Daily updates begin today, even though this is going to be a quick one (for migraine-related reasons). The biggest changes since Friday …
- There’s a new No. 1 seed, with Florida, who had been ahead of UConn in most metrics for a couple of weeks, finally jumping the Huskies following their bad loss to Marquette. UConn is still the top No. 2 seed, but Houston, Illinois, and Michigan State all have the chance to pass them with good weeks.
- The only change in membership in the Top 16 was Vanderbilt replacing Texas Tech, who followed a home loss to TCU with a setback at BYU.
- There are two new at-larges—VCU and New Mexico replace Auburn and Indiana. Both the Rams and Lobos are in the First Four slots alongside SMU and Texas.
- Santa Clara defeated Pacific in the WCC Quarterfinals last night, 76-68. I’ve moved the Broncos out of the Dayton slots. Given all the losses their competition suffered over the weekend, I would be shocked if Herb Sendek’s team were left out even with a loss in their rubber match against Saint Mary’s later tonight (11:30 p.m., ESPN2).
- This weekend was also good for Miami (Ohio). Not only did the RedHawks win at Ohio for the first time since 2011 in one of the most thrilling games of the season—110-108 after OT, but the collapse of the bubble will make it more difficult for the Committee to leave them out should they fail to win the MAC auto bid. Just don’t lose to UMass on Thursday, Miami.
- The record for most losses for an at-large team is 15: Texas last year, 2019 Florida, 2018 Alabama, 2017 Vanderbilt. Auburn is threatening to possibly break that. At 16-15, their next loss will be their 16th. All four of those 15-loss teams made runs in the SEC Tournament to get to 19 wins—the Longhorns to the quarterfinals in a 16-team tournament, the other three to the semifinals in a 14-team tournament. That means the Tigers will really need to make a run in Nashville to end up in the field—16-16 with a loss on Wednesday won’t do it.
- Last season, the No. 1 seed won 17 of 31 conference tournaments, the most since the field expanded to 68 in 2011. This year, we have already seen No. 1 seeds lose in the ASUN, CAA, MVC, and Patriot League. High Point (Big South), North Dakota State (Summit), and Tennessee State (OVC) are the three No. 1 seeds who have won their respective tournaments. A fourth, LIU, already has the NEC’s auto bid despite the final being on Tuesday night because the Sharks will meet a reclassifying Mercyhurst team who is ineligible.
- There are just two finals on tonight’s schedule; both of which feature top seeds. SoCon No. 1 ETSU takes on sixth-seeded Furman (7 p.m., ESPN), while Sun Belt No. 1 Troy meets 10th-seeded Georgia Southern (7 p.m., ESPN2). The Eagles are looking to win their sixth game in as many days—they only received a single bye in the Sun Belt gauntlet.
NOTES:
- Changes since Friday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
- Teams that have clinched auto bids are in ALL CAPS BOLD.
- The highest-remaining seed in an active conference tournament holds its auto bid.
(1) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) UMBC (AE)
(8) Kentucky
▲(9) TCU
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
▼(5) Texas Tech
★(12) NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
▲(4) Vanderbilt
★(13) Hofstra (CAA)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Wisconsin
▼(11) Missouri
(3) Iowa State
(14) NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) Utah State (MW)
▲(10) Santa Clara
(2) Illinois
(15) ETSU (SoCon)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▲(1) Florida (SEC)
(16) LIU (NEC)/Howard (MEAC)
▼(8) Saint Louis (A 10)
(9) Iowa
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) North
Carolina (12) HIGH POINT (Big South)
(4) Kansas
(13) Utah Valley (WAC)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Tennessee
—/★(11) SMU/New Mexico
(3) Purdue
▲(14) Wright State (Horizon)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Miami (Fla.)
(10) Ohio State
▼(2) UConn
▲(15) TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
—/★(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)/Lehigh (Patriot)
(8) Clemson
(9) Texas A&M
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) St. John’s (Big East)
(12) Yale (Ivy)
(4) Alabama
(13) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Louisville
—/★(11) Texas/VCU
(3) Nebraska
(14) Troy (Sun Belt)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Saint Mary’s
▼(10) NC State
(2) Houston
(15) Portland State (Big Sky)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
★(16) QUEENS (ASUN)
(8) Georgia
(9) UCLA
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Arkansas
▼(12) South Florida (American)
(4) Virginia
(13) Liberty (CUSA)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
▲(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
(14) UC Irvine (Big West)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Villanova
(10) UCF
(2) Michigan State
▲(15) Merrimack (MAAC)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: NC State, UCF, Santa Clara, Missouri
Last Four IN: Texas, SMU, VCU, New Mexico
First Four OUT: Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Auburn, Indiana
Next Four Out: Stanford, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Seton Hall
On Deck: Cal, Tulsa, USC Boise State
ARRIVALS (6): Hofstra (CAA), Lehigh (Patriot), New Mexico, Northern Iowa (MVC), Queens (ASUN), VCU
DEPARTURES: Auburn, Belmont (MVC), Central Arkansas (ASUN), Indiana, Navy (Patriot), UNCW (CAA)
Conference Breakdown
SEC (10): Florida (auto bid), Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas (First Four)
Big Ten (9): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), Clemson, NC State, SMU (First Four)
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU, UCF
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s (auto bid), Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis (auto bid), VCU (First Four)
MW (2): Utah State (auto bid), New Mexico (First Four)
23 one-bid conferences
