:
- Nkugwa-Davies-Broom-Glazkov-Yalden: 19 possessions, +52 Net Rating
- Yepdo-Davies-Broom-Badru-Barnett: 9 possessions, +43 Net Rating
- Yepdo-Davies-Broom-Badru-Yalden: 6 possessions, -81 Net Rating
Not much we can take away there, but lots to think about.
Ultimately, here’s the deal: The AmEast Media Conglomerate (which is really like a half-dozen other guys and me) has crowned the Catamounts offseason champs in back-to-back seasons, and they weren’t good enough to get over the hump in either season. Two seasons ago, they couldn’t score enough. Last year, they couldn’t get enough stops.
This season, more than a few issues could trip the Cats up, not to mention the rest of the league is much improved. What’s going to change this season? Can Becker find the mountaintop again?
TLDR: I think the defensive upside is very high, but I worry a bit about shooting and spacing on offense. I’m curious whether the Cats will keep bashing the offensive glass to make up for the shot-making, and how much that could affect transition defense and overall defensive rebounding. Are there any other potential frontcourt depth pieces? Or will they continue sliding Badru and Broom up to the four in lengthy four-guard lineups? And, most importantly, can they hold off the rest of the pack biting at their heels?
UMass Lowell River Hawks (2)
Starting Five
- Christian Jones
- Jakai Newton
- Isaiah Walter
- Jayden Harris
- Victor Okojie
Rotation
- Jasiah Cannady
- Elhadji Diallo
Roster Thoughts
The offense is as advertised. The roster has no shortage of playmakers and scorers, and Pat Duquette has once again found the guys who will contribute heavily in his up-tempo, rim-dominant, flex-adjacent offense.
“That’s always been the centerpiece of our offense,” Duquette told Mid-Major Madness in an interview. “The incoming guys buy in quickly when they know we’re going to play fast and score a lot of points.”
Victor Okojie and Jayden Harris have led the way. Both have been obliterating the rim and dominating the boards, while Harris’ smooth shooting stroke has been a very nice touch to an already dangerous frontcourt.
I expected this from Okojie. He’s a versatile, cerebral, athletic forward who’s capable on the ball (scoring or passing) and dependable as a multi-positional defender. He’ll remain an important offensive hub on the interior, scoring in the posting, cutting, second-chance and transition departments while even adding a few mid-range buckets.
I sort of expected this from Harris. He profiled as a low-usage connecting wing who can hit some open 3s, crash the offensive glass and wreak havoc in transition. He’s done all of that, but he’s done it at an elite level while ranking second on the team in usage. He literally broke the GalloZone in the win against Merrimack, dropping 26/11/2 on 10-for-21 (5-for-11) shooting while adding two blocks.
I thought Jakai Newton was the X-factor for this team because of his athleticism, and he’s showcased plenty of that during Lowell’s undefeated start, but not in the ways I thought. Instead of ripping through defenses as an on-ball rim-finisher, he’s slotted into Duquette’s offense by obliterating the boards, particularly on offense.
I’m curious to see if Newton adds more of an on-ball component to his game in the coming months, but it might not matter if Christian Jones keeps being an effective table-setter. Jones has 11 assists and just one turnover through two D-I games. He’s absolutely ripped apart defenses in the slash-and-kick game (1.27 PPP, 74th percentile), mostly hitting Isaiah Walter in those sets, who has been a more-than-capable two-way wing.
It looks like Duquette will run a very tight ship this year, as he’s basically running a seven-man rotation while ranking dead last nationally in bench minutes (17%). Jasiah Cannady and Elhadji Diallo have been the first duo off the pine, and we still haven’t seen what these top-rated recruits can do at scale.
I figure Diallo will get more minutes, especially now that Austin Green is ineligible. He theoretically fits perfectly on this squad as an above-the-rim cutter, roller, poster and offensive rebounder who can finish through contact.
I really want Cannady to steal Jones’ spot, as the frosh is a pure playmaker with a wicked handle. But time will tell.
Team Thoughts
I really want Cannady to steal Jones’ spot because I’m not a big fan of Jones. That said, the numbers don’t lie: So far, he’s been an awesome scorer and playmaker off the dribble while never turning it over.
That final point is huge. The perennially turnover-prone River Hawks went into Merrimack last week and only turned it over 10 times against the vaunted GalloZone. Against Marist’s soft drop coverage, the Hawks turned it over just six times. This was all unfathomable just a few weeks ago, yet it happened right in front of our eyes.
If Lowell can execute its up-tempo, rim-dominant offense without turning the ball over, the ceiling rises immensely, especially because the Hawks could become a shot-volume monster with their ability to smash the offensive glass and heat up the ball. Across their two Division-I games, the River Hawks posted a +7 rebounding differential, a -9 turnover differential, a +13 field-goal attempt differential, and an +8 free-throw attempt differential.
Lowell’s athleticism pops off the page. The team’s bevy of versatile scoring options pops off the page. The River Hawk offense can really shred.
I’m not sold on the defense.
Through this 3-0 start, Lowell opponents have shot 53% from the free-throw line and 17% from deep. Underneath that lucky shooting variance, the Hawks allowed Merrimack and Marist to combine for 76 paint points while shooting nearly 70% on close 2s.
Similar to the past three seasons, the dribble defense is atrocious, so the River Hawks allow paint touches in droves. Typically, the rim defense isn’t bad because they play drop and funnel toward the middle of the floor. However, despite all that athleticism, they’ve blocked just two shots this season.
What does this all mean? Well, when asked about his team’s defensive woes over the past few seasons, Duquette responded:
“I don’t know what the numbers are, and I don’t pay much attention to them. Every coach emphasizes defense, and anybody who tells you differently is crazy. You do the best you can with the guys you have, but you’re only coaching them for nine months, and it’s not like we have this super strong defensive culture in place.”
