Before the season began, if I told you that the Orioles’ last series in June would be against the Chicago White Sox, and that one of those teams would be in first place, which team would you guess it would be? Probably not the White Sox! And if I asked you again after the Orioles swept the last-place White Sox in April, I assume your answer would be the same.
But since the day of that sweep, April 8th, the White Sox have gone 39-30. That’s the second-best record in the AL in that span, and they now
sit in first place in the AL Central, tied with the Cleveland Guardians. Their 43 wins are eclipsed in the AL only by the Yankees and Rays. We are just over halfway through the season. PECOTA projected the White Sox to win 69 games. Over at our sister site of South Side Sox, Hannah Filippo crunched the numbers and projected 74.
Last season, the White Sox won 60 games. So to jump to 74 would have been a marked improvement. But if they only get to 74 wins this year, it would mean playing 20 games under .500 for the rest of the season. My guess is that won’t happen. (Also, just for fun, I would like to point out that with 43 wins so far, the 2026 White Sox have already won two more games than the 2024 White Sox.)
To be clear, outside of the Orioles’ division, first place in the American League doesn’t quite have the cachet you would find in previous years. The White Sox are only four games over .500, so any kind of healthy losing streak could put them under. So far that hasn’t happened, but they are playing under .500 ball in June at 11-12. They’ll have two games in June against the Orioles to try and get a winning month.
The White Sox have scored 388 runs this season and allowed 369, which puts their real record almost in line with their Pythagorean record. But their team ERA of 4.25 is below league average. By fWAR, their starting pitching has been worth the same as the Orioles, 5.1, which is 18th in baseball. And their relief pitching has been worth just 2.0 fWAR, worse than the Orioles at 2.2.
So it’s gotta be the offense, right? Right. FanGraphs ranks the White Sox as the sixth-best hitting team in baseball. And that is being led by third baseman Miguel Vargas and shortstop Colson Montgomery. Their best hitter, Munetaka Murakami, hasn’t played since May 29th due to a hamstring injury. Could have something to do with their lackluster month of June, I think. Murakami is slated to be back in early July.
As for Vargas, the 26-year-old is in his second full season with the White Sox and has come into his own. He is batting .252/.366/.500 with 19 home runs. He walks a lot (13.5%) with a low strikeout rate (17%).
Montgomery hasn’t been as good as Vargas, but he hits for power (20 HR, 14 2B) and is a good defensive shortstop. He does strike out nearly a third of the time.
The White Sox have five players on their roster with an OPS+ of over 120. That includes Randal Grichuk, who is a noted Oriole killer. Since signing with the White Sox in early May, Grichuk has nine home runs and an OPS over 1.000, mostly as a DH. In his career, Grichuk has hit 22 home runs and 2o doubles against the Orioles with a .697 slugging %. I do not look forward to seeing that guy.
Game 1: Monday, 6:35 pm
RHP Shane Baz (16 GS, 94 IP, 4.31 ERA) vs RHP Sean Burke (16 G / 12 GS, 87.1 IP, 3.71 ERA)
Shane Baz went on a bit of a run recently, during which he started to look like the pitcher Mike Elias seemingly believes he is. From May 20th through June 18th, Baz pitched to a 2.39 ERA over six starts. He allowed just two home runs in that stretch and dropped his ERA from 5.26 to 4.04. Unfortunately, his last start against the Angels was a stinker. Baz allowed five runs in five innings. Here’s hoping that was a blip and not a return to the pitcher we saw at the start of the year.
Sean Burke was drafted in the third round in 2021 out of the University of Maryland. This means we usually wish him well, but not today. Burke has been in the rotation the full season, but sometimes starts behind an opener. He is coming off of two very strong games against the Guardians and the Yankees, in which he pitched a combined 13.2 innings with 14 strikeouts, two walks, and two runs. Overall this season, he has a K/9 of 9 and a BB/9 of 3.31. Burke faced the Orioles in April and allowed two runs in five innings.
Game 2: Tuesday, 6:35 pm
RHP Trey Gibson (7 G / 6 GS, 30.1 IP, 5.64 ERA) vs RHP Erick Fedde (16 G / 8 GS, 74.2 IP, 4.34 ERA)
This is not an inspiring matchup. With Dean Kremer waiting in the wings, Gibson is pitching for his rotation spot. The rookie can’t get deep into games and walks way too many guys. His last start was one where he was pitching ok and manager Craig Albernaz weirdly pulled him after four innings. The Orioles lost.
Erick Fedde is the old man of the White Sox rotation at age 33. He’s also their worst starter, currently. Fedde allows a good amount of both home runs and walks, and has a pretty high WHIP at 1.420. He’s the sort of starter I hope the Orioles can do damage against. Naturally, he pitched well against the Orioles in April, allowing two runs in six innings.
Game 3: Wednesday, 12:35 pm
TBD vs TBD
No starters have been announced for either team in this game. For the White Sox, it could be Noah Schultz. He has been on the IL since late May with patellar tendinitis. He has made three rehab starts, the last on Friday, and is expected to join the White Sox soon. This game matches up, schedule-wise. Before going on the Il, Schultz had a 5.82 ERA in eight starts. He is a 22-year-old rookie and a lefty, which seems like the perfect storm to shut down the Orioles. He’s also 6’10”, which is just fun.
As for the Orioles, Trevor Rogers started last Friday, which puts him on normal rest to pitch on Wednesday. He’s been on a good stretch of late, but the team likes to give him an extra day of rest. I expect to see Dean Kremer back from the IL for this start. Kremer pitched 6.2 shutout innings for Triple-A Norfolk last Friday and is seemingly ready to go.
How do you think the Orioles will do against the White Sox this series? Will they pull off another sweep to have a perfect season against the Pope’s favorite team? Or will it be the White Sox doing this sweeping this time around? Let us know how many wins you think the Orioles will get in the comments.
