Following a thrilling, 83-71 win over archrival Michigan State, Michigan now sits at 20-1 (10-1) and is tied atop the Big Ten with Illinois. Nebraska and Michigan State are just one game back, while Purdue, Wisconsin, and UCLA are still within striking distance. For very good reason, KenPom loves the resume the Wolverines have put together.
Just how good does KenPom think Michigan is? Let’s dive into their projections of each remaining game on Michigan’s schedule.
Vs. Penn State (2/5): 94-67, 99% win probability
Penn State currently sits in last
place in the Big Ten standings and third-to-last in the conference per KenPom (129th in the country). After Michigan narrowly escaped at Penn State, don’t expect the Wolverines to overlook the Nittany Lions at home.
At Ohio State (2/8): 84-75, 81% win probability
Michigan took care of business against the Buckeyes at home while celebrating Trey Burke. Ohio State will get their chance at revenge in Columbus on Sunday. Despite being ranked No. 42 in the country, KenPom doesn’t see the Wolverines having much trouble in the rematch.
At Northwestern (2/11): 84-70, 90% win probability
Sitting at 2-9 in conference and near the bottom of the Big Ten, the Wildcats don’t expect to be much of a threat to Michigan. The Wolverines have won eight of their last nine against the Wildcats, however, Northwestern did win just two years ago in Evanston.
Vs. UCLA (2/14): 83-68, 92% win probability
Somewhat surprisingly, KenPom thinks Michigan will smash a visiting UCLA team that is currently just three games back of the conference-leading Wolverines. This is likely due to the fact that the Bruins have only beaten one team in the KenPom top-60 (No. 8 Purdue and No. 46 Washington). The stats show that this Bruin team is very likely to regress once the schedule stiffens up.
At Purdue (2/17): 79-78, 53% win probability
Before the season, this was billed by most as the largest conference clash of the season, rivalries aside. With Purdue relatively scuffling, Michigan is now favored to win on the road, just as they were at Michigan State. However, winning at Mackey is still an incredibly difficult task.
Vs. Duke (2/21) in Washington D.C.: 77-76, 51% win probability
Fans were looking forward to this game as soon as it was scheduled. Now that the game pits two behemoths of the sport against each other late in the season, fans are even more giddy about the matchup. While not a conference game, this could be Yaxel Lendeborg’s best chance to make up ground on Cam Boozer in the NPOY rankings. Everything from awards to a potential one-seed could be on the line in this matchup.
Vs. Minnesota (2/24): 83-62, 97% win probability
After Penn State, Minnesota is the next easiest game left on Michigan’s schedule, according to KenPom. The Golden Gophers sit at 80th in the country and have lost seven in a row, including to fellow cellar-dweller Penn State. Michigan should enjoy a nice, relaxing win in the midst of the gauntlet.
At Illinois (2/27): 80-81, 50% win probability
A true coinflip, KenPom has Michigan just under a 50% chance to win the game. This is the one and only time KenPom projects Michigan to lose the rest of the season and even then, it is by the slimmest of margins. The Fighting Illini have climbed all the way up to No. 5 in KenPom’s ratings thanks to Keaton Wagler coming out of nowhere to potentially win Big Ten Player of the Year.
At Iowa (3/5): 76-72, 65% win probability
KenPom sees this game as surprisingly tricky. Bennett Stirtz and the Hawkeyes don’t have a stellar Big Ten record, but are playing inspired basketball lately, winners of four straight. The Hawkeyes have climbed all the way to No. 19 in KenPom’s rankings and will be hosting the Wolverines on Senior Day.
Vs. Michigan State (3/8): 76-69, 75% win probability
Michigan gets the clean sweep of Michigan State this season, according to KenPom. The only surprise in my eyes is the win probability percentage. 75% is the sixth highest of Michigan’s 10 remaining games. Beating the same team twice is always tricky, but this would be the cherry on top of a spectacular regular season for the Wolverines.
Put it all together, and KenPom has Michigan favored in all but one of their remaining games. Even that one game is projected to have a razor-thin margin. He gives a projected record of 28-3 on the season and 17-3 in conference when factoring in that the favorite doesn’t win every game and it’s likely that Michigan drops more than just one game in their next 10.
Since the Big Ten expanded to a 20-game conference schedule, 17-3 has been good enough to win the conference in every single season.