Duquette won’t change for anyone. He’s not one of those malleable coaches who adapt to their personnel. Instead, he’s really good at finding guys who can thrive in his system, getting them to buy in, and squeezing the best possible performance out of them.
Typically, that gives the River Hawks a very high offensive floor, but they always seem to pair that with a totally apathetic defense. So, I’m expecting another typical River Hawk team, though with a higher ceiling if they keep taking care of the rock.
TLDR: Lowell will play fast, shred in transition, dominate the rim, score in bunches, and have zero interest in playing defense. That usually means about 10 conference wins, but I could see them stealing a few more if they keep taking care of the rock and dominate the shot-volume battle.
Bryant Bulldogs (3)
Starting Five
- Eric Chatfield
- Ty Tabales
- Onyx Nnani
- Andre Pasha
- Keegan Harvey
Rotation
- Elijah Hayeems
- Elijah Crispin
- Roi Behar
- Connor Lyons
- Duane Thompson
Roster Thoughts
I was hard on Coach Jamion Christian last season. I often wondered why the administration hired him instead of promoting someone from within.
However, I realize I may have been too hard on him. He had to finish his contract in Italy before he could fully dive into building his collegiate roster. Instead of picking portal additions, Christian had to lean on frosh recruits, with the Bulldogs ranking 358th nationally in Division-I experience.
“I was commuting between Italy and Smithfield while we were trying to build a team,” Christian said in an interview with Mid-Major Madness. “That put us in a tough spot where we didn’t have a lot of experience on the roster, so we decided to get some talented young guys and see if we could get hot at the right time.”
Well, Christian and Co. had a full offseason to build a roster their way, which, per Christian, consists of four types of players:
- Combination Forwards
- CEOs
- Spies
- Snipers
It starts in the frontcourt, where Bryant has arguably the most versatile, highest-upside collection of players in the low-major landscape.
“I love guys at the four and five who we call Combination Forwards,” Christian said. “These guys can post up, shoot and move the ball. I want to be able to throw the ball into the post and settle our team, and I expect these guys to conduct the offense by making sure the ball moves from one place to another, and then scoring when they have the opportunity to finish.”
This group centers mostly on Keegan Harvey and Andre Pasha.
Harvey has become my POY pick. After shredding down the stretch last season, he’s picked up where he left off, averaging 15/8 while shooting 60% from inside the arc and 39% from beyond. He’s also blocked six shots through three games.
He was impossibly good against Siena (20 points, 12 rebounds, two assists, two blocks). He was doubled and trapped at every opportunity, but he either scored (once over a triple team) or passed effectively (to other frontcourt cutters) on almost every possession. He also hit several massive triples in the second half.
There simply aren’t enough good things I can say about Harvey. He’s fully living up to his potential as a massive forward who can score, pass and shoot at all three levels while racking up blocks and rebounds because of his frame. He gives the Bulldogs a clear offensive identity, playing entirely inside-out through him with plenty of high-low, pick-and-pop, and post-up actions. Through three games, Bryant’s net rating is a full 30 points higher when he’s on the court (-2 on, -32 off).
“He has a very unique skill set with his shooting ability and ball-handling, but he hadn’t played a lot,” Christian said of his superstar big man. “It was more about when it was going to happen.”
I expected Pasha to be more of a finesse forward who would play more away from the basket, but I thought he’s actually been real smooth in pure post-up sets around the rim. He’s 8-for-12 from inside the paint so far this season, posting a rock-solid 12/10/2 against Farifield.
That said, Pasha can still mix and match away from the bucket, squaring up in isolation and shooting off the bounce or the catch.
“We feel we have a really good collection of frontcourt players,” Christian said. “If the big is below you, they can pop out and make that shot at a 35% or 36% clip. If the big has to show out because [Eric] Chatfield can turn the corner, our guys can affect the game on the roll. If the help guy comes over, they can make the next pass.”
The Bulldogs need Eric Chatfield back quickly because the Ty Tabales experience is in full effect. Over three games, Tabales has been mostly a net positive with a 30% assist rate and solid perimeter defense. He’s also posted a 32% turnover rate, is 4-for-14 from deep (29%), and has been useless as a ball-screen orchestrator (.7 PPP).
Chatfield is supposed to take Tabales off the ball. He didn’t get to showcase his skills at Georgia Tech, but he was a phenomenal high school prospect with his wizardry off the bounce as both a scorer and passer. He’s quick and shifty with great vision — he could be deadly in ball screens. Based on pedigree alone, he could be one of the best scorers, or players, in the conference.
Our guy Matthew Winick wrote that Chatfield’s best AmEast comp is Amir Lindsey, which struck a chord with me due to their similar frames.
“I think in the worst-case scenario, he has an Amir Lindsey type of year,” Christian said, surprisingly. “Lindsey had an incredible year, but Chatfield is probably a Player of the Year candidate. He’s really going to score the ball, assist it, and he’s a phenomenal on-ball defender.”
Chatfield should be the lead CEO this season, but I have been relatively impressed with freshman Elijah Hayeems as a steady off-the-pine ball-handler — at least I was in the Siena game before he went -17 in the next two games behind four points on 2-for-10 shooting and three turnovers to only one assist.
That said, I actually think Bryant’s depth could be a strength this season. Roi Behar and Connor Lyons should be impactful 3-and-D guys off the bench, while Hayeems could become better with more experience in a lower-usage role after Chatfield returns. Duane Thompson has had his moments as a frontcourt depth piece this season, although they’ve mostly come on the offensive end.
It’s worth mentioning that all four of those guys are freshmen and could improve significantly by February.
X-Factor Onyx Nnani — the 6-foot-9 wing who moves and dribbles like a guard — has had an interesting start to his Bryant career. On the one hand, he’s been a high-usage Spy who clearly can let it rip off the bounce or the catch from all three levels while obliterating the offensive boards with his length (three per game this season), drawing plenty of contact on drives (17 FTAs so far) and feasting in transition. On the other hand, Nnani has yet to make a single shot that hasn’t come off an offensive rebound (8-for-17 inside the arc, 2-for-13 outside the arc).
