The news broke this morning that Kirill Kaprizov has indeed earned the largest contract in NHL history, inking a deal for a whopping $17 million AAV over 8 seasons with the Minnesota Wild. The news comes just about a month after reports of Kaprizov turning down what would have also been the largest contract in NHL history at $16 million AAV.
Wild leadership followed through on their rumblings of doing whatever it took to retain Kaprizov’s services, but will Colorado do the same as it pertains to Martin
Necas, or will he be dealt just like Mikko Rantanen was?
This market-busting deal sheds new light on those yet to be extended, and smack dab in the middle of that list is Avalanche winger Martin Necas. It goes without saying that top-end hockey players have just become more expensive, but how will this market adjustment affect Necas and the Colorado Avalanche?
Toodle-oo Team Friendly
I think anyone assuming that any player will take a “team-friendly” deal over the next five seasons is a bit naive. Martin Necas has nothing but leverage as we inch closer to the regular season, and any success he realizes with Colorado will only bolster his claim to elite status and subsequently drive up his cost. The same is true for any other pending free agents, and that crop currently includes Connor McDavid.
I think this season and the subsequent summer after will prove to be the most scene-shaking timeframe in the modern era of hockey. I do believe we see a number of the games’ most proven and prosperous talent playing for teams that we wouldn’t have ever expected. With all of that volatility on the table, I bet agents advise players differently than before in the sense that they will be far more willing to hit the open market. That will leave teams to choose whether to let them walk or deal said talent elsewhere.
The Price is Wrong
The Martin Necas debacle is just the Mikko Rantanen saga all over again, but I suppose that’s another article. I say that because in that situation, Colorado chose to deal Mikko for several reasons, but ultimately because they weren’t willing to pay him the reported $14 million that he asked for. The same is likely true for Colorado and Martin Necas, whose representation should advise him to ask for $11-12 million, especially now that Kaprizov would still be making $6 million more than that.
If the Avalanche disagrees with the price, they have already demonstrated their willingness to move on. They can’t possibly have more loyalty and respect for Martin Necas than they did for Mikko Rantanen, so don’t be surprised if they once again procrastinate by way of trade.
Pay Up
All of this is to say that I think the Avs should swallow their pride and pay Necas his asking price in real time. Even if they think it’s inflated, they can lean on cap percentage logic and remind themselves that his price will go up every day that goes by. They can’t just keep kicking the can down the road because every time it’s kicked, actually picking it up gets more expensive — even if the can is now far less appealing.
Using Nathan MacKinnon’s AAV as the benchmark is no longer a responsible or applicable tactic; therefore, let’s remove it from our consideration. The cost of retaining top-end talent continues to increase over time, and the Avs need to accept that fact and start paying up.
