The Orioles had a bad week. They lost two series, and went a combined 2-5 in that span. Neither win was particularly easy, the first requiring them to climb out of a 7-1 hole and the second seeing them take until the eighth inning to score at all. It’s just the latest development in what has been a challenging start to the 2026 campaign. Despite these struggles, could there still be reason for optimism with these Orioles?
Let’s start with the obvious, these Orioles were only “supposed” to good, not
great, anyway. Think back to pre-season predications across the industry. Most outlets had the O’s pegged for 85 or so wins. Some more, some less. That represents a step up from 2025, certainly, but nowhere near elite contender status. If things went right for them, maybe they get t0 90 wins and snag the AL East crown. If they crater, they might not even be a .500 squad.
Well, with the season less than a month old, you would have to say their luck has been more bad than good.
Injuries have, yet again, been a problem. Before the season even started they lost Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, their projected starting second and third basemen, respectively, to the IL. Andrew Kittredge, potentially the team’s set up man, and Keegan Akin, an important middle-inning option, joined them on the shelf later in spring. Since the regular season has begin, they’ve added starting catcher Adley Rutschman, starting right fielder Tyler O’Neill, rotation piece Zach Eflin, bench bat Ryan Moutcastle, and left-handed reliever Dietrich Enns to the infirmary report. It has been a blood bath.
As a result, new manager Craig Albernaz has had less flexibility to adjust a lineup that has failed to meet expectations early.
Samuel Basallo is still getting his feet under him and carries a meager 49 wRC+ in his first full season. He’s starting behind the plate most days anyway, because the other option is Sam Huff, a fringy backstop with limited offensive upside.
Coby Mayo isn’t having the turnaround he hoped for at the plate, though his improvement in the field has been much appreciated. His 36 wRC+ is the worst on the team, and yet he is getting in the lineup regularly because injuries have eaten away the infield depth the team once had.
The outfield is a work in progress. Taylor Ward (143 wRC+) and Leody Taveras (190 wRC+) are adjusting just fine to their new team. But finding that third reliable member has been tough. Colton Cowser (39 wRC+) and Dylan Beavers (74 wRC+) have been slow out of the gate, and both are left-handed. Blaze Alexander, a righty, is getting into the mix now, though that feels like a band-aid given his lack of experience in the role, and his bat has cooled significantly the last week or two anyway.
But you probably already know about this negative stuff. Let’s talk about why the sky is not, in fact, falling.
Start with the schedule. Many folks pointed to the Orioles “soft” start to the season a reason why they needed to come out of the gate on fire. So to have a 10-12 record is disappointing. But the reality is that those perceptions were based on 2025, not 2026. The teams the Orioles have played aren’t all that bad. Ten of their 22 games have been against teams with .500 records or better. No one else in the AL East has played more than six games against teams with winning records. Obviously, you need to beat good teams in order to be a good team yourself, but the Orioles are not losing to a bunch of cellar dwellers here.
Back to the injuries. It sounds like things are improving, ever so slightly, on that front.
Rutschman is eligible to return on Tuesday, though he may play in a rehab game or two first. He is with the team on the road trip and has been participating in all of the baseball activities. Bringing him back will allow the Orioles to improve their defense behind the plate and give their offense a boost, since he was one of their top hitters when he went out.
Holliday has restarted his rehab after being pulled off of it briefly with wrist soreness. That doesn’t mean he will be ready to play at the big league level immediately, but it is a good sign. His return likely pushes Mayo back down to Triple-A. In turn, that will allow Jeremiah Jackson, who leads the team in RBI, to move over to third base. Perhaps that is an overall downgrade defensively, but it should help the lineup.
O’Neill’s return is more ambiguous since he is dealing with a concussion, which can linger. But reports have been fairly positive, and he is eligible to get back on the field any day now. Once he is back on the roster, it should be simple enough for the Orioles to DFA one of Jonathan Rodríguez or Weston Wilson, though they may instead option Cowser or Beavers if they think it would help them long term.
The point here is that the depth should be getting back to the level the team hoped for coming into the season. Depth alone doesn’t get you wins, but it does allow Albernaz to cycle through players and play the hot hand. The players coming back have a batter chance of actually getting hot than many of the names they would be replacing.
On top of that, there is some data you could, admittedly, cherry pick, to tell you that a few key players should start to see their season’s turn around.
Starting in the lineup, we are yet to get the absolute best from Gunnar Henderson or Pete Alonso. Henderson has just a .211 BABIP despite having a hard-hit rate that sits in the 88th percentile of MLB. That should balance out at some point, yielding a higher batting average, present stolen base opportunities, and create offense for the O’s. Alonso has one of the highest average exit velocities (94.7 mph, 96th percentile) and hard hit rates (57.7%, 95th percentile) in the sport. He needs to get the ball in the air more, and his career pedigree says he will. Once that happens, with runners on in front of him, the Orioles are going to score a lot more runs.
Right now, the Orioles are tied for 19th in runs scored in MLB. That is only slightly better than where they finished (24th) in a disappointing 2025. In order for this team to compete for a playoff spot, they need to be a top 10 lineup. The talent that was accumulated this offseason feels like it should be able to accomplished that. But it needs its best players to perform to their ability, and they need to get healthier overall.
It’s a similar story in the rotation, where the Orioles need more out of their absolute best players: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and Shane Baz. None of them have performed to their ability, but the top line numbers obscure some good things. Rogers, for example, has a 4.08 ERA on the season, but his xERA is just 2.46 and his FIP is 3.69. Bradish looked much better in his most recent start, and that is reflected in the peripherals. His 5.49 ERA is massive compared to his 3.06 xERA and 3.18 FIP. The difference for Baz is not as stark, but it is there. He has a 4.91 ERA but a 4.21 xERA and 3.95 FIP. It’s not unrealistic to think each of them could lower their ERAs by up to a run in the next month. That would transform the team’s outlook.
On the whole, the Orioles’ pitching staff is right about where they need to be. They are 13th in ERA (3.91), 9th in xERA (3.60), and 13th in FIP (3.98). A middle-of-the-road pack of pitchers and a high-end lineup seemed to be the O’s path to success this year. But those numbers include their bullpen playing to a rather high level. A performance, by the way, that is largely backed up by solid peripherals. The rotation, on the other hand, has underperformed and has room to grow. That’s not a bad spot to be in if you believe in the Orioles’ ability to actually tap into those underlying numbers and get them to emerge on the field.
Of course, you can point out players that might go in the other direction too. Will guys like Jackson or Taveras keep hitting like all-stars? Probably not. Will the entire bullpen continue to pitch at such a high level? Eh, don’t bet on it. But getting more out of your stars, who are positioned at intentional spots in your lineup or rotation, should more than outweigh the dip in performance from the players coming out of nowhere to give you a temporary boost.
Things are not as bad as they have felt this last week. Given everything that has happened to the Orioles so far, they simply need to keep their head above water and give time for their talent to rise to the top. It is possible it won’t ever come to fruition, but it’s really all they can do at this point.