Team Thoughts
That final point has been the story of Bryant’s season so far.
The home win over Siena was excellent. The Saints are a very good Metro team led by a star guard in Pace Prosser, and Christian did an awesome job making key second-half adjustments that slowed the pace and mucked up the game, and that tilted the scales toward the ’Dogs.
Across the next two games, Bryant shot 16-for-66 from deep (24%), while opponents shot 13-for-24 (54%) from beyond the arc. At the same time, the Bulldogs are shooting over 53% from inside the arc (171st nationally) while holding opponents to 42% shooting in that area (59th nationally).
It’s really hard to win games when shooting variance is tilted that hard against you, and the 2-point shooting numbers are likely stickier in the long run.
Ultimately, that’s why I remain high on the Bulldogs, who I still believe have the highest ceiling in the conference. I adore the roster. The frontcourt of Nnani/Pasha/Harvey has unlimited offensive versatility, as all three can dribble, pass, shoot and post up — plus, they’re all massive. Chatfield could be one of the best point guards in this league based on pedigree alone.
That said, there are still plenty of potential landmines.
The biggest one is turnovers. The Bulldogs were a horrific ball-handling team last year, and they still are, especially because Harvey can’t hang on to the rock to save his life (12 turnovers in three games as a big man is really bad).
The second one is shot diet. I need to see better execution of the offense, which should be post-heavy with plenty of off-ball, motion-based concepts around the perimeter.
If they shoot better from 3, that scheme will start to open up. However, it’s hard to imagine an interior-based offense centered around two inside-out post players posting a ridiculous 56% 3-point attempt rate (currently 16th nationally). The Bulldogs need more looks inside, as they’re shooting over 60% on close 2s but rank 300th nationally in close 2-point attempt rate (31%).
That said, Chatfield could solve both of those issues above.
It feels like Harvey gets trapped in the post at every opportunity because nobody is really respecting the Tabales-Hayeems-Nnani perimeter combination as playmakers or shooters, which forces more inside-out triples while also emphasizing Harvey’s turnover issues. Chatfield can attack the rim or pull up off the bounce, which should take some pressure off the bigs down low. I also bet he’ll be a far better ball-handler than Tabales or Hayeems, which will again take Tabales off the ball, where he might finally get better open C&S looks from 3.
So, yeah. He needs to get healthy ASAP.
Defensively, the Bulldogs look very slow. This is one of the nation’s biggest rosters, but those big bodies don’t move well laterally. They can’t stay in front of the dribble, so they try to cover that up by selling out for steals, or they just foul once they’re beat (which explains both their high defensive steal rate and high free-throw allowed rate).
That said, this defensive scheme reminds me a lot of the Phil Martelli Jr.-led Bulldogs.
No, I am not saying they will be as effective. However, like PMJ’s Bulldogs, these guys will rim-funnel and then use their size and verticality to get blocks. They blocked five shots against Siena, five against Quinnipiac, and then eight against Fairfield. At the same time, those three teams combined to shoot 28-for-65 on driving/non-driving layups (43%).
So far, it looks like Christian is staying conservative with Pasha by dropping him, while letting Harvey roam a little more by hedging when he’s comfortable. I don’t know how I feel about it all, but Bryant’s defense is a fascinating case study, and I am partial to thinking it will be effective once 3-point variance starts to find its level.
Essentially, the Bulldogs could dominate the rim on both ends. But time will tell.
TLDR: I still adore this roster and think it has the highest ceiling in the conference. The 2-1 start is pretty murky given the stark 3-point variance, even though the Bulldogs have been otherwise rim-dominant. That said, turnovers, perimeter playmaking, perimeter shooting, and slow-footed dribble defense are issues to monitor closely. They also need Chatfield back ASAP to fix some of these issues, which have already popped up plenty throughout the first week.
New Hampshire Wildcats (4)
Starting Five
- Tyler Bike
- Myles Blackley
- Drew McKenna
- John Squire
- Ryan Zan
Rotation
- Drew McKenna
- Erik Olvier-Bush
- Giannos Xanthopoulos
Roster Thoughts
OK, I’m ready to plant my flag.
The New Hampshire Wildcats are a good basketball team.
Or, at a minimum, they have a great roster. I really like the team Nathan Davis built in the offseason.
Tyler Bike is an All-Conference candidate at point guard. He’s barely taller than me at 5-foot-11, but he’s an unbelievable perimeter defender. He is a pest on the ball and an elite PNR POA defender. Last season, he posted a 2.0 DRAPM (90th percentile), and the team’s defensive rating dropped nearly 12 points with him on the court (108.2) compared to off the court (119.8).
“He’s little, but he doesn’t play that way,” Davis said in an interview with Mid-Major Madness. “He’ll throw his body in there. He’ll fight you. He’ll scratch and claw for every inch. That’s what he’s made of.”
On the other end, he’s a knockdown shooter, and he’s already shown improved playmaking with 12 assists through his first three games.
Even better, Davis has found two excellent running mates for him in Myles Blackley and Josiah Coleman.
I adore Blackley, who is technically a returner, even if he barely played last season. He’s athletic, very active on defense (five blocks and a steal through three games), and an excellent shooter (so far) who can either catch-and-shoot or create his own shot.
“I think people are really going to like Coleman,” Davis said. “He’s a really strong and physical combo guard with the ability to be an excellent defensive player. He’s strong enough to play in the paint, and while he’s not a knockdown shooter, he’s capable of making 3s when he takes the right ones.”
So far, he’s right. Coleman had his coming-out party with a 15-point performance against Rider, mostly because he is an absolute bully who lovingly accepts contact and earns plenty of trips to the charity stripe in the process. So far, he’s attempted 17 free throws across 80 minutes, good for a 121.4% free-throw attempt rate.
