Last week was a week off from learning after the 70-21 win over Georgia State. Life happens sometimes and not much new could be learned from thoroughly thrashing a very bad team when there is a revenge
motive. Then Vanderbilt’s defense met its toughest test and leaked a little bit in the 55-35 win over Utah State. However, there are some mitigating factors that will be covered.
For probably the last week, I have withheld any topics from entering “Know Well” territory. After Alabama, I think a lot of things will be much more solidified. We have mostly just seen the good for this team against opponents that could not measure up to the Commodores. If Alabama falls into the “could not measure up” category, we are in for a VERY special season. If the game is competitive, it gives us a good measuring stick. If Vanderbilt gets blown out, they are probably in the second tier of teams that are Top 25 but not serious contenders.
Lessons We Are Learning
Diego Pavia is even better this season than he was in 2024. Through 5 games, he has QBRs of 83.4, 89.0, 78.7, 93.4, and 92.9 for an average of 88.4. Through the Kentucky game when he was injured, he posted a 91.3, 52.7, 36.6, 84.2, 96.0, and 86.9 (Kentucky). The variances are gone. He is playing efficiently and playing well snap to snap and game to game. He also only had 3 games over 250 yards passing. His completion percentage through those 6 healthy games was 69% as he averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and 186 yards per game. He also carried the ball an average of 17.5 times per game for an average of 3.7 YPC. In 2025, the completion percentage (74.6%), YPA (9.6), Y/GP (242.2), and YPC (6.1) are all up while the carries per game is down to 9.6. If you do the math, he is averaging about 6 yards per game less on the ground, but he is more than making up for it with the passing yardage. Carrying the ball just over half as often is also going to keep him healthier longer. Pavia is also helping himself by getting out of bounds more often, and he even slid for the first time I can remember against Utah State. Oh, and he has only been sacked 3 times in 5 games as opposed to 10 through 6 in 2024.
One big key to Pavia and Vanderbilt’s improved passing attack is Tre Richardson. The D-II transfer has taken Quincy Skinner’s role and does everything Skinner did, which should be not be undersold, and does it with more athleticism. Richardson is second in receiving yards and receptions on the season behind Eli Stowers. He has 236 yards from 18 catches with a single TD. Richardson also has 4 carries for 37 yards. Richardson is the deep threat that keeps defenses from being able to shift coverages towards Stowers or Junior Sherrill. His work as kick returner has also given the Commodores good field position a few times, and he is due to break one. Soon.
Speaking of Stowers, I mentioned before that no one should be concerned about Stowers somewhat limited production through 3 games, especially against Virginia Tech and South Carolina where he had only 29 and 45 yards, respectively. He made 5 catches for 73 yards against Georgia State and 6 catches for 68 against Utah State. The best example of how much trust Pavia has in Stowers was the opening drive to the second half. Stowers dropped an easy catch on a post route then Pavia immediately called the exact same play and hit him again for 27 yards then ran a very similar play with a shallower break for a 10-yard TD. This entire team knows they can trust Stowers, and the confidence Pavia has in him could not be more obvious. The Alabama performance last season was 6 catches for 113 yards. I would expect to see Stowers show up big in Tuscaloosa.
Pavia’s fewer rushes per game, while still being the rushing attempt leader by 2 over Sedrick Alexander, is being pulled up by a quartet behind him. Alexander has 46 carries for 243 yards for a sweet 5.3 YPC with 4 TDs. MK Young is providing some home run threat with 211 yards on only 20 carries for a wild 10.6 YPC and also 4 scores. Everyone’s favorite (or second favorite if you are a big Nic Rinaldi fan) walk-on, Jamezell Lassiter has an absurd 144 yards off of only 8 carries for 18.0 YPC and 2 TDs. AJ Newberry has been limited a bit but has 11 carries for 43 yards for 3.9 YPC and 3 TDs. When Newberry was the only RB over 4.0 YPC in 2024, the efficiency has gone off the chart, but they are also Top 30 in rushing plays of 10+ and 20+ yards. The Commodores are 4th in 30+ and 40+ yard carries. In the 5 games, only Pavia has repeated as leading rusher in terms of yardage with each of Young, Alexander, and Lassiter taking a game each. As each facet of the offense improves, Tim Beck’s creativity in play calling and play design is feeding off itself.
The boys really making all of this work are the offensive line. The backs are all averaging more yards per carry. Pavia has been sacked only 3 times through 5 games. Another big key is the 3rd down percentage. Vanderbilt is 3rd in the country at 59.5%. The Commodores only even went to 3rd down twice in the first half against Utah State. Plays like that are possible because the offensive line is allowing Tim Beck to run whatever he wants whenever he wants. Most of the times that Pavia has eventually been pressured were due to teams dropping numbers into coverage then someone coming free after 3, 4, or 5 seconds. By that point, Pavia is able to find a path to slip through and scramble to either throw or run himself. The Crimson Tide front has only managed 6 sacks through their first 5 games and is allowing 4.34 yards per carry, which is 93rd in FBS. Still, they have individuals who can cause problems. Pushing the Tide around would be a statement.
