The Kansas City Chiefs’ bye week is an excellent time to take stock of where the team now stands. Here’s what I’ve been thinking this week.
1. It was entirely predictable that the Chiefs wouldn’t make trades
It’s unfortunate. The NFL’s trade deadline happened right after the team’s 28-21 road loss to one of its fiercest AFC rivals: the Buffalo Bills. This — along with the team’s unexpected 5-4 record — amped up everyone’s expectations about what general manager Brett Veach needed to do. And to make things even worse, the team’s fans now have a whole extra week to get
themselves worked into a lather about what they see as a deliberate lack of action at a critical moment.
But it was never likely the Chiefs would make a significant trade. The team definitely has roster needs to address, but has few resources available to meet them. As our Jared Sapp noted in his “Arrowhead Pride Mailbag” column two weeks ago, the team is already going to be $30 million over the salary cap in 2026 — and that’s with only 35 players under contract. That means the team will need every draft pick it can get to bring young, inexpensive players onto the roster. And it had just $3.3 million in cap space with which to work. That’s enough to deal with the team’s current commitments through the end of the season, but it leaves little for anything else.
A significant part of this cap space problem is from the relatively large number of players the team now has on its Reserve/Injured and Reserve/NFI lists. These 10 players are now occupying $10.1 million in cap space.
For the rest of it, though… Kansas City got into this situation on its own. Based on what we now know, the deal for cornerback Kristian Fulton was a mistake. So was last season’s trade for defensive end Josh Uche — and just before this season started, releasing defensive tackle Mike Pennel.
It’s reasonable to disagree with decisions like these. But once they’ve been made, we shouldn’t be mad that Veach passed on making a trade. Giving the New York Jets a third-round pick (plus $1.6 million in 2025 salary) for running back Breece Hall? Spending a third- or fourth-round pick (and $1.3 million) to get Dre’Mont Jones from the Tennessee Titans? Given the Chiefs’ circumstances, those deals were just too pricey.
We can expect Kansas City to make some other moves. But those will be for players being waived by teams whose seasons have become hopeless. (This is how the team acquired Terrell Suggs in 2019.) These players will be significantly less expensive against the cap — and, of course, won’t require giving up draft picks.
2. Is it possible the Chiefs are done?
Since Sunday’s loss to the Bills, some have suggested that Kansas City’s season is over — that there’s no way the team can recover from its 5-4 start.
By looking at modern NFL history, you can reach that conclusion.
Since the 1970 merger, there have been 276 instances where a team had a 5-4 record after its ninth game. Most of these teams didn’t make the playoffs, but 121 (44%) did play in the postseason. Just 46 of these 5-4 teams (17%) won their divisions. Six (2%) went to the Super Bowl. Just two (less than 1%) won the championship.
So it’s true the Chiefs have dug themselves a pretty deep hole. Statistically, less than half of the 5-4 teams from the league’s modern era have made the playoffs — and only a tiny percentage of them have even come close to a championship.
Half of those outliers took advantage of a statistical quirk. On average, the whole league has had five 5-4 teams in each season since 1970. But in 2000 and 2001, there were five 5-4 teams in the AFC alone. In 2002, the AFC had six 5-4 teams. In each one of those parity-driven seasons, the AFC champion was one of those 5-4 teams. The Baltimore Ravens (2000) and New England Patriots (2001) won their Super Bowls, but the Oakland Raiders (2002) fell to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (coached by Jon Gruden, who had been the Raiders’ coach in the previous season) in Super Bowl XXXVII.
Unfortunately, the 2025 Chiefs aren’t that lucky. They are the only AFC team that started the season 5-4.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean you should count them out. Let’s not forget: in the 12 seasons Andy Reid has been the team’s head coach, the team has won 148 games. That leads the league by a lot — 20 more than the Seattle Seahawks in second place and 22 more than the Patriots in third. The team has had winning streaks of at least five games in every one of those seasons. These include 2015 — when the team won 10 straight after beginning the season 1-5 — and 2023, when the Chiefs were 9-6 after being humiliated by the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day. They won six straight to finish that season — and win their second straight Super Bowl.
Those seasons with long winning streaks also include 2021. That year, Kansas City was 5-4 after nine weeks. The team finished 7-1 to end the season 12-5, defeated the Bills 42-36 in overtime — one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history — and then recorded a 27-24 overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC championship.
And yes… that was another outlier season. Seven AFC teams started the 2021 season 5-4 — including the Bengals.
So make no mistake: it will not be easy for the Chiefs to make the postseason, win the division or get anywhere in January and February. If it succeeds — even partially — it will be remembered as the greatest challenge the franchise has ever overcome.
It reminds me of the old story. A man is walking down the street and falls into a hole. A doctor walks by, so the man asks for help getting out. The doctor tosses down a prescription and walks away. Then a priest comes along. Asked for help, he writes a prayer on a piece of paper and throws it down.
Finally a friend passes the hole. “Hey, Andy,” the man calls out. “Can you help me? I’ve fallen into this hole, and I can’t climb out.” Andy immediately jumps into the hole beside his friend.
“What’s the matter with you?“ the man asks incredulously. ”Now we’re both down here!“
“Yes,” replies Andy. “But I’ve been down here before. And I know the way out.”