You want to know what Wildcat basketball is all about? This right here is what it’s all about:
Those three guys make up a high-upside backcourt that can score via the drive-and-kick game in the half-court while playing elite perimeter defense on the other end.
In the preseason, I actually liked the frontcourt more than the backcourt. I liked the returning duo of John Squire and Giannos Xanthopoulos, the high-floor addition of Erik Oliver-Bush, and the high-upside addition of Drew McKenna.
Squire is a dependable, big-bodied, rim-tied forward who makes his 2s (65% last season) and rebounds pretty well (six per game last season). Through three games, he’s been a steady force in the rotation, mostly making himself useful on the boards (seven per game).
I need more Giannos minutes. I’ve really enjoyed them. He’s becoming a rather adept post player, both scoring (.95 PPP) and passing (1.15 PPP), and I appreciate him as a drop defender who can deter the rim with his 6-foot-10 frame. He won’t get many minutes, but I will cherish each and every one — apparently, so will the team’s on-off rating.
Oliver-Bush is a high-level wing who can parlay elite athleticism into elite defense.
However, surprisingly, he hasn’t been a total zero on the other end, putting up 15 points against Sacred Heart on 6-for-9 shooting — he’s also been a monster getting downhill in transition (1.6 PPP).
McKenna, the X-Factor, has largely been a bust. He’s proven himself a very good passer (24% assist rate), and he’s been getting very involved in the offense as the team leader in usage rate (32%) — Davis has even given him limited run at point. That said, he’s turned the ball over a whopping 40% of the time, including seven against Rider. He’s been woefully inefficient shooting from the field, and he hasn’t grabbed a single offensive rebound (though he makes up for it by gobbling up defensive boards). But given he’s still getting so much opportunity, one has to think Coach Davis sees something in him, and I think his performance can only go up from here.
“He’s athletic and physical, so he can guard multiple positions at a high level,” Davis said of his transfer wing. “He’s great around the basket, and we have to get him opportunities to make plays in the paint.”
However, New Hampshire’s best frontcourt player might be Ryan Zan. The unheralded Fairfield transfer has started all three games at center, alongside Squire at the four, and has absolutely shredded opponents as a spot-up stretch five who will either shoot over you or drive by you — he did both against Rider in this little stretch:
Team Thoughts
The Wildcats are unbelievably talented, but my goodness, they are a disorganized mess. They have basically white-knuckled their way to a 2-1 record.
They often look lost on defense, but their athleticism often covers up all their mistakes. For example, what in the world is this ball-screen defense from Oliver-Bush and Kaleb Myers?
Good thing Oliver-Bush is a monster who can burst through any ball screen and make up that lost space in a split second.
If they could just play a little more cohesively on that end — I’d have to study them more, but I think maybe they should switch everything or run some kind of aggressive trappy zone — this could be a downright elite defense.
The personnel is outstanding. Bike is a superstar POA defender. Coleman and Blackley have the athletic tools to be similarly good on that end. Oliver-Bush and McKenna are excellent wing defenders. I trust Squire/Zan/Xanthopoulos to be reliable rim deterrents. All of these guys are gritty, physical, athletic, switchable, and downright good defenders.
The Wildcats rank 25th nationally in 2-point defense through three games, holding Sacred Heart, Rider, and Brown each to 26 paint points on under 40% shooting. They have snuck up to second in my AmEast defensive power ratings. Imagine if they could communicate instead of just scrambling?
Offensively, it’s a similarly disorganized mess. I still don’t understand why Davis can’t get his teams to run, especially this one. Regardless, I’ve seen a little too much drive-and-kick, your-turn, my-turn offense — Coleman is great, but his style is not something you should build an offense around.
That said, they’ve run a few actions that give me hope for a brighter future.
My favorite plays have been high-low or cutting actions between the big men. Below is a perfect example of why I like the Giannos minutes so much — He essentially drew a triple team and still found the cutting Zan for the easy bucket.
Squire and Zan have run a few solid high-low actions together, although I can’t find the videos. The Wildcats have scored 1.13 PPP in high-low actions (67th percentile) and 1.43 PPP when hitting cutters (94th percentile).
Another great action was the DHO below between Zan and Blackley — this one put Jaylen Robinson in a tizzy:
If I were New Hampshire’s OC, I think I’d run way more inside-out actions through the frontcourt to find driving lanes or open jumpers for guys like Bike, Blackley, Coleman, Oliver-Bush, et cetera. Or, maybe I’d just tell McKenna to get it together.
Ultimately, I don’t know what the future of the Wildcat offense or defense will look like. All I know is that they are so damn close. A few tweaks here or there could catapult this uber-talented roster into AmEast contention.
TLDR: I love this roster. New Hampshire could be an elite defense. So far, the Wildcats look vastly disorganized. But if they can build just a little more cohesion, the league should watch out. And then imagine if McKenna stops playing like garbage?
Albany Great Danes (5)
Starting Five
- Ollie Engen
- Tyler Jones
- Zach Matulu
- Abdoulaye Fall
- U-Mier Graham
Rotation
- Pedro Santos
- Papa Kounta
- Erwann Bussing
- Kean Webb
Roster Thoughts
As a Canadian (by marriage), I’m always proud when a U-Sports transfer heads South of the border and shows he belongs. Xavier Spencer did that for UMass Lowell last season, and Ollie Engen is doing the same for Albany this season.
Engen is going to absolutely stuff the stat sheet this season. He’s averaging 15/6/3 across 38 minutes per game through the first week. Standing 6-foot-5, he’s massive for a lead guard, using that length to smash the boards, see over the defense (33% assist rate), earn plenty of trips to the charity stripe, and play pretty good dribble defense.
Coach Dwayne Killings talked up freshman guard Tyler Jones in our interview, but I mostly thought it was CoachSpeak. Boy, was I wrong. Jones leads the team in scoring (18 PPG), mostly by ruthlessly attacking the rim and embracing contact, leading to a whopping nine free-throw attempts per game.