Lessons For Further Study
This feels like it should maybe be a bigger issue, but can Vanderbilt limit penalties at some point? They have had some bad “luck” in the past 2 games with calls that left fans, commentators, and other viewers all confused. However, they have also been guilty quite a few times. It should be noted that against Utah State, they only committed 1 penalty for 10 yards in the second half. The 5 for 55 in the first half kept 2 of the Aggies’s first half TD drives alive. The first TD came after a pathetic Roughing the Passer, but that play also had a Hands to the Face call that was fair and would have had the same effect. The second TD followed TWO penalties on punts. The first was an atrocious phantom Defensive Holding on a punt that was shanked/blocked into a safety then 4 plays later Marlen Sewell was called for a Roughing the Kicker on a punt that replay clearly showed hitting his fingertips, which would have wiped off the penalty. The cleaner second half needs to be how they play the entire game against Alabama, but they also need the refs to somehow be less awful.
Pavia did throw another interception against Utah State, but it was a dedicated shot play after Vanderbilt forced a fumble to create a turnover. It was also a chance for Pavia to set Vanderbilt’s single-game passing TD record. He just left the ball a little bit inside and allowed the safety to make a play on it. This was an interception that was, unlike his first 2 this eason, not a problem. Other than that, there were no fumbles or really any throws in danger. The ball security is another key. Keep the ball moving and do not give other teams free possessions.
The run defense is making it very difficult for teams to do to Vanderbilt what Vanderbilt’s offense does to them. At just 79.8 yards per game (12th in FBS) and 3.02 yards per carry (25th in FBS), other teams are finding it very difficult do anything on the ground. Alabama is averaging 31.25 yards per game (108th) and 3.9 YPC (99th) on the ground, so this is a matchup of Vanderbilt’s strength is matching up with Alabama’s weakness. Still, Vanderbilt is going to have to focus on the aerial attack, so how well can they keep the run in check to keep Alabama unbalanced?
Unfortunately, since it is strength versus weakness in Vanderbilt’s favor when Alabama wants to run the ball, it is strength versus weakness in Alabama’s favor when the Ty Simpson drops back to pass. Vanderbilt ranks 55th in passing yards allowed per game (199.0) and 28th in passing yards per attempt (5.9), but those numbers seem misleading. Utah State’s passers combined to go 28/38 for 247 yards, which is 7.2 yards per attempt. They have been protected by facing teams with inconsistent at best passing attacks. Also, the defensive line has the Commodores 13th in sacks at 14. It seems unlikely that the Crimson Tide, who have only allowed 5 sacks all season, will be as effected by the pressure. Steve Gregory has been able to dial up exotic blitzes when he wants to get into the back of tricks. Maybe against a team that seems disinterested in running the ball (or simply cannot do it well), Gregory will feel comfortable to keep dialing up pass blitzes all day to keep the Tide OL on its heels and forcing Simpson to get the ball out quickly.
Whatever happens down to down, can Vanderbilt force some turnovers? Vanderbilt has forced 9 turnovers in 5 games. That has them ranked T-8th in FBS. They have recovered 6 fumbles and snagged 3 interceptions. The fumble recovered against Utah State was on a 3rd and long run where Bryson Barnes had scrambled for a 1st down but had the ball knocked free as he got into the secondary. If they can make Alabama cough the ball up, it will be the first turnover Alabama has given away, which is a club with two other members (Temple and UConn) this season. This strength-strength matchup may be the most important competition in a game that may well become a shootout. An extra possession either way could be the difference.
What is going to come out of the bag of tricks? Gregory has shown that he can dial up some tricky pressure-coverage combinations defensively. Tim Beck and Jerry Kill can definitely scheme up some wild plays on offense. The fun part of the offense is that the extra variations off every play might seem gimmicky, but they are just part of the offense. It is hard to call any play outside of a WR/TE reverse pass a “trick play” for an offense where WRs use orbit motion return (jet sweep then curl back towards where they came from but behind QB) on a regular basis. It is less about trick plays versus just adding an extra option or variation to a play where defenders have to wait for a play to develop before reacting. Hesitation kills them when Vanderbilt beats them to the point of attack. In special teams, could Jeff LePak have a Bill Marinangel-esque fake punt up his sleeve?
Every week, the spotlight gets brighter, and the Commodores respond emphatically. A #16 vs #10 matchup with College GameDay in town for one of the two biggest games in all of college football this weekend is about as big as the stage can get in the regular season. Players have talked big games coming into this one. Langston Patterson said, “I don’t want to be able to walk the next morning. I want to go out there and give it everything I’ve got, and I want to go dominate.” Sedrick Alexander was more definitive when he stated, “I feel like we’re going to go dominate down there in Tuscaloosa. I feel like we have the best coaching staff and best players in the country, so I feel like we’re going to do great things.” Of course, the ring leader of Vanderbilt’s new, brash attitude Diego Pavia chimed in, “But we just gotta play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won’t be close.” The Commodores are calling their shot. They are saying this will be another game like South Carolina and Virginia Tech where people double take the scoreboard. Vanderbilt winning would get attention. Vanderbilt “dominating” Alabama would rock the college football world and push the only private school in the SEC into a near-favorite position for the conference crown.
Folks, we are going to learn stuff in this game. It might be good, bad, or ugly. It might even be amazing. I do not think I have been as excited or as scared, much less the combination of the two, about any game in Vanderbilt history. Even James Franklin’s teams never had THIS sort of moment. None of those had the attitude coming from the QB spot. The Commodores are going to war, and and they may actually have the firepower to go toe-to-toe.
