Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 5 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars, every member of our contributor panel picked Kansas City to win. As a group, we expected the Chiefs to win 29-19 — a prediction
that carried 26 points of error when compared to Kansas City’s 31-28 loss. Our readers were also taken by surprise. Almost 90% thought the Chiefs would prevail.
In Week 6, the Chiefs face the Detroit Lions on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to
FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 2.5 points.Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
If it makes anyone feel better, I’ve done a terrible job picking these games — so me picking the Lions here is probably a good sign for Kansas City. I think the Chiefs’ offense will move the ball. The Lions are banged up in their secondary, and it feels like Kansas City’s offense is turning a corner. The offensive line is rapidly improving, the run game looks better and the explosive passes continue to work.
That said, I don’t see how the defense gets stops. I don’t trust the Chiefs’ pass rush at all — and if you allow Jared Goff to sit cleanly in the pocket, he’ll tear you apart with his weapons. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo might design an awesome game plan to generate pressure, but I think the Lions’ offense is too strong — and their defense gets the one extra stop to win.
Lions 33, Chiefs 30
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
I can’t blame anybody who looks at this matchup and sees the Lions going back to Detroit with a win. But the Chiefs have their backs against the wall. The last time that happened, Kansas City won six straight games — and its second straight Super Bowl.
I wouldn’t swear the Chiefs are going to win the rest of this season’s games — or reach their fourth straight Super Bowl, either. But this is not a game where I would bet against Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, and Chris Jones. So I won’t.
Chiefs 31, Lions 24
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
Kansas City should have won in Jacksonville. In fact, this team could just as easily be 5-0. So far, only the Chiefs have consistently been able to beat… themselves.
That setback should serve as a wake-up call. Expect Kansas City to look sharper and more focused when it faces the Lions on Sunday night — in what feels like an early-season statement game. Mahomes and the offense appear to be finding their rhythm, and Spagnuolo should have a plan to keep Goff uncomfortable. If the Chiefs can contain the Lions’ backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, they’ll be in a good position to get back on track.
It may not be a blowout, but Kansas City’s balance and urgency should carry them through.
Chiefs 27, Lions 20
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
When the Chiefs started 0-2, the realistic goal was to be 3-3 before the return of Rashee Rice. Unfortunately, they dropped the game in Jacksonville — which now makes Sunday a must-win to reach that goal.
Despite Detroit being a very good team, the Lions are dealing with a plethora of injuries in their secondary. I expect Mahomes and company to take advantage. On the other side of the ball, it will be challenging — but if Nohl Williams sees more snaps, I think they can hold up well against the Lions’ receivers.
Chiefs 31, Lions 27
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
If the Chiefs’ offensive line can hold up against the Lions’ pass rush, this game should be a shootout. Both offenses are clicking — and each team has defensive deficiencies that could heavily influence the outcome.
The Lions will be without key secondary contributors, while the Chiefs’ defense is coming off a lackluster performance against Jacksonville that produced little pass rush. To stay in the game, Kansas City must find a way to block Aidan Hutchinson and account for him on key downs. The best way to neutralize great pass rushers is by running the ball — and the Chiefs did that effectively from under center last week, which also set up play-action looks later in the game.
With a depleted secondary, Detroit will likely try to pressure Mahomes quickly. The Chiefs must counter with quick routes and safety valves to running backs or tight ends. Defensively, they should try to limit explosives and force long drives.
If there were ever a time for a redemption game from the defensive line, it’s this week. This one will likely come down to which team holds onto the ball, forces a turnover, or makes a big play on special teams.
Chiefs 31, Lions 28
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
Sure… by the numbers, the Lions have the NFL’s best offense — and one of the best young pass rushers in Aidan Hutchinson — but I honestly think the Chiefs match up better against Detroit’s offense than they did against Jacksonville’s.
I feel like a broken record when I say the only team that can beat the Chiefs is themselves, but it’s true. The problem is, Kansas City has been really good at doing that through five weeks.
I think this team feels embarrassed about how the Jaguars game ended: blowing a two-touchdown lead in the final minutes. Because of that, I expect to see the most focused and locked-in Chiefs squad we’ve seen all year.
Kansas City should do whatever it takes to limit Amon-Ra St. Brown — just as it did against Malik Nabers and the Giants. If one of Detroit’s other weapons beats them, so be it. But I’m picking the Chiefs to step up at home.
Chiefs 27, Lions 26
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
Early on, I planned to pick the Lions to win at Arrowhead. But Detroit’s injury situation has changed my mind. With their next four games against other NFC playoff teams from last season, I don’t expect the Lions to risk further injuries to key players in a non-conference matchup.
I think the Chiefs’ offense will roll against a depleted Detroit secondary. In fact, it has no choice. Even with starting left tackle Taylor Decker unlikely to play (and backup Giovanni Manu questionable), I still don’t trust Kansas City’s four-man pass rush to get home against Goff. Spagnuolo will likely dial up blitz packages, but through five games, Goff has a 146.8 passer rating when blitzed.
Win or lose, I expect a frustrating night for the Chiefs’ defense — but just enough from Mahomes and company to prevail in a shootout.
Chiefs 34, Lions 31
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
It’s a strange existence being a Chiefs fan. Expectations are unrealistic, problems repeat themselves and games rarely go according to plan. We see the obvious solutions — and often, the team sees something different. There’s always a reason to hope — and something to complain about.
Some things are constant: Mahomes will do amazing things if he trusts his protection. The Spagnuolo defense works when there’s enough pressure. Turnovers decide games. When teams are evenly matched, it usually comes down to who gets the ball last.
One more constant: matchups don’t matter as much as execution. If the Chiefs play to their standard, they’ll win most games. In general, I feel less concerned about the 2025 Chiefs than logic would imply.
All that said, the Lions are a tough squad, so this game could go either way. The Chiefs’ defense is capable of containing Detroit’s weapons — but will they? The Kansas City offense is better than the Detroit defense — as long as they avoid unforced errors.
I expect a great game with lots of big plays, a little weirdness and a Chiefs victory. But nothing should really surprise us at this point. The noggest constant is Mahomes — and I have a feeling he’ll deliver.
Chiefs 42, Lions 35
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 32-28.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 1 | Jared Sapp | 3 | 2 | 0.6000 | 22.0 |
| 2 | 2 | Maurice Elston | 3 | 2 | 0.6000 | 23.6 |
| 3 | 3 | Nate Christensen | 2 | 3 | 0.4000 | 21.6 |
| 4 | 4 | Caleb James | 2 | 3 | 0.4000 | 23.2 |
| 5 | 4 | Rocky Magaña | 2 | 3 | 0.4000 | 24.0 |
| 6 | 7 | John Dixon | 2 | 3 | 0.4000 | 24.4 |
| 7 | 6 | Matt Stagner | 2 | 3 | 0.4000 | 24.8 |
| 8 | 8 | Mark Gunnels | 2 | 3 | 0.4000 | 26.4 |
In Week 5, Jared Sapp had the best wrong prediction. His call for a 24-20 Chiefs win was the closest to the 31-28 loss, carrying 22 points of error. John Dixon’s prediction for a 20-30 Kansas City win was off by 26 total points.
To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