This backcourt is just big, strong and physical. Let’s throw in top returner Zach Matulu, an absolutely terrific rebounder and defender at the three, who’s currently averaging four offensive and defensive boards per game. Or top returner Abdoulaye Fall, another terrific defender and rebounder with his wiry 6-foot-8 frame. On top of that, 6-foot-6 Papa Kounta will get some run in the backcourt, although you can really slide him one-through-four.
The frontcourt rotations are a little more fuzzy, mostly because Pedro Santos has been kept on the sidelines due to an injury. Freshman U-Mier Graham has taken advantage of the frontcourt opportunity and is starting to assert himself as the starting five. He’s efficient on the inside as a low-usage cutter (1.17 PPP) and roller (1.47 PPP). He’ll also grab his fair share of offensive rebounds, block a few shots, and even stretch the floor a tad.
Graham stepping up is massive for Albany, because the Danes’ biggest roster question entering the season was at center. I was worried about a downgrade in rim protection post-Okechukwu Okeke, but not so much anymore.
Team Thoughts
Killings has really dialed up the ball pressure over the past few seasons, even developing an amoeba matchup zone a la Rick Pitino. It’s really helped the Danes stay in front of the dribble, and behind plenty of turnovers and offensive rebounds on the other end, they typically hold a shot-volume advantage in most games.
This roster, featuring length, athleticism and switchability at basically every spot, should be deadly in that system. Through two games, five Danes are averaging at least one steal per game, while Matulu and Graham have each pieced together a few blocks.
Santos’ return could make that even scarier, given he ranked fifth nationally in steal rate last season with UT Martin (5%). He’s the perfect frontcourt addition to a disruptive, ball-pressure defense, and should wreak havoc as a free safety in Albany’s zone looks.
“We wanted to be more switchable, with more length and more size, especially in the backcourt,” Killings said in an interview with Mid-Major Madness. “I think we can be very disruptive.”
Throw in Graham’s rim protection, and I’m absolutely ecstatic about this defense at every spot.
On the other hand, I still worry the half-court offense will be clunky and ugly. Killings-led teams often have issues with shot diet, turnovers, and decision-making in a read-and-react system. Also, I’m still worried there’s not enough shot-making on this team — I don’t think the Danes will shoot 23% from deep for the rest of the season, but it’s a concerning start — which won’t only bog down the half-court offense more.
However, I expect they’ll force turnovers, while the backcourt and wings can produce coast-to-coast off the defensive glass. They should use that to fuel a transition-heavy offense.
So far, Engen and Jones have been absolutely ruthless in transition — Engen is a great passer in the open court, while Jones can get downhill to the rim in a hurry. Matulu posted 1.40 PPP in transition last season, and I believe Fall can match it. Santos is a limited half-court player, but he’s athletic and can turn steals into transition buckets — it’s where he’s at his best on that end.
I think the Danes need to spend as much time as possible turning ball pressure and rebounding into transition offense, especially when they play with smaller four-guard lineups (which Killings says is an expectation this season). They need to be uber-aggressive in passing lanes and very active on the defensive boards. I also think this athletic roster could be monsters on the offensive glass, which Killings likes to crash. If they execute on all these fronts, they could be the shot-volume kings of this league.
Of course, there’s the minor issue that this hasn’t fully materialized yet.
On offense, the Danes got out and run against Manhattan, managing 1.28 transition PPP across 17 possessions in a win. They followed that up by getting entirely bogged down in a half-court game against Merrimack, scoring just seven fast-break points and then turning the ball over 21 times.
On defense, the picture isn’t so black-and-white. The Danes forced 14 turnovers against Manhattan, but they also sank back into their old ways by allowing 36 paint points. But while they couldn’t get their transition-based attack going against Merrimack, forcing only 10 turnovers, they stepped up by allowing just 22 paint points.
Ultimately, I think it once again all comes down to Killings.
He puts together great rosters every season, and then consistently underperforms — Albany has underperformed its KenPom pre-season rank in four of five seasons since Killings took the helm.
Preparation and in-game coaching are always issues — look no further than when Killings matches up with the ever-elite Chris Markwood, as the Black Bears are 7-1 in those matchups (both started at their respective schools in 2022). It’s not surprising at all that those same issues popped up against the GalloZone.
Underneath Killings, the Danes are often less than the sum of their parts, and I worry the same thing will happen this season.
TLDR: The Danes could be an elite defense behind a great combination of size, athleticism and switchability. I worry about the half-court offense, but they could be deadly in transition by using turnovers and defensive rebounds to create offense. Still, Killings often underperforms with exciting rosters, and I worry that will happen again this season.
Maine Black Bears (6)
Starting Five
- Darius Lopes
- DeAndre Williams
- Ace Flagg
- Villiam Garcia Adsten
- Killian Gribben
Rotation
- Hudson Franz
- Caleb Crawford
- Yanis Bamba
- Wyatt Triestman
- Wesley Waddles
- Ayden Evans
Roster Thoughts
I am totally at a loss for Maine’s rotations through the first week of play.
Lopes has played only 15 minutes a night, as Maine keeps him on a short leash after his injury. In those limited minutes, he’s 3-for-15 from the field with a higher turnover rate (16%) than assist rate (15%).
When he’s on the court, Lopes ranks second on the team in usage rate (24%). However, with him on the pine so often, more of the playmaking responsibility has fallen on DeAndre Williams and Villiam Garcia Adsten.
I expected this from Williams. I like how his rim finishing and mid-range game fit in Chris Markwood’s ball-screen motion. He hasn’t been all that efficient (35% from 2, 31% from 3), but he’s putting up nearly 10 points per game while averaging around 1.3 PPP as a PNR passer.
Adsten, at least for me, has come entirely out of left field. I expected him to be a frontcourt depth piece, but he’s leading the team in usage (26%), assist rate (20%) and scoring (11 PPG). For what it’s worth, I have really liked his minutes, and he’s scored over 1.3 PPP as a roller so far this year en route to a team-leading 16 paint points. I just never expected it.
Also squarely in the backcourt mix is Hudson Franz, who has provided some spark as an attack-and-kick guard.
All of these guys have pushed Caleb Crawford way down the totem pole, where he is also confoundingly playing just 17 minutes per game, yet he leads the team in assists.
And don’t forget about Yanis Bamba, who has been the go-to guy at the three despite playing just 18 minutes off the bench in all three games. Flagg typically starts at the three but often slides to the four, and Maine has found a few minutes here and there for Wyatt Triestman and Wesley Waddles.
Flagg and Gribben have been mainstays, and they’re the team’s two most efficient offensive weapons — although it’s been Gribben inside the arc and Flagg outside the arc, both on low volume. Maine has also found some minutes for Ayden Evans at the five, who has offered seven points per game and a few blocks.
All in all, it looks like Markwood is playing with a nine-man rotation while not committing to anyone, with all of them playing more than 10 and fewer than 30 minutes per night.
Markwood does this every year, toying with things early in the season to see what works. But this feels a little crazier than normal. The on-off numbers show a pretty stark difference between one rotational group and another, but those stats can be noisy early on.
Team Thoughts
The offense has been pretty inefficient so far, but I do think there’s some upside.
Adsten, Flagg and Gribben offer a lot of frontcourt versatility. All three can shoot, pass and finish as rollers in the PNR. Markwood should be at least encouraged by the possibilities.
On the other end, Maine looks like he’s trying to find his favorite guard group. Markwood runs a fairly simple ball-screen motion offense, with multiple ball-handlers running PNRs on each side of the court in a my-turn, your-turn fashion until they find a decent opportunity. At this moment, it seems like any of Lopes, Williams, Crawford or Franz will ultimately take the reins.
As always, 3-point shooting is key. When the triples are falling, those PNR lanes open up, and the offense can hum. When they aren’t, defenses sag in, messing up the spacing and bogging everything down. That’s a big reason why the Bears were a decent offense two seasons ago (when they shot 39% from 3) and a tragic one last year (when they shot 31% from 3).
I don’t know if there’s enough shot-making on the roster, but the Black Bears are letting it rip. Their 46% 3-point attempt rate would be the highest of Markwood’s tenure by nearly eight percentage points. Gribben is shooting a bit more. Flagg’s shot looks good. Williams, Franz, Crawford and Adsten are all getting involved in the catch-and-shoot game, either as initiators or receivers. The entire frontcourt looks dangerous in the pick-and-pop game, where the Black Bears are averaging over 1.2 PPP early.
Maine will never feature an offense that blows you away. But if a Markwood offense is competent on that end of the floor, the defense usually carries them the rest of the way.
But there’s one major red flag on that end of the court: the Black Bears have forced just 26 turnovers through three games, a 12% rate that ranks 325th nationally.
Markwood’s defense is built on aggressive perimeter defense. Both Markwood’s zone and man coverages emphasize extended on-ball pressure, and he really knows how to coach up guards on the perimeter while finding under-recruited forwards on the back end. Year in and year out, Markwood’s teams lead the league in defensive turnover rate (ranked 36th nationally last year at 19%) while destroying drive-and-kick offenses with elite dribble defense (.51 dribble jumper PPP allowed and .81 attack-and-kick PPP allowed last season) and forcing drawn-out, inefficient, late-shot-clock possessions (19-second average defensive possession length, sixth-longest nationally).
If the Black Bears aren’t forcing turnovers, what happens? I literally have never fathomed this possibility.
That being said, Gribben looks like he might be in for a career year as a shot-blocker and rim deterrent. He’s been electric on the back end, while also chipping in his typical excellent post-up defense. Evans also has a 7% block rate as Gribben’s backup, while Flagg is a smart, steady positional defender in any Markwood defensive scheme.
One big thing about this roster is the improved size. Williams and Lopes are lengthy guards, and their early rotations will feature three frontcourt players standing between 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-10. That may lead to improved interior defense and rebounding, which Markwood often actively schemes against.
“We have a very high ceiling defensively,” Markwood said in an interview with Basket Under Review. “We have some really good on-ball defenders, good versatility on the wing, and I love the bodies and athletes we have at the five spot.”
I’ll put my hands up here: I’m a bit at a loss right now. So I tapped ESPN+’s Maine play-by-play broadcaster, Bryan Stackpole, for some comments:
“The guard play needs to evolve, but I think Franz is an All-Rookie member for sure,” he said. “The team has a lot of size and depth, along with much-improved 3-point shooting. I thought Triestman got confidence in the last game, which is a big sign. The biggest problems right now are on defense, where there’s limited understanding of the system, rotations, and the 3-2 zone, but I’m confident they’ll get it by December.”
Ultimately, Markwood is the best coach in the conference. I imagine he’ll figure it all out by January.
TLDR: Hands up, I don’t know. It looks like Markwood is still tinkering with everything, mostly rotations. But honestly, he’s too good a coach to doubt. It’s just about which guards, forwards, and wings can best understand and execute his two-way scheme.
Binghamton Bearcats (7)
Starting Five
- Jeremiah Quigley
- Jake Blackburn
- Bobby Montgomery
- Dylan Godfrey
- Demetrius Lilley
Rotation
- KiJan Robinson
- Jayden Lemond
- Jayden Kelsey
Roster Thoughts
Surprisingly, I missed all three of Binghamton’s opening-week games, so this section of the preview won’t be as insightful as the other eight (yeah, I don’t watch every game, sue me).
It’s pretty easy to see that Jeremiah Quigley is on pace for another superstar season. He’s averaging 18/6 with an absurd 45% assist rate. He’ll remain one of the nation’s highest-usage players, setting the table for Levell Sanders’ cut-heavy offense by breaking down defenses off the bounce, but he’s always happy to score at all three levels or earn a trip to the charity stripe. He posted 18/12/9 against Rider on Sunday.
His frontcourt mate, Demetrius Lilley, has looked like the Robin to Quigley’s Batman. He’s going to grab every single available rebound on both ends of the court, as he’s already averaging over 14 rebounds through three games. While I think he has more individual scoring ability than we give him credit for, Lilley should earn most of his points by rolling or cutting off Quigley.
As mentioned before, the Quigley-Lilley combination instantly gives Binghamton the best inside-out duo in the conference. They’re two sure-fire All-Conference players.
The big question with Binghamton was what would happen with the rest of the roster.
Unfortunately, the guy I ranked highest, KiJan Robinson, got hurt before the season and hasn’t seen the floor yet. Whenever he returns, I expect him to be a solid off-ball cutter and shooter, while serving as a secondary ball-handler when Quigley needs a breather (that won’t happen often).
In his stead, Sanders has tried out several guys on the wing.
It looks like Evan Ashe got a start for opening night against Northwestern before getting hurt — what is with the Bearcats and injuries? Jake Blackburn started at the two after that, which I personally prefer, given he’s an excellent off-ball shooter. Of course, that’s the only thing he can do, and he’s been lifeless outside of shooting 36% from deep.
Otherwise, it’s been a combination of Bobby Montgomery Jr., Jayden Kelsey and Jayden Lemond.
Montgomery has moved the ball well and is efficient on the interior, so I’ll guess I’ll continue to advocate for him, considering Kelsey has been underwhelming in every opportunity (shooting 20% from the floor in 25 minutes per game this season), while I still think Lemond might have a brutal turnover problem.
However, I’m happy Sanders decided to go with Dylan Godfrey at four.
Sanders said he may use him similarly to how he used Ben Callahan-Gold a few years ago, and I loved how that worked out. Again, I haven’t watched any of the games, but I did notice he’s basically been ripping mid-range jumpers, and then I saw this clip from the game against Northwestern:
That looks like either a floppy or flex action. Regardless, I like it and am excited to see more. So far, Godfrey is the team’s second-leading scorer (12 PPG), likely just from ripping around screens like this. He’s also taking nearly five 3s per game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits more than 29% for the rest of the season.
Team Thoughts
I actually really like Binghamton’s offense. The Bearcats have snuck up to fourth among AmEast offenses in my power ratings, and I would say they’re actually the third-best, given I’m all the way out on UMBC (which I have barely a point better offensively on a per-100-possession basis).
Quigley and Lilley are an elite offensive engine, and the team has some solid spacing with Godfrey and Blackburn roaming around them. If Robinson comes back a half-decent off-ball shooter and cutter, Sanders will have a really good top five on that end of the court.
But the defense looks really bad. The Bearcats rank 328th nationally in half-court PPP allowed (1.16) and 351st in overall defensive efficiency (114.1). The dribble defense again looks like an abomination (.97 PPP allowed on rim attacks, 1.27 PPP allowed on dribble jumpers).
It looks like Sanders is trying to compensate for an overall lack of athleticism by packing it in, which has helped the Bearcats keep teams away from the rim. But they aren’t stopping anything when teams get into the paint, and they won’t force turnovers or block shots.
Some of these numbers are juiced up from their outing against Northwestern, but the overall numbers include Rider and Saint Peter’s, two teams that will very likely be sub-350 defenses.
Another thing to keep in mind is that, so far, Binghamton is playing like an absolute snail, putting together games of 64, 61 and 60 possessions. So, while they only allowed 63 points to Rider, the Broncs somehow eclipsed the one-point-per-possession mark.
But we’ll learn a lot about the defense in the coming weeks, especially in the games against Lafayette, Army and Lehigh.
TLDR: I like the offense, especially if Robinson comes back. I’m pretty sure this will be a really bad defensive team, especially given their overall lack of athleticism, which they can better cover on offense through Quigley’s heroics in a good scheme. Keep a close eye on their pace, which has been super-duper slow so far.
NJIT Highlanders (8)
Starting Five
- David Bolden
- Mario Tatum
- Brandon Stores
- Victor Vandertraeten
- Matheo Coffi
Rotation
- Quentin Duncan
- John Kelly
- Rocco Awad
Roster Thoughts
In some ways, David Bolden is still David Bolden. He’s averaging four assists per game as the table setter while heating up the rock as Grant Billmeier’s main POA defender.
But in other ways, Bolden is falling short of Bolden expectations. He’s made just four of his 14 triples so far this season (29%), which is a major issue because he cannot get downhill and finish at the rim to save his life (0-for-7 from 2-point range). If he’s not going to be a certified clutch shot maker, then his offensive game becomes limited real quick.
The Highlanders needed to replace Sebastian Robinson’s rim pressure in other ways. So far, they’ve found some in their new European frontcourt. Victor Vanderstraeten and Matheo Coffi are the team’s two leading scorers, mostly getting downhill via posting, rolling and cutting sets, doing all three relatively efficiently. Coffie has a solid pick-and-pop game, now 3-for-7 from deep this year, but Vanderstraeten is a pure interior scorer, averaging eight paint points per game.
Brandon Stores, Mario Tatum and Quintin Duncan are all chipping in off the wings, although to limited efficiency. That said, Stores did do this:
Team Thoughts
Unfortunately, I don’t have much good to say about NJIT’s start.
Yeah, the frontcourt is getting some rim pressure, but the bigger problem is that there’s zero downhill rim pressure coming from the backcourt. Duncan has always been more of an off-ball shooter than a spot-up driver. Stores and Tatum are the team leaders in rim-attack frequency, but they’ve averaged about .8 PPP on those sets. I don’t know if Bolden will ever figure out how to go forward off the bounce instead of stepping back.
In Billmeier’s ball-screen and isolation offense, this is a death sentence. NJIT scored 24 paint points against Dayton, 26 against Iona, and then a measly 16 against Saint Peter’s. The Highlanders rank 342nd nationally in near-proximity attempt rate and 322nd in near-proximity shooting.
NJIT fell apart down the stretch last season because the triples stopped falling, showing cracks in the underlying process, which was filled with mid-range jumpers (the league’s longest average 2-point shot distance). While the Highlanders are less reliant on mid-range jumpers from the guards, they’re currently not making any 3s (22%), which isn’t exactly making things easy on Bolden, Vanderstraeten and Coffi in ball screens.
The Highlanders hung their hat on defense last year behind great individual defenders. Melvyn Ebonkoli was a singular defensive force who was a three-level monster in ball-screen coverage as a hedge-and-recover guy. Jordan Rogers graded out as one of the best defenders in the conference (sixth among qualified players in DBPM). Ari Fulton provided length on the wing at 6-foot-7, but he was most impactful as a defensive rebounder (seven per 40 minutes, 99th percentile). SebRob was a bully at the POA (1.4 steals per game) while also chipping in on the boards (3.0 defensive rebounds per game).
When those four shared the court, the Highlanders posted a 94.3 Defensive Rating (100th percentile). They were all experienced players who fit well in Billmeier’s dribble-denial, shell-like defense.
The personnel just isn’t the same. They gave up 44 paint points to Dayton and 38 to Iona. They held Saint Peter’s to just 22 paint points, but that’s not exactly an elite interior offense. The Highlanders are getting shredded at the rim, with those three opponents combining to shoot 37-for-56 on layups and driving layups (over 60%).
They’re still forcing turnovers, but I think the new frontcourt duo is selling out for those more than they should, which is further hurting the rim defense while ruining them on the defensive glass. Last year’s elite compact defense still struggled on the boards, and this year’s squad got out-rebounded in the AmEast-Metro challenge by 30 (81-51).
All in all, I’m worried.
TLDR: The new EuroFrontcourt has been fun on offense, but the rest of the roster is putting zero pressure on the rim. This year’s roster was never going to replicate last season’s, but the dribble-denial shell is showing far too many cracks. I’m worried.
UMBC Retrievers (9)
Starting Five
- Flash Burton
- Devin Ceaser
- Aidan Able
- Jovan Ristic
- Riley Jacobs
Rotation
- Carlos Varela
- JP Ndong
- Steven Huan
Roster Thoughts
Devin Ceaser (16 PPG) and Flash Burton (12 PPG) will score. They are ideal Jim Ferry guards because they’re both aggressive, up-tempo, off-the-dribble guards. They’ve also been surprisingly good on the boards, combining for seven per game.
But freshman Aidan Able might be the team’s best backcourt player. He is a super-smooth scorer off the dribble and has been easily the most efficient guy in the backcourt. He also leads the team in assists (three per game on a 24% rate with just a 12% turnover rate). He’ll be an awesome player in this system.
Riley Jacobs is having a full-on breakout season at the five. Through two games, he’s logged 32 points, 11 rebounds, four steals and three blocks. He’s playing smarter and more physically than last season. He’s becoming a better rim deterrent. He’s getting to the line more than ever, and he’ll be a nightmare on the offensive glass in AmEast play.
But the key to this season might be Steven Huan. The Chinese seven-footer moves well for his size, showing the ability to play solid drop defense while attacking the basket off the dribble. He clearly has the physical tools to replicate what Jose Roberto Tanchyn did for the Retrievers last season. Still, the early returns aren’t promising, with zero points in 17 minutes across two games.
I like Jovan Ristic and JP Ndong, but it’s clear they won’t have the same outsized impact as last season’s lower-level transfers did.
Team Thoughts
To the shock and awe of everyone around me, I projected UMBC as the league’s worst team in the preseason. And honestly, everything I was worried about then has materialized through the team’s first few games.
Last year’s team was a perfect storm. Ferry scouted the lower levels and found five gems, including three elite starters. Tanchyn was a generational fit, while the Ace Valentine-Jah’likai King-DJ Armstrong backcourt formed the league’s best dribble defense.
“Without much money, I had to do something different and unique last year, which is why I took five Division-II guys and started three of them,” Ferry said in an interview with Mid-Major Madness. “This year, those same kids were commanding money, so there weren’t many Division-II kids out there that we could get like the year before.”
Typically, Ferry-led teams don’t play much defense, as he mostly recruits skill over size. This year’s team is once again small, running 6-foot-5 at the four while the rather slim Jacobs anchors the five. At the POA, Caesar and Burton were awful dribble defenders at their prior stop. The team’s one decent defender, Regimantas Ciunys, has gone MIA.
The common thread in Ferry’s bottom-tier defenses has been a lack of size, most evident in their rim protection and rebounding. Through two games this year, UMBC has allowed opponents to shoot 69% on 42 rim attempts, and the Retrievers have been out-rebounded by 18 (90-72). The game against George Mason is forgivable, but Marist is typically a terrible offense, and the Red Foxes shot 50% inside the arc and snagged 13 offensive rebounds en route to 88 points.
Because he built an elite defense, Ferry pumped the brakes last season and leaned into it. This year, he’s gone back to his old ways, ranking top-50 nationally in tempo and trying to re-create the team led by Marcus Banks, Bryce Johnson and Dion Brown in the backcourt.
Able is great, Ceaser has 14 paint points across his first two games, and Burton is shooting 40% from 3.
But this is a far cry from the Banks-Johnson-Brown backcourt. Burton and Ceaser have shot a combined 20-for-61 from the field (33%), with the team ranking 272nd nationally in average 2-point shot distance. They are creating almost zero solid attack-and-kick opportunities, instead relying on a rim-attack game that couldn’t crack .9 PPP against Marist. They will play fast and aggressive, but they will also be wildly inefficient in the process.
This is a massive rebound-and-regression year for the Retrievers. This will look like a classic Ferry-led team, but it will be as inefficient as ever. That’s going to be tough when the rest of the league looks like it’s improving.
TLDR: I’m out on the Retrievers. This is a total rebound-and-regression season behind a small defense and an inefficient scoring backcourt.
